Saturday, October 20, 2007

Cleveland-Boston and Strategic Baseball Thoughts

I swear I had the following thought before Boston got the series to 3-2. I've been following the series from a distance...I follow all baseball other than the Oakland A's from a distance...but given the Clev-Bost match up, I had a starting pitching thought...

With the series 3-1 and Beckett starting game 5, does Cleveland consider not throwing Sabathia in game 5 and setting up Sabathia and Carmona to pitch game 6 and 7?

Follow my logic...with the way Beckett is pitching, he seems almost unbeatable. Boston has a clear advantage when he starts - even against Sabathia. So why not concede the game and save your studs for a better match up?

I'll admit the seed of this thought started way back in 2000 or so when the A's played the Yankees in a divisional playoff. The Yanks went up 2-0 against Kevin Appier and Gil Heredia. Remember those guys? Then, we had two young pitchers start games 3 and 4. Tim Hudson and Barry Zito. They both went lights out and suddenly the A's were tied 2-2. We ended up losing game 5, but it was the start of this new A's pitching era. The next year Hudson was runner up for Cy Young and he and Zito won the first two games against the Yankees in the playoffs. We of course went on to lose 3-2 again, but WTF. We're talking mini-market A's versus the Yankees and we're taking them to the limit two years in a row. The Yanks were so scared of the A's, they bought Giambi just to keep us down.

But anyhow, it was an interesting set up because although on paper the A's were completely outmatched by the Yankees, in a given game, with Hudson vs. Yankee #3 starter and Zito vs. Yankee #4 starter, the A's actually had a little advantage.

So take that logic to Cleveland-Boston, and I say just concede the two games Beckett pitches (strategically) and test your luck with Sabathia and Carmona against Schilling and Dice K and Wakefield. Shit, I'd pick Cleveland in those match ups any day.

I guess this is a tad unsporty in that it is custom to throw your #1 as often as possible and always go for the win....but hell, how is it any different than deciding when to put in a pinch hitter or sac bunt...you're sacrificing outs for runs or to advance runners. In this case, you're stacking odds in your favor against superior starting pitching.

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