Where the CDC At?

Agree with every word here.

California

Newsom does not deserve credit for slowing the rate of infection spread, California's car culture and lack of a subway deserves the credit.

Newsom

I don't disagree with four point plan. But I don't trust the guy at all. Quote:

“Politics will not drive our decision-making. Protests won’t drive our decision-making. Political pressure will not drive our decision- making,” he said.

So what drives "our" decision making? Whatever Newsom says?

I don't think the folks clamoring to reopen are making the Mayor from Jaws mistake. Rather, I believe the folks punishing those who disobey the lockdown are making the Edward Rooney from Ferris Bueller mistake.

Unpack This One

Gavin Newsom on the folks going to the beach this past weekend.

"I cannot impress upon you more, to those Californians watching, that we can't see the images like we saw, particularly on Saturday in Newport Beach and elsewhere, in the state of California," he added.

A lot of different ways to interpret.

Maybe Things Aren't All Bad.

Thank God for Trebek.

Food Supply

First they assured us we didn't need to worry about the virus.

Then they assured us we didn't need masks.

Then they assured us the food supply was safe.

It's not.

Logging

Reading: Monster by Naoki Urasawa and Stoner by John Williams

Both brilliant and I'm only getting started.

Logging

Film: Hypernormalization

Maybe in my top 5-10 docs of all time and certainly the most brilliant film I've seen this year.

My only quibble - Curtis sees the people in power as brilliant manipulators of a chaotic world whereas I believe they are more like the Wizard of Oz, shy little men hiding behind curtains.

Outrageous

First off, LA Times continues to impress with outstanding local Corona coverage. A good piece this AM about renters and landlords and the impact of the crisis. Very troubling situation.

That said, I also came across three little things that I find so frustrating and outrageous.

The CDC had a budget of 7.2 BILLION last year. And they couldn't build a COVID test.

Second, the majority of deaths related to COVID are coming out of nursing homes. Had we just done a more focused policy of devoting tests and resources to nursing home facilities, could we have prevented a whole lot more deaths, outbreaks, at a fraction of the cost?

Third, we are going to have meat shortages.

As frustrating and dumb as Trump is, the real story of COVID is the failure of American institutions.

My half baked ideas:

1) Fire the entire top brass of the CDC yesterday. Recruit Bill Gates (or someone of similar competence and stature) to take over. I am 100% serious. They need someone who with CEO experience, popular support, and a different way of looking at things. This probably sounds insane to anyone with experience working within government institutions. The only thing more insane is an institution with a budget of 7.2 billion failing at it's ONLY REASON FOR EXISTING.

2) Create 1 million new part time jobs. You think I'm joking. I'm reading about meat plants shutting down because of sick employees. These meat plants should be doubling their workplace tomorrow. They should be doubling the wages of workers. They should create housing options in abandoned hotels and college campuses for people to stay. If you get sick, you get paid for 2 weeks to sit on your ass and watch netflix while you recover.

3) The extended unemployment benefits should not just be handed out. CREATE JOBS! We need data on this corona virus, right? We should be doing massive data entry projects on symptoms, recovery times, experiences having the virus, what treatments are working, etc. People will say: it's too hard to train people. BOO FUCKING HOO. There are 22 million people collecting something in the range of 1k per week on unemployment. Spend that money ON SOMETHING. Here's an idea: a form that everyone who collects unemployment fills out tracking their symptoms of any type of sickness in their circle for as long as they collect unemployment. Will this information be useful at all? Maybe not. Maybe it will have all types of flaws. Or maybe it will tell us something deeply interesting about the virus -- at any rate, it would cost us exactly 0 dollars more than we're already spending.

4) Build 100 new toilet paper factories. 100 new diaper making facilities. Today. Start hiring. We are throwing billions at nothing, telling people to sit around. We should be building stuff. You say - that's inefficient - maybe we won't need it soon. SO WHAT! Build it, maybe it's useful for a short time, then wind it down again. You say people will get sick. I say: good! It'll help build herd immunity. I don't recommend people with heart conditions or diabetes go work at these places.

Things I Most Worry About

1) Not finding a vaccine or any type of silver bullet for a long time, if ever. I'm actually rather skeptical we will see anything soon.

2) Long term effects of COVID for those who recover. It attacks the lungs. You don't want to mess with your lungs.

3) The mortgage system going into default mode. How long can it sustain when people can't pay their rents/mortgages?

4) America's institutions being unable to tackle large problems anymore.

Less Unproductive

This week was probably my happiest/best coronavirus week. Maybe I'm getting used to it. But I did make an effort to change some things up that have helped:

1) Min 1/2 hour exercise each day
2) At least a little bit of work on original project per day
3) Reading and watching stuff outside my normal zone, ie Horror films, docs, Japanese manga

Part of the mental element that helped was focusing on just doing a little. I used to beat myself up over exercise -- like a long walk to me wasn't considered exercise -- but now I count it. Even if I work on only one scene in a script -- that's okay. That's something - better than nothing. And reading and watching. One chapter is okay. 15 minutes of a doc is okay. Something about that loosening makes me feel (and be) less unproductive.

The Data Are In

End the isolation.

Uuuu...

Tell me more.

“HyperNormalisation” is a word that was coined by a brilliant Russian historian who was writing about what it was like to live in the last years of the Soviet Union. What he said, which I thought was absolutely fascinating, was that in the 80s everyone from the top to the bottom of Soviet society knew that it wasn’t working, knew that it was corrupt, knew that the bosses were looting the system, knew that the politicians had no alternative vision. And they knew that the bosses knew they knew that. Everyone knew it was fake, but because no one had any alternative vision for a different kind of society, they just accepted this sense of total fakeness as normal. And this historian, Alexei Yurchak, coined the phrase “HyperNormalisation” to describe that feeling.  

I thought “that’s a brilliant title” because, although we are not in any way really like the Soviet Union, there is a similar feeling in our present day. Everyone in my country and in America and throughout Europe knows that the system that they are living under isn’t working as it is supposed to; that there is a lot of corruption at the top. But whenever the journalists point it out, everyone goes “Wow that’s terrible!” and then nothing happens and the system remains the same. There is a sense of everything being slightly unreal; that you fight a war that seems to cost you nothing and it has no consequences at home; that money seems to grow on trees; that goods come from China and don’t seem to cost you anything; that phones make you feel liberated but that maybe they’re manipulating you but you’re not quite sure. It’s all slightly odd and slightly corrupt.  

So I was trying to make a film about where that feeling came from, and I went way back into the past to do that. I borrowed the title from Mr Alexei Yurchak and called it “HyperNormalisation”. I wasn’t trying to say “Oh, we’re just like the Soviet Union collapsing”. I was just trying to show the same feeling of unreality, and also that those in charge know that we know that they don’t know what’s going on. That same feeling is pervasive in our society, and that’s what the film is about.

More Evidence

That coronavirus was in California a lot earlier than we previously knew.

LA Times is doing some good reporting on this story.

And then, there's this mystery: why Bali has so few cases despite numerous visitors from Wuhan.

Are experts not revealing something about the virus for public health reasons or do they not know?

Possible ideas:

1) Different strains?
2) Really hurts people with compromised immune systems (but aren't there people in Bali with compromised immune systems?)
3) Weather?
4) Space and geography playing a critical role
5) Deliberate Chinese attack on NYC

Only sort of just kidding about the last one.

"Racism"

As a way whites have started competing for status with each other.

China Preparing For War

Preparing? I'd say they're starting.

I think we ought to begin by recognizing Taiwan.

Second, we ought to start shaming any Western Business who sucks up to China.

We begin a courtship of both Russia and India.

Use our major advantage: all their neighbors hate them.

We need to start boxing them in yesterday.

A Condition of Federal Help

Ought to be small businesses MUST rehire any worker let go during the coronavirus.

Because I have a feeling, they won't rehire everyone and will still take the bailout.

Work

I don't usually post about work, but I've been invited to a zoom meeting to discuss zoom fatigue.

Sigh,

And Then There Were Four

Boston homeless shelter test again demonstrates more antibodies in asymptomatic patients.

Are all four studies plus the Diamond Princess data subject to the same flaw? Perhaps in testing? If not, that's already FOUR indications the death rate may be WAY LOWER than we expected and we are closer to herd immunity IN SPITE of the lockdown policies.

Would it be the irony of ironies if the way we get beyond this coronavirus is herd immunity that occurred because of the inability of governments around the world to react quick enough? That is to say, the initial slowness to react is the policy that allows herd immunity and the lockdown proves to be too little too late to stop the spread, thus allowing herd immunity to build (vs. not build in an effective lockup or track and trace?)

I suppose history will tell.

NOTE: This is not my position, but it strikes me as not totally beyond the realm of possibilities.

Logging

TV: Run pilot

Skip it.

That's Three

In addition to the Santa Clara finding and the Germany finding, now Los Angeles also has data that suggests COVID is more widespead (without symptoms) that commonly understood.

While all sorts of REALLY SMART PEOPLE are contorting themselves into the position that the Santa Clara dad is flawed -- the presence of three separate studies finding very similar results suggests there may be more to this. Especially if you add it to the Princess Cruise Ship situation where only a small percent of exposed people showed symptoms.

Liberate

Question for anyone in favor of reopening business: do you favor reopening schools and daycares? I suspect no is quite ready for that yet...

Bill Maher 

To his credit, often will comment on the excesses of both liberals and conservatives and in this case, the media.

Reopen...

My fear with extending the lockdown is that we are simply prolonging the pain. We need to view the lockdown for what it is: forcibly keeping a lot of vulnerable people and business from making a living. It's an incredible stress on parents, families, workplaces.

So what are we achieving?

Certainly, we are preventing the spread of the virus in the short term. We're saving lives. It's given us some time to gain intelligence about the virus, how it works, some medical strategies for fighting it, best hygiene practices, etc.

And in the long term everyone seems to think there will be a vaccine, but no one knows when. Ok.

We're left with the medium term. We cannot close the economy until the vaccine arrives. Anyone who advocates such an idea is totally clueless.

What is the benefit of waiting another week? Another month? Another 6 months? What can we hope to have in 6 months? More testing? Test and trace? Herd immunity?

Will test and trace work better than simply monitoring for fever and cough?

There seems to be this "wise consensus" that once we reopen we need to stay reopen. Why? Why can't we reopen and then close again if there are signs the hospital system will be overwhelmed. Why is that so bad? Or, should I say, so much worse than alternatives?

Maybe our crazy chaotic country is working just right by testing my hypothesis in Florida.

Re-Open America

I'm beginning to fall into the camp of right now.

The reason we closed was to prevent the hospital system from being overwhelmed. It's not overwhelmed.

Wears masks, wash your hands, stay home when sick.

Vulnerable population: be careful.

Dumb Local Policy

I went to the La Canada watershed yesterday to find it was closed due to coronavirus.

Is there any demonstrable evidence that outdoors hiking areas are prone to virus spread?

This seems to me a gross overreaction by local authorities.

Logging

Film: The Fog

Not amongst my favorite JC movies.

But it did prompt me to watch the final scene of THE THING.

Logging

Film: The Exorcist

Yeah, good.

Stock Market

Has gone up and down at times the last couple weeks between 5-10% points in a single day and I've become almost completely inured to it.

Logging 

Film: Portrait of A Lady On Fire

A good film but maybe not that fun to watch for me.

Logging

Film: The Mist

Not great, but incredibly memorable ending.

TV: Tiger King

Trying to forget it. First two episodes hooked me and the rest made me feel incredibly depressed.

Corona Take

We can't keep closed forever. 1/3 of renters didn't pay their rent on 4/1. Such a state of affairs cannot last very long. So either, we're gonna have bankruptcies and unemployment into the 25% range OR...

We can:

1) Wear masks

2) Continue what work we can online

3) Create more segregated hospital space for corona folks

4) Keep sheltering in place if you have the resources to AND/OR are vulnerable

5) Wash our hands.

6) More generous and strict sick policies - ie - anyone remotely suspicious of virus, stay away

7) More testing

What I don't know what we do about: Schools. Kids will not follow social distancing rules. Not enough of them at certain ages. 

Buying Baby Chickens

People are doing it.

Our political leaders are giving us every signal they don't actually know how to get us back to normal. So why not?

Taiwan

A Presidential litmus test for me is going to become whether they want to recognize Taiwan as a country.

Thing To Remember

Bond ETFs traded at a 4-6% discount last week.

When shit hits the fan, things considered "safe" aren't really that safe.

Which explains the lines at gun stores.

And speaking of gun stores...think of the trajectory in narratives post COVID. Has there ever been a time when more contrarian or against-the-grain "calls" were right?

Those racist idiots worried about the Wuhan virus? Were right.

Those paranoid dummies wearing masks? Were right.

Those organizations canceling and shutting down workplaces fast. Were right.

Those people hoarding toilet paper. Were actually kind of right since we have a shortage...and not all due to them.

Real Estate

There is a part of me that would like to own rental real estate.

But I imagine I'll never pull the trigger. Why?

Because the state government just suspended the requirement that tenants pay rent.

What about the owner who must pay the mortgage?

Suspended, too, I suppose.

What about the banker who issued the mortgage?

The buck stops somewhere...supposedly.

More on Masks

People of color not wearing masks.

Between someone thinking I'm criminal and getting a disease without a cure, I know which one I'm opting for.

On NPR and elsewhere, I hear this discussed as an issue of "racial disparity in healthcare," when in fact it is obviously bad information spreading in the African American community (of which I have heard anecdotal stories).

Masks

Gotta admire the speed with which we went from "masks are stupid and pointless" to the LA Mayor making it against the law to go out in public without them.

I Think This Is Right

I'll admit to being partial to some of the coronavirus conspiracies and mysteries. My two personal favorites being it was created in a disease lab in Wuhan and accidentally broke out and the it's already been in California a long time...but...here's a good thread on why none of them are likely to be right.

This statistic tells me a lot - average NYC deaths per day are 20-25, and now we're looking at 200. Pretty much end of debate as to whether "this is just a normal flu" and to whether social isolation was necessary. It was.

As for why California isn't getting hit harder - could it simply be the lack of a subway system? The "it's already been here, herd immunity argument" doesn't work - we would've quite simply seen more death. This week alone, I've seen 3-4 ambulances in my neighborhood. That's abnormal. Something is happening.

Finally Someone Is Catching On

Global conglomerates are being manipulated and controlled by China.

One reason you often here people say movies are better than tv is that tv at least is written for the American audience while movies have been written for the Chinese for a long time now.

Overwhelming the Healthcare System

Question: without a cure, what kind of care are COVID patients receiving at the hospital? Help breathing with a ventilator machine? Does this help patients recover? I guess my big question is whether hospital care helps more patients or infects more healthcare workers at this point.

Way To Go, CNN

Watch a CNN reporter hector church goers.

One wonders why he didn't do the same to NYC Subway goers or all the folks I saw at Whole Foods this morning.

Condescending asshole.

Okay

Surgeon General says this will be "Pearl Harbor moment."

He said something similar last week.

And even if it gets bad, Pearl Harbor strikes me as the wrong comparison, because it would be hardly out of the blue.

Logging

Film: A Fistful of Dollars

Liked it better upon this re-watch than I remembered.

Optimism

I wrote that prior post two days ago and forgot to post it.

There's an article the LA Times today about a young couple with a toddler who both got corona virus. Both suffered from severe symptoms and luckily recovered. But the article raised an issue close to home - who takes care of the kid when both parents go down? Particularly because the kid herself was probably a carrier...

The article ended with the parents being grateful because it wasn't worse.

But it got me thinking.

This virus spreads fastest amongst families. Duh. And it's deadly and debilitating. And it's everywhere.

So why haven't we heard MORE stories of kids not being cared for? Surely there are young children whose parents have the virus. Who is caring for these children - in China, in Italy, in NYC? What is happening?

My suspicion - the virus for many is a very bad cold. The virus either doesn't spread as hard or fast as "worst case scenario" folks anticipate. A lot of folks get the virus, but barely notice. Or some combo.

Something is up.

Pessimism

My pessimism has grown over the past couple days over the virus. Most of my anger and frustration directed toward our "elites" and politicians for their total lack of competence. Or perhaps it should be directed at our culture for valuing partisanship/ideology over competence. As far as I can tell, our trajectory on this virus things is as follows --

1) All the "smart" folks telling us not to worry about it.

2) Then, suddenly, after it is way too late, our country panics into "social distancing," ie shutting down 50% of the economy to prevent overwhelming the healthcare system.

3) Meanwhile, it's not clear hospitalization and the use of ventilators even saves lives with this virus.

4) Meanwhile, we have a toilet paper shortage because apparently, a country who could once put a man on the moon, finds it difficult to re-package commercial toilet paper for home consumption. Is this a joke?

5) And apparently this same country can't make enough masks, ie cloth filters with rubber bands to keep our doctors and nurses safe to see patients, either.

Let me put it another way - what element of this whole situation has impressed me? Using my eyes, the only thing that's been somewhat impressive is the rapid way most folks adjusted into the social distancing guidelines when it became apparent we had to take this plan of action. And I'm somewhat impressed by ZOOM, except for the fact that it's hacking all our information.

So on some microlevels things are working...but it's the macro stuff that bugs me. For awhile, I was giving everything a pass -- this was an every 100 year event that was difficult to plan for -- but was it, really? The more I see, the folks who were supposed to keep their eyes out for this stuff were primarily concerned with covering their asses, following rules, and keeping their jobs.

Yes, I Have Become That Guy

Who admonishes his kids for not eating their food by telling them there are hungry people in the world.

Highly Speculative

Is China trying to start a war with America?

It would be a political and military blunder on the scale of the American South seceding or Hitler invading Russia.

And if their pretext were that we infected them with the Wuhan virus, we should arguably do what they accused of us...only worse.

COVID Stuff

Is the story about COVID ultimately going to reveal how the United States has become utterly incompetent at multiple levels? See link on why there are mask shortages.

Remember, too, what we are talking about - a cloth filter with rubber bands. It's not a rocket ship.

Mystery: why aren't we seeing more COVID in California given it was one of the early states with COVID and has a lot of immigration from China? Possible theories:

1) Social distancing is working
2) Something about California geography and culture make disease spread harder than in NYC
3) The testing is so crummy the numbers are off.
4) The strain of the virus here is weaker
5) The weather here affects the virus in some way
6) We are just a few days or weeks behind and the explosion will be similar
7) An out there theory that herd immunity has already taken a bit of hold in California and we've been living with the virus for longer than we knew.