Post-Game Analysis Modern Art

Modern Art is a super complex game. It would be interesting to tape a game and go back and do math calculations backwards to see who made what kind of money where during the game. It is way too complicated to do it by memory. I wonder if the game is decided more by "big scores," or a couple of big sales or by an accumulation of "small scores," ie limiting losses. My suspicion is that there is actually a correlation between "big scores" and "small scores," that in fact, it isn't an either/or situation. That "big scores" are largely unpredictable and tend to occur more often at the same rate a player is able to land a "small score." I'd also be curious to see the ramifications of blunders, ie, can one hugely bad play screw up the entire game for a player? Or can players recover from bad plays. Also, how risk-adverse or risk-taking plays shake out. For instance, in monopoly, generally-speaking, risk-adverse players tend to lose because they do not own enough property. But how do different playing styles effect the Modern Art game. Is there an optimal strategy? Or do you need to constantly react to the psychology of the other players and manipulate the market in that way? In short, does math/value or perception carry greater weight and account for the end result. I'd also be curious to see an individual tally about how each player made their money - through end of round sales or during the game auctions. This would provide an interesting insight, I'd imagine.

I also think the early round auctions play a greater role in the outcome than suspected. Obviously late game plays end up having a huge impact deciding which paintings have value at the end of the round. But early round plays dictate these later auctions. It's an always interesting scenario when three different artists are on the board and whether to introduce a fourth artist, guaranteeing at some point some painting is going to be worthless. These plays shake up the dynamic of a round and end up having huge long term ramifications. Essentially, I think this decided the fourth and final round last night. D was probably in the money lead or at least close to the money lead going into the last round. Her first two purchases in round four were highly popular artists in prior rounds, and if either one finished among the top three, would have been worth considerable money. She paid moderately high prices for their early paintings with this in mind. However, she got stuck in a trap. She basically banked on one of those artists placing early on in the round and the two other players had no interest (and actual incentives in the other direction) to see those artists NOT place. As our turns came up, we introduced other artists into the fray and without enough cards to protect her original investment, D, was stuck watching the other artists accumulate value and her early investments become worthless.

The choice to end a round is obviously a big one as well. Sometimes "cashing out" to protect your investments is wise. But you also sacrifice a potentially lucrative auction. Bearing this in mind, sometimes it may be to a players advantage not to over-invest in a particular artist and to not have a huge stake in the "end-round" strategy. In effect, to position oneself to neither hugely benefit or hugely lose based upon how the round itself ends. This is actually an interesting strategic approach one can take - concentrating instead on small marginal victories and position versus taking down a big score. This way, you don't need to ever end the round and can plan on making large sales towards the end of the round as the other players position for the end game. Alternatively, a player who wants to go for the big score or who is playing from behind and needs to cash in with a big score, might focus on buying lots of a single painting very early on in a round and then try to compound the score by throwing out a double auction at some point. They try to end the round early and minimize the sales other players are able to make and cash in by selling a big collection to the bank.