Monday, March 24, 2008

I'm Number 1

In my 5 person, $5 per bracket NCAA pool. Hooha.

My tenuous lead at the sweet 16 pretty much ensures I will not win the whole thing. I know this. Unless UCLA wins.

Side note - I think I can develop a better NCAA pool with weighted points, giving an advantage to picking upsets. The point of NCAA pool, in my estimation, is to increase the fun of watching games...to this end, it is awfully boring to watch the Duke games where your heart is rooting deeply for them to lose, but since you picked them to go far, you're head wants them to win.

I want to develop a pool which advantages emotional picks (over intellectual picks), so you can go with you heart and thereby increase the overall enjoyment of watching the tourney. But also - you gotta keep it simple - so people can follow the rules...

In theory...every year a single 5 seed beats a 12 seed....right...so the smart bettor, not knowing which 5 will beat which 12, safely picks all the five seeds and will be a 75% winner (generalities, here). But why should such picking be rewarded? Should it not be equal to pick all 12 seeds and get a "weighted" victory equal to picking all 5 seeds? We're talking about odds. I will work on this and by next year have a prototype tournament that I will run for all to enjoy...

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

one place to start might be the historical upset percentage of each 1st round seeding matchup:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NCAA_Men%27s_Division_I_Basketball_Championship#First-round_games