Counter Intuitive Thoughts on the Surge

I supported the surge and am happy to see it succeed to both prove myself right and bring peace to Iraq (in that order). However, it is also clear a great deal of the reduced violence in Anbar was the result of the Sunni Awakening and other on-the-ground mechanics that started long before the so called "surge."

Suppose Bush had caved to the overwhelming consensus that Iraq was a "lost cause," and the troops were part of the problem and not the solution. If we started pulling troops back we probably would have witnessed some on the ground reduction of violence as the effects of the Sunni Awakening take hold.

I don't think this scenario was entirely implausible. I don't think the US Army would have spurned the Sunni Awakening, even if we were drawing down troops. I'm sure we would have still supported it. Right now, the Democrats would be jumping for joy saying "ha! we were right all along - the troops were part of the problem. All we needed was to pull back sooner and the Iraqis would have worked it out themselves."

As it is, the surge went through and now gets credit for the success. It's tough to tell whether the surge helped multiply the success or simply happened to be at the right place at the right time.