Tuesday, January 10, 2012

New Orleans-San Francisco

What a great build up to this game. This game can go so many different ways.

Pro-49ers point of view: The Niners have come to play in every single game this year. They simply do not have major letdowns. There is a reason they went 13-3 and secured the number 2 seed. Jim Harbaugh has them prepared for every single game. He is going to bring some trickery to the play calling. Their three losses are as follows - Cowboys in overtime that required a major comeback and some crazy plays by Romo. A Ravens Thursday night game where the Ravens D was possessed, the Niners had injuries on the O-line, the subplot of coaching against his older brother, and the game still hinged on two weird penalty calls that overturned a long bomb and an interception. The closest thing to a let down was the Arizona game where the Niners still only lost by 2 points, but gave up some big plays in the secondary and failed to convert in the red zone during the first half. Halftime score of that game - 9-0.

The Niners have the best defense in the league and a surprisingly good ball possession offense. They are built to keep the Saints offense off the field. They can run on the Saints all game long with the tandem of a rested Gore and Hunter. They have the best special teams in the league, they force turnovers, they are rested and relatively healthy, they have home field advantage and the Saints are not going to be as unstoppable on grass. We've seen teams like this win over and over in the playoffs - the Jets beating New England, the Giants beating New England, the Ravens beating New England, Seattle beating New Orleans, the Saints beating the Colts.

Another factor - consider the Niners almost beat the Saints last year in a Monday Night game that was blown by dumb play calling by Singletary. That won't happen with Harbaugh. Also consider, the Niners provided the blue print the Saints used to beat the Colts in the Superbowl - that year - the Niners lost to the Colts 18-15 in a weird game. My point - the Niners have experience playing in these games from the past and this year are much, much better.

Lastly, the Saints can make mistakes and the Niners live off other teams mistakes. You saw moments when Brees made some bad plays against Detroit and Detroit could not make the turnovers and make them pay. The Niners will make those plays. The Niner defense is the best in the league and will be pumped out of their minds. New Orleans has not faced a defense this good.

Pro-Saints point of view: The Saints are the hottest team in the league. They did not punt against Detroit. No matter how good the Niners defense is, they will not be able to stop the arsenal of the Saints. The Saints will wear down the Niner defense, who does not substitute very much, and will expose their secondary. The Niners have not faced a single top offense this year - New Orleans, New England, Green Bay, or Carolina. The Niners got beat long by John Skelton and Larry Fitzgerald - a much weaker set of weapons the Saints are going to be able to throw at the Niners. The Saints have an awesome tight end and Sproles. As good as the Niner linebackers are, they will not be able to stop them all day.

Also, the Saints killed the Niners in pre-season. They are going to pressure Alex Smith all game and force him to make plays. Who thinks Alex Smith can outduel Drew Brees? No one. The Niners have no deep threat. The Saints will gear up to stop the run and force the Niners into 3rd and longs all day like the Ravens and then blitz Smith, who will eventually make a mistake or take sacks. The Niners cannot blow out the Saints, so even if the game is close at halftime, New Orleans still feels like it can win because the Niner d will get tired in the 2nd half and the Saints can light it up quick like they did against Detroit.

Sean Payton will also come up with some good play calls. They are going to go for it on 4th and short to lengthen their possessions and wear down the defense because he has so much confidence in his offense.

Keys to the game: The Niners need to win the turnover battle to win and need to run the ball effectively. Alex Smith must make a few plays. The Niners have done this all year, so it is not outside the realm of possibilities. The Saints need to tire out the Niner defense in the first half with long drives and no huddle and making fourth down conversions.

Anything is possible in this game, except for a 49er blowout. History suggests, the Niners could be in for a huge letdown as they are new to this situation and New Orleans is playing at such a high level, and have so much experience. But the Niners haven't had a huge let down this year and Harbaugh has had his teams prepared for big games - remember how Stanford played in recent bowl games.

Should be a fun game.

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