Too Funny

"if ukraine is part of russia then russia is making the classic military blunder of invading russia"

Wuhan Market Theory

I still need to read the full report, but some additional papers leading credence to the Wuhan market theory of Covid origin. 

Look: I'm totally open to the theory. Still strange that of the 39,000 wet markets in China, it just happens that the new covid strain came from a zoonotic jump in a market 2 miles from the Institute of Virology. Statisticians will be needed to find out the odds of that happening...

Other elements to consider:

a) from what I can tell, this data suggests the virus spread happened at the market. Does that mean it originated from the market? Is it equally possible an employee from the Virology institute spread to someone in his/her apartment building who was a vendor at the market? Is this so implausible?

b) The fact that the type of animals that "could've" transmitted COVID does lend credence to the wet market theory. But some evidence of animals with the Covid strain would be nice. Still no smoking gun. 

c) Why is the case that animals that "could've spread" COVID a stronger possibility than a human vendor who could've had contact/a job at the virus institute?

d) Last, consider if the data had found the opposite conclusion: would we have read/had access to it?

Yikes

How Putin speaks with his spy chief.

I only speak like that to my kids when I'm really mad.

Canceling Putin

Feels like the twitterati (and remember, they have positions in government too) are getting a bit excited about canceling Putin. Consider a few things: he has nukes, he has nukes, he has nukes, and controls the largest country on the planet. 

If Putin were to go down, it ought to be left to the Russians. 

Maybe I'm Deluded

But twitter, youtube, etc seems to me among the more important battlefields on this war. 

In The Next Couple of Weeks

Seems like we will find out if the tweet is mightier than the sword. 

One thing Xi should be paying attention to: while the populist hatred of elites weakens Western politicians, the autocrats face a far greater threat because when their population turns against them the population knows it's kill or be killed.

There are so many possible outcomes of this Ukraine situation, but the odds of Putin's survival have gone down. Can one bet on such things?

Good Lord

As much as I'm rooting for the Ukrainians, our enemies/rivals (China and Russia) have a point about the scattered, not-thought-out US policy during Obama and Biden administration and how this contributed to current events.

Sad irony: so much of thought processes happening behind the scenes in the foreign policy establishment match very similar patterns of Democrat domestic politics. Here's the pattern:

1) Take an idealistic position without gaming out any repercussions to the idea. In this case, an EU-aligned Ukraine. Same thing with "defund the police."

2) When criticized for a dumb position, accuse the other side of being "traitorous" or "racist." In the case of Ukraine, calling Trump a Russian agent. In the case being against defunding the police, a "racist."

3) Lie, deny, misrepresent, and exaggerate to prove proposition #2: Russiagate, etc.

This is the most brutal part of the piece:

What did all these figures have in mind for Ukraine? The White House and U.S. foreign policy experts from both parties are united in claiming that Ukraine is a U.S. ally, a democracy, and a beacon of freedom, which are no doubt fine words to hear when you have been left to fight Vladimir Putin on your own. But to understand what Ukraine truly is, we must start where all geopolitics begins: by looking at a map.

The liberal mind exists in a perpetual unreality these days.

Putin and Russia

Not to brag, but I'm a pretty good Risk and Settlers of Catan player (just beat my family tonight). If I were running the show and wanted to geostrategically manuever in our present world crisis, here's what I'd do:

1) Offer Putin a way to honorably retreat. He's a trapped animal right now. Ukrainians are united against Russians. The West are united (for once) against them. His own soldiers know it. Russians are marching in the streets against the war. Oligarch's in his own country are questioning him. The price? I think Ukrainian neutrality and not being part of NATO should be offered in exchange for--

2) Russian neutrality with China. We need to drive a wedge between Russia and China. And in fact, one of my goals would be to bring the Russians closer to the US. I don't care that the Russians are weird and capable of great evil. In a bar fight, I prefer the asshole brawler on my side more than the other side. Instead of helping deescalate this present situation, the Chinese took the intel we shared with them on Russian troop movements and shared it with Putin. The payback for that type of betrayal in Risk or Settlers is to offer Russia our friendship and mercy, a way to get what they want and simultaneously pull them from the Chinese orbit. In the grand scheme of things, if things ever really get hot with the US vs China, we are going to want both Russia and India on our side (or at the very least, aggressively neutral). 

Underrated Still: The Founding Fathers

Perhaps the greatest political geniuses of all time. Ask a Ukranian about the value of the 2nd Amendment.

Various reports here and here of Russians taking some Ls.

Not sure if propaganda or not, but my general impression of Russian military prowess is they are better at defense than offense. And better at total war than limited war. 

Brutal Analysis On Ukraine From 6 Years Ago

Why the West is leading Ukraine down the wrong path. 

An aggressively neutral Ukraine would've benefited the West, Russia, and most importantly, Ukraine.

The US deep state (in this case the foreign policy blob) really seems to be wracking up Ls these past couple years.

Oscars

I am very much looking forward to all the Oscar winners thought on the Ukraine situation. 

Natural Selection At Work

"Disabled Portland Antifa protester, 60, who was shot dead at BLM riot 'by far-right FURRY, 43,' who was then shot and critically-injured by left-wing activist."

The World Now

When I was younger and read about the horrors of WW2, etc, I never imagined we would live through such awful, irrational times. Yet I can't help but fear we are very much headed that way. Here is a small story, but it speaks to a basic inhumanity unleashed by our own systems: an account of parents separated from their 11 month year old baby in Hong Kong because of a positive COVID test.

If vaccinated and otherwise healthy, there is no reason not to risk getting COVID to be with your baby. What kind of sick world thinks different?

And I guess my point is that I thought basic humanity would triumph over rules, fear, systems. Maybe it does in the long term...but those others things can sure fuck things up in the short and medium term quite a lot. 

US Women's Soccer

Getting $24 million back pay. Ridiculous of course. I think they should distribute some of the money to the high school boys team which beat them 5-0 in a training match.

But then again, this might be the last chance the women players stand to make any money at all -- especially if in a country of 330 million people, 11 decent men's soccer players all of a sudden to define themselves as transgender...

Logging

Film: Shoot To Kill

Holds up. Storytelling lesson: just make an evil ass bad guy and you're halfway there. 

Institutions

The biggest problems for all institutions is they begin to serve the interests of those employed by them above the mission itself.  

CDC Withholding Data From The Public

The New York Times reports that the CDC has published only “a small sample of the data” because it fears the public would not properly understand the data, that the public is too dumb.

I kind of suspect it's the opposite: the real fear is the public would understand the data and see the CDC is too dumb. 

Anti-Racism

Is the opiate for the upper middle classes.

Canadian "Emergency" Powers

Seems like the only emergency Trudeau wants to prevent is losing his job.  

Logging

Film: Power of the Dog 

A bit too subtle (or perhaps vague) and for my personal taste. Didn't totally buy the character twist toward the end. Found one major reveal to be entirely predictable given the times and nature of the movie business. Film beautifully shot. And I'm glad I saw it, but left thinking: who is this movie for? 70 year old NY Times readers? Are there really that many of them?

My General Impression

Of the Ukraine situation: Putin has put himself in a strange, difficult-to-win situation. I suppose he could provoke a war, win it, but where would that leave him? Holder of the world leader asshole championship belt? Does it shift the weight of Russian power? 

My best guess is that Putin sees himself as "winning" in the past 5-6 years by destabilizing the West and seizing Crimea, Georgia, and other former Soviet territory and yet, feels empty or feels like he has little to show for it. Instead, he feels generally threatened because his neighbors want to join NATO (is this a surprise given his prior behavior?) In short, he seems to be both pressing his advantage and paranoid. 

This will be one of the stranger wars -- it seems driven more by psychology than tangible desire. 

This Makes Perfect Sense

Some people at Oscars will need to be vaxxed and others won't. Because only those people who need to be vaxxed can spread COVID and the others cannot. 

The Way I Hope I Can Be 

Act a bit old when young and a bit young when old. 

Logging

Film: Nightmare Alley 

About 20 minutes too long -- one of the general perks of the noir genre is storytelling efficiency -- which Del Toro inexplicably veers from. Some characterization cheated for plot turns in a few moments that I didn't totally buy. Maybe I would've understood better on a bigger screen? Either I completely foresaw the ending from the moment Nightmare Alley was introduced or I've seen the original film and I for the life of me, cannot remember. All said, I quite enjoyed the movie. One of the better 2021 releases. Given the pandemic, this wasn't the worst of all possible years for movies...

SF

75% of San Franciscans voted to oust three Leftist idiotic school board members. Sanity reigns!

And yet you have commentariat at places like CNN claiming this is a right wing movement. In San Francisco! Is this a joke?!?

Trudeau

Seems like someone who would last about 2 episodes in Game of Thrones before his head was on a pike outside a vassal house castle in the North. 

Logging

TV: Gomorrah S5

Finished. Loved it. Finale only okay though. 

Film: A Prophet

Rewatch. More impressed this time around. Two incredible performances. I am a sucker for prison movies. 

Seizing Money

So I guess those folks concerned the anti-terrorism laws would one day be turned against citizens were right. 

Trudeau freezes truckers bank accounts.

The guy is a moron. And morons with power are dangerous.

Covid Policy

Instead of building, creative, sensible COVID policies Democrats think their job is to coerce people into vaccination and wearing masks. Republicans, on the other hand, think their job is to oppose Democrats.

Pussies

Somehow, I cannot imagine hip hop stars of yesterday like Tupac demanding an apology for Billie Eilish for casting a little shade. We're turning everyone in weak ass, passive aggressive cowards. 

Spotify

My understanding is you can listen to Bill Cosby and R Kelly on spotify. 

Logging

TV: Pam and Tommy

A quote from my wife - "Pam Anderson did not have a black and asian friend."

We've gotten to the point where we will be able to recognize the shows and movies from this era because they feature the exact same the ratios of character ethnicities in every goddamn show whether it is set in 1930s Iowa, 1800s Russia, 1990s LA, or 2022 New York City.

Thanks, DEI committees. Your crowning achievement.

"Science"

Watch how in the next year how all the people who were "all about the science" will make every effort to punish the unvaccinated and ban them from workplaces, schools, and participation in activities for no scientific reason other than retribution.

An Efficient Solution

To more or less all "progressive" concerns would be 2-parent households, but of course they'd never advocate any policies that would encourage such.

And in fact, do the opposite. 

Logging

TV: Gomorrah S5 E3-4

Loving it again. Feels like a show made for my exact sensibility. 

Joe Rogan

Show the man and I'll show you the crime.

And with all the n-word stuff, might as well go after Howard Stern as well. Right?

I Hadn't Heard This Story

But it hits rather close to home and sort of fills me with disgust, although it shouldn't. 

Basically, she's a hapa girl from California who opted to represent China rather than the US in the Olympics.

Racism

They keep changing the definition of racism back and forth, back and forth. Can we just get ahead of it for once and say what it now really means: disagrees with Democratic politicians.

Logging

Film: Dead or Alive (1999) 

Officially the most depraved, ridiculous action film I've seen.

I Don't See Why This Isn't A Bigger Deal

FDA and CDC purposely didn't provide data on natural immunity for fear it would disrupt the "everyone must get vaccinated" narrative.

And the truth is, as logic would suggest, natural immunity is 2-3x stronger than vaccination. 

Really disgusting behavior and when someone wonders why no one listens to public health officials, perhaps they need look no further than the mirror.

For The Record

I understand what Whoopi was trying to say.... What she said is dumb. But then again, anything just about anyone says on the topic of race is dumb. Why are people jumping all over her? I suppose it's because it's all we know how to do these days...

Who is India Arie?

Apparently she is pulling music from spotify as well.

Wokism reveals itself as a sort of business-RPG schtick that beats anonymity for those of diminished, or non-existent fame.