Mullahs Are In A Box

The Iranian mullahs are in a box. I would not want to be them right now.

In 2006, the Mullahs were in great shape. They were bleeding us in Iraq and we were on the verge of running away with our tail between our legs. In fact, if there was a Presidential Election in 2006/07 the Democrat would have run on pulling out of Iraq and won the election. The Iranians would have had a larger influence in the post-US occupied Iraq and tried (perhaps successfully) to make it a client state. This would have given them enough time and enough cover to make a bomb. With a bomb and oil money from Iraq and Iran, Iran would have ascended to be a real world power. Or, in 2006, they could have made a deal to with the US to stop killing our troops, mutually buy a peace in Iraq, halt nukes, and probably get normalized relations. Could have staved off death to the regime another 20 years at least.

But like all fanatics, they can trace their downfall to themselves. First, they created too many enemies for themselves. They were orchestrating killings of US troops and Sunnis in Iraq, sewing bitterness and rivalry. Eventually, the fears of the Sunnis caused some of them to team up with the US and push AQ out. Note - this wasn't all directly about Iran, but they certainly didn't do themselves any favors by killing lots of Sunnis. Second, they put this nutjob, Ahmadinejad on the world stage forcing Western nations together to oppose his lunacy, whereas there are a number of ways to divide Western thought on Iran. Third, they rigged an election they probably would of won anyway and turned their own citizenry further against them and turned some of the Qom mullahs against them as well. Fourth, they keep trying to get a nuke, and empowering Israeli hardliners who will without a doubt, preemptively attack Iran if they believe Iran is on the verge of having a nuke.

Today, they are in a box. They can't stay the present course, as their own citizenry will ultimately toss them out. Therefore, they need to get more extreme, either by cracking down or developing a nuke and provoking a war. If they provoke a war with Israel, they are going to be smashed to smithereens. If they just go to the brink and punish internal dissent, they'll get sanctions by the rest of the world (who knows if they'll be effective in terms of hurting the regime or the people of the country...sanctions famously helped prop Saddam up). They could halt the nuke deveolpment and seek a deal with the West? But they are in a much worse position than in 2006-2007 and we'll bend them over the table if they want a deal now.

I don't see a favorable out for them right now. This is both bad and good. Those trapped tend to do reckless things. Then again, they may fall.