Manning Got Into Belichick's Head

What an awesome football game. Manning leading the Colts from 13 down in 4 minutes to victory was Montana-esque. I can't remember such an impressive come back - against a longtime rival. The most remarkable element was something Manning didn't do intentionally - he got into Belichick's head and got him to make a super risky call. By driving so easily for that 1st score, Belichick knew he didn't want to give Manning a chance to beat him and figured he'd put the game into the hands of his strong suit - his offense - and rely on them to get the 1st down.

The call was brilliant. I wish football coaches did this more often. If it weren't for Faulk bobbling the pass, it was a 1st down, game over and we'd all be talking about Belichick's ballsy brilliance. Strategically, it was a sound decision. Punting at that point gives you a minor advantage. Don't we know that with 2 minutes remaining and one score down, time isn't really a factor? Any team with a half decent quarterback can drive the field in 2 minutes against a prevent defense and four downs. And especially Peyton Manning. Everyone knows he can do this. The hard element of the 2 minute drill is getting the ball into the end zone. And so it didn't matter that the Pats gave it to Manning in good field position.

The factor Belichick didn't take into account was momentum. The Pats offense had no momentum when they went for it on 4th and 2. They were just stopped on an excellent play by the rookie cornerback on 3rd and 2. They got up to the line and looked desperate. If you're ahead, you shouldn't play desperate. You don't go for it on 4th and 2 when you feel desperate. If Belichick would take his logic a step further, he would have thrown on first down, and tried to keep the clock running rather than do the old run 1 yard into the line move that all NFL football coaches do.

Anyhow, the whole thing made for a great game. I don't think the Colts or the Saints are going to win the Superbowl, though. Both teams are too dependent on their quarterbacks being perfectly in-sync. I suppose they can keep up the pace - both teams have thus far - but it strikes me as a too-brittle situation. The Colts offense relies on perfect timing and spacing, etc. A smart defensive coordinator will figure out how to disrupt it or Peyton will be off eventually and the rest will fall like a stack of cards. The Saints have tons of weapons, but Brees holds it all together. He's had some shaky games thus far, but they still manage to win. I think any team too reliant on a single player are particularly vulnerable come playoffs.