Win What?

Anthony Cordesman, a top U.S. academic and adviser to Gen. Stanley McChrystal, writes in the Times of London that in order to win in Afghanistan, the U.S. should add "anywhere from three to nine brigades above the 21,000 additional forces that President Obama approved in the spring of 2009." The latter figure represents an additional 45,000 troops.

Say we dump all these troops in and "win" in Afghanistan. What have we won? What is the ripple effect? What do we gain strategically? What constitutes winning?

Strange as this sounds, I understand and know the answers to these questions with respect to Iraq. In Iraq, winning meant sending a shock-wave through the Arab Middle East, the nerve center of Islamic Terrorism. It meant putting Mesopotamia into the hands of the more liberal democratic elements of the middle east (mind you, this is not saying much) as opposed to leaving it to a Fascist Thug who supported terrorism and instigated war against the West and his own neighbors as a matter of habit. The potential ripple effect is putting the scare to other dictators in the region (Khaddafy and the Saudis) and empowering other more liberal-minded in the region (Iran). What do we gain strategically from these developments? A lot. Friendlier business partners. Oil. Local allies against the most extreme of extreme. Counter-insurgency practice. Intelligence assets. New technologies that work against assymetrical enemies. And what constitutes winning? Every single day the central government of Iraq holds and Al Queda are on the run.

Now what can be said of Afghanistan? What is the difference to us whether the Taliban are in control of a sliver of the country or a section? Can we eliminate the Taliban from Afghanistan? NO. Just like we cannot eliminate the Sunnis from Iraq. But we just about eliminated Al Queda in Iraq because they were basically a foreign presence. And as far as I can tell, we also eliminated Al Queda from Afghanistan as they are now in Pakistan. Or are we now calling this Af-Pak? Are they one and the same? Who are the Taliban, then? There is Mullah Omar's group, but they are not the same as those who are operating in Pakistan right now, correct? And who are the ones operating in Afghanistan right now? It is very confusing and no one is explaining a thing. Or asking questions.