Goals vs. Strategy

Finished listening to Obama's Afghanistan Speech...it was long and I cannot cover it all, but a few basic thoughts. His plan: Add 30,000 troops to shift the momentum away from the Taliban and help train the Afghani Army in order to begin withdrawing troops in 2011. In short (and oddly, he doesn't mention this), it is the same "surge" blueprint Bush pulled in Iraq. Surge to create a space for Sunni/Shiia reconciliation, avoid Civil War, dismantle Al Queda, and allow a nascent government to form. One other note on Iraq - he pointed out how he didn't support Iraq and lamented the divisions it brought within this country and the world, but on the other hand suggested that because the mission was a success, we are able to bring the troops home. I found that a bit strange.

But onto the issue -

1. Obama is confusing (or misrepresenting) his goal as a strategy. His goal is to bring the troops home so we can concentrate on more pressing domestic issues. His strategy - is to surge troops, hope we can swing the momentum back around, pray the Afghan center holds, and bring the troops our respectably. He says bringing the troops home on a timetable is a strategy to put pressure of the Afghanistan government to get it's act together and keep it's own house. That is inaccurate and misleading. And if it were true, there would be no reason to surge troops. It would just be a matter of setting up a timetable for withdrawal. The whole idea of a timetable has always been illusory, a way to "sell" a troop pull out.

2. A perfectly respectable goal, by the way. I rather wish he would just say it - my goal is to bring the troops home without allowing the Taliban to recapture the country. That is his goal. He explicitly says he doesn't expect to wipe out the Taliban or Al Queda by 2011 when we pull out. I do wish he didn't couch it as a strategy. And I also think there are smarter strategies to achieve the stated goal than the troop surge, but I suppose that is up to debate.

3. Wiping out Al Queda and the Taliban. I think McCrystal's request for a troop surge is designed at eventually wiping out Al Queda and the Taliban from Afghanistan they way Al Queda was destroyed in Iraq. That is, getting their allies to turn on them and coupled with American power, crush them. This, however, was not Obama's stated goal (nor Bush's by the way). I am behind this goal, but for whatever reason, smarter people than me seem to think it is unachievable. I'm not exactly sure why, but I think it has to do with Pakistan...in fact, I know it has to do with Pakistan. It benefits them to keep Al Queda around because a) it indentures the US towards them (vs. India) and b) it serves as a tactical threat towards India, their more powerful neighbor and rival. So in the absence of being able to achieve this goal, it makes me wonder what a troop surge is going to do in the long run. So long as Pakistan has an interest in keeping the Taliban and Al Queda around, those forces are going to be expansionary and will try what they are doing today in 2013.