Saturday, June 02, 2012

Kobe - A Retort

Many people still think Kobe Bryant is the best player in basketball.  But let's do a little thought experiment.  Of the teams left, ie the best four teams in the league (basically), what would Kobe do in lieu of their top player(s)?

Miami.  It should be obvious, if Kobe and LeBron swapped positions in Miami, the Heat would not be as good as presently constructed.  Therefore, LeBron is a better and more valuable player than Kobe.  If you applied the vice versa and imagined the Lakers with LeBron instead of Kobe?  NBA champs, no question.

A more interesting question - imagine Miami with Kobe rather than Wade.  Or the Lakers with Wade rather than Kobe.  To be honest, I think it is basically a toss up.  Therefore, Wade and Kobe are about of equal value.  Wade is younger, but Kobe is healthier.

Boston.  Imagine Kobe on Boston instead of Pierce.  Are they a better team?  This is actually a really tough question.  Kobe is probably a better all around player than Pierce at this point, but there is something Pierce gives to Boston -- you kind of can't imagine the team without him.  He is the soul.  So I'm not sure they are better with Kobe.  Are the Lakers better with Pierce?  Let me say this - they'd probably get bounced in the second round by a team like OKC in about 5-6 games.

Kobe for Ray Allen makes Boston better.  We can safely say Kobe is better than Ray-Ray.  Kobe for Rondo or Garnett does not make Boston better, but that is because of position, not really skill or bball talent, so it is probably an inappropriate form of analysis...

OKC.  No way Kobe makes OKC better if you swapped him for Durant.  Durant on the Lakers.  True Laker fans just creamed their pants.  Durant is better than Kobe.

Kobe for Westbrook is actually an interesting question.  Kobe is a better player today than Westbrook, but I think Westbrook fits for OKC and doesn't make them better.  Another positional conundrum - it almost doesn't quite make sense.

Spurs.  You wouldn't swap Kobe for Parker or Duncan at this point.  It would make the Spurs worse.  Kobe for Manu straight up would be interesting, but it would throw off the entire Spurs chemistry.  Kobe wouldn't work there - not how he plays now.  He simply would not improve their team if it required any major subtraction.  Which sort of makes my point about Kobe - how he is a difficult teammate and player to build around.

So here is my conclusion.  Durant and LeBron are head and shoulders above Kobe in terms of value to their team.  They are the two elite players (perhaps throw in Dwight Howard when he isn't injured), who any team would take for any single player.  They are blue chips.  Chris Paul isn't quite there, as much as I love the guy.  Because you throw in Durant, LeBron, and Dwight and your team is a threat to go to the finals.  Period.

The players who their team would not obviously trade for Kobe or at the very least, it would be about a wash:  Pierce, Wade, Westbrook, Parker, Duncan, Ginobli

Therefore, I put Kobe in terms of NBA value in this second group and clearly not in the first group.  But of all the second group guys, the only one who gets continually put in the first group is Kobe.  Duncan belonged in the first group for many years, but the guy is 36 for chrissake.

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