Tuesday, March 31, 2020

Empty Streets

So the streets of LA are fairly empty. Ideas:

1) Go on long bike ride to places I otherwise wouldn't.

2) Isn't this a good time to be fixing potholes, etc, instead of weekdays when there is massive traffic?

Sunday, March 29, 2020

Casual Thought

On the difference between film and tv - films meant to be re-watched for new meaning. TV meant to be consumed to see what comes next.
Best Corona Take

Here is the best take on coronavirus I've read so far. Fair warning: it's long and number heavy. But in summary his take is the following:

1) It spreads way faster than WHO estimates.

2) The vast vast majority of cases are incredibly mild.

3) Much of our public policy thus far is based upon faulty data.

I think this resolves sooner rather than later, here's how:

a) Cautiously re-open businesses

b) Wear masks

c) Create excess hospital capacity. Although most cases are mild, we still know for a fact, the bad cases get very bad.

d) Keep up the hygiene

e) Get testing up, although by his take, testing seems relatively less vital (although obviously still important)

f) Reduce super spreaders (need testing, ironically)

g) Not in his article, but it seems like some of anti viral cocktails help, and if so, will help mitigate the worst cases.

And I still believe in hindsight, the total economic shutdown will be overkill. A lot of folks will get sicker than usual, so we should improve sick pay and firms should overstaff with substitute folks.

Friday, March 27, 2020

Intermittent Social Distancing

These folks think we'll be with COVID on and off for awhile.

And even if it abates, it could come roaring back.

Concerning. But not without options to fight. A lot of my earlier suggestions could work - I'd be a huge advocate of the following:

1) Moving as many meetings online as possible.

2) Much stronger sick pay and encouragement from workplaces to stay at home if/when sick AT ALL.

3) Cleaning, cleaning, cleaning - much better hygiene all over the place.

And then this - a first hand account of an entire family with COVID in NYC.

It sounds quite a bit worse than your average cold /flu to me -- in particular in a place like NYC with hospitals overflowing. It reinforces that this initial 2 week lockdown was necessary to get a better picture of this situation
Spot On

How the media manipulates statistics to tell a narrative.

I saw the CNN headline about the US having the most coronavirus cases in the world right now. Two days ago, the line was about how the US didn't have testing going. But now that we have a lot more testing, the line is testing per population size.

So the media uses absolute cases when trying to beef up the terror and relative cases when trying to downplay the effectiveness of the response.

And how are the media and liberals reacting to the #metoo claims against Joe Biden. Mostly crickets. Contrast with Christine Blasey Ford - Brett Kavanaugh. Pretty transparent and gross.
Underrated Aspect of Storytelling

Weirdness.

Thursday, March 26, 2020

One Stat

I want to see the numbers of total worldwide deaths in -

2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023

To really understand the severity of this COVID thing.
Note

During the coronavirus, there was talk of shutting down the stock market.

A good reminder, if you need it - really really need it - that money you put in the market won't necessarily be there.

Cash is king.

Also note - do you think if a pandemic wipes out 4-5% of the population that the life insurance companies are paying those claims? Here's a hint. They aren't. They're running out of dough. And so are the reinsurance companies.

If nothing else, this COVID thing should remind us (or reveal to us) how fragile all this shit is.

Logging

TV Doc: Tiger King e.1-2

Watch it. Bonkers.
Pre-Existing Problems

Corona exacerbates (or highlights?) major preexisting American problems:

1) Healthcare system

2) Housing

3) Hygiene

4) Fiscal irresponsibility (public and private)

5) Lack of trust (between institutions and populace, elites and normies, experts and normies, media and people, political parties and each other, etc)
Paul Romer

On getting the economy going again. Good stuff, in good detail.

Although, I said a few days ago the keys were testing and masks, and yet he's the one with the nobel prize...
Question

For those who oppose any discussion or thought of getting the economy restarted before eliminating the virus - what is the health impact of sustained 20-30% unemployment?

Tuesday, March 24, 2020

A Statistic I'd Like To See

How many people - on average - die per week. Google numbers suggest 150K people die per day, so...1,050,000 million people per week die.

How many MORE people per week are dying since coronavirus?

WEIRD: I just stumbled upon this right after I asked.


Monday, March 23, 2020

Question

For those concerned about their 401ks, etc.

Is it preferable to have 500K plus future contributions earning 3-4% over the next 10-20 years or 350K plus future contributions earning 8-9%?

It's the latter. By a lot.
One Comment and I'm Done

All I'll say is that Jersey Shore is far superior than Love Is Blind.
Logging

Film: Good Time

Best I've seen Robert Pattinson. No better directors at casting small, side parts. I much prefer their work to Craig Zahler, which I think is a fair comparison.

Sunday, March 22, 2020

This Will Seem Insane, But I Think It's Not...

...In the last couple days, I've spent a lot time outdoors with my kids exploring our backyard and the neighborhood. I swear I've seen more animal activity (or is it just that I'm noticing it?). More bugs out and about. More spiders. More lizards. More worms. I imagine they somehow feel less human presence, less noise, less activity, and respond accordingly...
A Way to Get This Under Control

I can picture some combination of the following working within the next month:

1) Segregating best we can the most vulnerable to the disease, ie folks in nursing homes, autoimmune disorders, cancers, etc.

2) Testing various anti-virals and see which ones work best at stopping the disease if caught early.

3) Normalizing mask wearing in enclosed public spaces for a time period.

4) Warmer weather killing off the virus

5) Collective better hygiene supported by government and private business (I suspect no one will object). *

6) Better sick pay and stricter stay-at-home-when-sick policies at workplaces.

7) Widespread testing to catch any subsequent outbreaks quickly.

8) Better plans in place to increase hospital capacity should it be needed for now and future pandemics.

9) Train more hospital staff including doctors and nurses who already seem to me generally overworked.

10) Encourage fewer meetings in workplaces and instead using more zoom, conference calls, etc. For the record, SOME meetings are very important, but often these things can be done remotely. It might be better on multiple levels to encourage this -- 1) lower outbreaks 2) less traffic 3) less pollution 4) more efficient

*Shit - I'd be down for increasing the status and pay of janitors, etc, and possibly even doubling the number we currently have. I'd also be in favor of doubling the number of public toilets and people making sure they are clean all the time. Wouldn't this be nice? Think Japan. Such a project would be such a better use of resources than switching all bathrooms to gender neutral, which is nothing more than a giant, stupid exercise in vanity. It might even help with public heath more generally.

Saturday, March 21, 2020

For The Record

Not that anyone cares my societal coronavirus prescription, but here are some of my thoughts:

1) I support the two week "pause" our country is doing to prevent the health care system overload experienced in Italy and to help stop a "worst case scenario."

2) I don't think this stoppage is very sustainable from an economic and social standpoint.

3) In hindsight, I'm guessing the government response will be viewed as overkill, although it might take us a long time to get there.

4) If we had masks, testing, and some anti-viral treatments, I imagine we could get back to work.

5) It seems to me fairly obvious to repurpose cruise ships, hotels, etc, as temporary hospital type places where less severe coronavirus cases can go to recover.

6) A more intelligent way to provide economic assistance would be to target two sets of people: workers who lose their jobs because of this and the group that is particularly vulnerable to dying from the virus.

7) I view any data coming from China with deep suspicion.

8) Our preparation for this event was not very good.

9) I believe we as a country and individuals can grow and learn from the experience in several ways:

-Keep dry powder, ie resources for emergencies. For individuals this means emergency kits and emergency funds. For governments, I think it means getting some fiscal discipline in "non-emergency" times because we know what a real emergency now looks like.

-Do better at hygiene.

-Build extra capacity in the healthcare system


COVID 19

I can easily see the end result of the COVID 19 outbreak being a global loss of trillions of dollars impacting some of the most vulnerable in society the most in order to save perhaps 8-10 thousand lives. Maybe you argue that is worth it.

A good article on data vs. hysteria.
Stat

Heard on the radio this AM, we've done 195K tests and found around 20K people with the virus. Somewhat interesting to think about only 1 of 10 people who are symptomatic have it.

Sunday, March 15, 2020

Logging

Thought maybe it'd be interesting to log daily activities during corona outbreak.

Sat:
Quiet day
Family went on walk
Take out from Taiwanese restaurant (generous tip)
Avoided grocery store
Netflix and chill - The Other Guys

Sun:
Family breakfast
Chinese tutor for kids
Prepared for my online classes next week
Errands at Hardware store (empty)
Coffee at local coffee shop (packed)
Noticed gun store had line around the block
Got gas
Tree trimmers came to do yard work
Leftovers for lunch
bike ride with kid
cleaned garage (very good use of quarantine time)
mowed lawn, cleaned up outside
dinner with family
put kids down
grocery store trip (empty)
Random Thought

The man who spends money on a car and skimps on coffee is much less happy than the man who spends more on coffee and less on a car.
On Our Possible Overreaction to Coronavirus

Heather MacDonald.

Maybe she proves to be right, especially if the thing goes away with bad weather, etc. But you know what -- maybe it's a good test run for something truly awful. And a good reminder to stay healthy, flexible, hygienic not overextended, etc.
That Said...

...I can't believe we don't have testing and an abundance of masks already.
Note

Chinese critic of their coronavirus response has disappeared.

For all those voicing the opinion that the Chinese response is better, you are welcome to go live there for any period of time to demonstrate your stated belief.
Things To Do:

A few things I think are good to do during the outbreak:

1) Keep supporting local business. This keeps people employed.

2) Don't panic. The gun store down the street from me is packed. Do they realize the virus isn't afraid of guns?

3) Learn something

4) Stay connected with people

5) Sleep, eat healthy, exercise

Saturday, March 14, 2020

Things That Appear More and Less Valuable During Corona Virus Outbreak

MORE:

1) Advances in internet technology, ie video conferencing, streaming, etc.

2) Netflix and Amazon prime.

3) Information flow and sharing, ie wash your hands, social distance, etc.

4) Disaster prep

5) Cars (vs. public transportation)

6) Drive through and take out food options

7) Families, friends, and local support networks

8) Grocery stores, Costco, Target, etc.

9) Disposable stuff vs. reuseable stuff

10) Daycares and schools to our social fabric

LESS:

1) Our heathcare system, ie we are taking drastic measures in order to prevent it from being overwhelmed and there is a shortage of masks, etc, even at hospitals.

2) Ability of Feds and locals to cut through red tape to get simple things done quickly, ie tests, drugs...

3) Insurance. I have a project set to go into production and nothing can get insured at the moment. If there were a lot of deaths from a thing like a virus, would life insurance companies just go belly up and not pay claims?

4) Hourly jobs, but also contract jobs like most in the entertainment industry. A film pauses, no one gets paid, even those making huge salaries. I suppose "regular" jobs won't see this effect until/unless there were layoffs.

5) The public to manage their anxiety. The lines at grocery stores and over preparation strikes me as a way to feel like you're doing something to prepare not for any real reason other than "others" are doing it.

6)

5)


Friday, March 13, 2020

Corona Stuff

Schools and daycare around here all cancelled for 2-5 weeks at the moment.

Interesting twitter on why tests not available. Still don't get it. People in charge were slow to react on this front.

My perspective there has been pretty good public information exchange about hand washing, social distancing, etc.

IMO, cities like SF and LA ought to be planning for an enormous need for hospital beds, triage centers, etc like we were in a war. If Corona hits the homeless population, esp in SF, I could them overwhelming the health system real fast. The Presidio should be setting up tents, cots, etc now. I bet they aren't.

Grocery stores, Costco, etc, around here are crazy busy and there's a lot of tension and stress in the air.

Weirdly, having young kids kind of keeps you prepared for this stuff since they get sick so often, we have a lot of supplies on hand already. Still, if I see toilet paper or hand sanitizer, I'm buying a little.

My impression are people are hoarding too much.

I'm selling a little bit of bonds and buying a little bit of stock, which is probably dumb but I'm just that way.

The payroll tax cut seems to me a really pointless idea. I'd be more in favor of sending every American citizen $1000 right now no strings attached.

I'm hoping this 2 week *pause* buys us time to get good testing and some other best practices to get this more under control.

From what I understand, most young and healthy people will be fine even if we get the virus, but it's critical to not become spreaders of the virus because so many older people and folks with compromised immune systems are especially vulnerable. A truly great opportunity to behave as a good neighbor and responsible citizen and also be a model for kids and younger folks who observe how adults behave in moments of crisis. And it's a crisis.
Overheard

Hospitals are putting masks on lockdown for fear workers are stealing/hoarding.

Thursday, March 12, 2020

Corona Virus Tests

Federal Government fucked up.
After problems arose with the C.D.C.’s test, officials could have switched to using successful tests that other countries were already using. But the officials refused to do so, essentially because it would have required changing bureaucratic procedures. 
Remember: these are the folks in the deep state.

On a personal level - and I don't think making these calls are necessarily easy - but on Monday I suggested my school more classes that would be "easy" to move online and I got several bureaucratic responses about why we could not.

We have build a work culture that rewards or conditions those who act meekly versus those who act boldly. This - I think - has always been the case (see the Union Army during the Civil War) and it takes crises to see the flaws in this design.
Trump's Speech on Corona

On the scale of things, I thought it was pretty good and I'm surprised by the backlash and anger against it. In particular, the Don Lemon segment with Kasich seems particularly unhinged.

Lemon sounds like a whiny child. I can't believe this guy gets paid to do this.

Wednesday, March 11, 2020

About Myself

Listening to Patti Smith, Bob Dylan, Tracy Chapman, and Neil Young. I may have just discovered something about myself that explains a lot - my taste in art leans toward the revolutionary whereas my taste in politics leans toward conservative. Therein lies how my particular soul is divided.

Or, a different way to think about it - there is nothing worse, in my opinion, than a political progressive whose artistic taste leans conservative.

Random other thing: am I the only one who likes female singers covering Bob Dylan songs a lot?
Random Question

Whatever happened to Tracy Chapman?

Wednesday, March 04, 2020

Taiwan

Acted more aggressively early on and has much fewer cases of Coronavirus than her neighbors.

This episode suggests a number of things:

-Trump's instincts of a world with stronger borders is probably the right idea.
-Globalism increases the odds of certain types of catastrophes - ie disease spread, and yet also offers a number of solutions: ie good, fast flow of information about the disease
-Pretty clear the expansion of what might be called the Chinese political-economic system could have very very troubling global side effects.

Tuesday, March 03, 2020

Coronavirus and Racism

Asian man beaten up in London in racist attack.

Just want to point out, if you fear someone has the coronavirus, putting your hands on them is not the brightest of ideas.
Coronavirus

My general disposition leans toward calm, let's not panic. But I make exceptions for the following: pandemics, nuclear war, and children jumping on furniture.

Sometimes overreaction is the right reaction because the downside is high.

But by overreacting, I guess I'm just washing my hands more.
Logging

Film: Beasts That Cling to Straws

Saw at CGV Theater in Koreatown and it was completely empty. The entire mall. This was last Friday and speaking to the guy who works at Beard Papa, it was due to coronavirus fear.

TV: Curb s10.

Great.