Undies Bomber Missing the Point

Joe Klein article on the importance of the Jordanian double-agent attack in Afghanistan.

"This was an extremely sophisticated, well-thought-out operation," a former senior intelligence official told me. "It took years to set up. And quite frankly, we didn't think al-Qaeda had that capability." (Several intelligence sources told me they thought the operation was run out of the al-Qaeda high command — Osama bin Laden's headquarters — which would make it a departure from the recent trend of decentralized al-Qaeda operations, like Undiebomber's, which was run out of Yemen.)

"This is a real kick in the teeth," says Kenneth Pollack of the Brookings Institution, a former CIA analyst. "You have to understand that the CIA considers Afghanistan its most successful arena. This is where the CIA believes it has won two wars, in 1989 and 2001. So this has to challenge a lot of assumptions." As a result, there will be two immediate and contradictory reactions to the attack. The more overt will be a flash of spook machismo. A published comment from a CIA official included this threat: "Last week's attack will be avenged. Some very bad people will eventually have a very bad day."

First off, it is not the first time Al Queda Central has pulled off an operation like this. One of their more impressive strategic moves was the assassination of Ahmad Shah Massoud, the leader of the Northern Alliance several days prior to 9/11. They masqueraded a journalist into his lair and blew him up, knowing he was going to be the go-to man for the US to unseat the Taliban and Al Queda. Make no mistake, this Al Queda leadership is clever, patient, and highly capable. To pull off something like this, should not be a surprise.

Clearly, this is a tragedy. But I also think there is a silver lining. We thought we were getting close to AQ central, but almost more importantly, they thought we were getting close to Al Queda central. They don't send a major asset in to blow himself up and all his handlers if they aren't scared. The drones are working. I don't know how far this sets up back. But to me, this is like Texas's touchdowns last night...a wake up call...for the US to keep pounding AQ Central. They will collapse. This is a war of attrition and so long as we define it correctly and fight it courageously, we cannot lose.