Obama's Cool
Interesting take on how Obama's coolness throws off his political opponents.
Drezner on how Obama comes across as thoughtful even if he's wrong on the issue.
I'm holding onto my position that Obama will win this election by a sizable margin and will disappoint all of his supporters when governing.
5 comments:
Obama will be more of a centrist, or perhaps, a little left of center. I think the only ones who will really be disappointed are the folks on the far left, who will have a harder time dealing with the fact that their ideals will be tempered against an inherent pragmatism that comes with the job of being President. Especially at this moment.
I agree there is an inherent pragmatism that comes with being president, but I think more than simply the far left are exposed to being disappointed. Obama is foremost a cultural phenomenon - as opposed to a political one. I also think he is a historical figure...although whether he turns out to be Abe Lincoln or Mark McGwire is hard to tell at this juncture.
My gut instinct - he is destined to disappoint because he is glamorous.
Ironically, the stupid Brittney Spears comparisons McCain made early in his campaign, may, in the long run, turn out to be apt. I say this not because Obama is vapid...but because he supporters tend to project their hopes and dreams onto him as opposed to actually siding with him on specific political issues. You can see it in the way people support Obama. They are just hoping to death he wins and care little about what comes after.
When it comes down to it, experienced politicians have a couple of options: they absorb and accept the popular position OR they convince enough people their position is the best of all alternatives and push it through.
There isn't an ultimate "coming together" or "time for a change" or any sort of universal consensus to be had. All of of those bullshit slogans don't exist when it comes to governing and making decisions. It's all X's and Y's. Offense and Defense. Choices. Someone will always disagree for pragmatic, for philosophical, or for political reasons.
Obama supporters - at this juncture - don't admit that. They think Obama represents good and McCain represents more of the same. Should Obama win, he'll be restricted the same way all Presidents are restricted - by world events, popular opinion, Congress, foreign governments, their own advisors -- and he'll make decisions and sacrifices that despite being totally well thought out, will still be wrong.
And thus, for the very reasons many will vote for him - hope and change - these amorphous words will start to mean different things to different people and suddenly those who projected their specific hopes and dreams will come to find Obama's choices and limits won't match theirs and disappointment will follow.
I think towards the beginning of his campaign - certainly during the primaries, and then again in the early part of the general election - Obama's supporters were more enamored with the message and the potential of Obama than they are right now.
Don't get me wrong - I still think there are a good amount of his supporters who are only into him because of the burgeoning Obama mythos, as you alluded to. But given the economic downturn (which wasn't blazing hot to begin with), I think in the minds of some folks, a greater sense of their own self-interest comes into play. And with that, perhaps a greater clarity that sees through the veneer of hype. With respect to the economy, Obama has given a more detailed and thorough plan on how to approach and handle the economy, among other issues (though one could debate ad infinitum the validity of his proposed policies; I'm not going to go into that shit because it's too goddamn late).
I think one has to give Obama some credit for being able to adapt and make that moment - the economy - his own. McCain should have made the move first and it's costing him dearly. And, fairly or not, Obama's painting of McCain as "Bush 3" is a very shrewd move. Thus far, he's shown a greater ability to adapt to the moment, a critical ability for any successful politician.
To the point: I agree with your central notion that some people - and you're correct, it's more than just folks on the left - will ultimately be disappointed with Obama as President. Perhaps many more... Will he face tremendous opposition from Congress, the Republicans, his own party, his own advisors, other countries/leaders, acts of God, etcetera? Of course. That comes with the territory.
But I think the real reason for the potential for disappointment is because of the epic build-up for this guy... And maybe that was your greater point, or maybe not... Hell, I don't know. It's late as a mo' fo' and I'm too sleepy to re-read, or remember, all the posts.
But, as they say in sports, "that's why they play the game". We'll see what happens -- assuming Obama wins the election.
P.S. I messed up in the previous post attempt and, instead of double-posting the whole thing, I deleted the earlier post.
I suspect disappointment with Obama's governing - should he be president - will stem not from the massive build up for the guy (which is true) but rather the nature of the build up.
I think Obama means a lot of different things to a lot of different people - his supporters and detractors. And while most Presidents are bound to disappoint and all public figures must deal with public expectations that don't match reality, I think Obama is going to be especially challenged.
When Obama started this campaign, his support came from the anti-war section of the democratic party. His campaign gained it's initial momentum from his stance on the war and his promise to bring troops home. Should he be president he won't bring the troops home because of the reality of the situation on the ground. If he does - he will be throwing away the gains of the surge and could possibly lose a winnable situation. If he doesn't - he bites the hand that feeds him.
This is only one example - but there are going to be countless others - because people's expectations of the guy are not limited to the political sphere. He is a cultural figure as well as a historical figure first...and he can't help this. The weight of those expectations will also conflict with his job.
In any case, I just hope he wins and does a decent job governing. It'll be weird if there's a democratic congress
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