Turnaround?

I don't know if this is really happening or not, it feels very hard to tell.

I always overestimated the influence of Al Queda on the insurgency. Perhaps it was due to the media coverage devoted to Zarqawi. But it also had to something to do with imagining myselves in their shoes - for instance - would a Baathist really want to fight to the death against the occupation? Why? They have an option for living in a divided Federal Iraq or trying to continue to fight to restore the Baath Party. It seems irrational to try to restore the Baath Party because of the very small likihood that it could happen and no evidence suggesting progress towards that goal.

I can understand Sunnis going over to the insurgency because they fear a Shiia dominated Iraq comprised of death squads, etc. But the death squads were a reaction to the insurgency. So again, the whole Sunni insurgency trying to restore Saddam or the Baath always seemed like a rather stupid overall strategy and one without much hope for success.

On the other hand, Al Queda has potential to achieve what it wants in Iraq...actually what it wanted in Afghanistan...and that is an American occupation that will slowly and surely cost a lot of American lives and resources, eventually leading to the complete withdrawal of the US from the region. After which, they plan to take over Muslim countries one by one.

It is for that reason, I always thought Al Queda was the heart of the insurgency. However, over time, it seemed like most of the insurgents were Sunni Iraqis and less foreign fighters. I never quite understood this. I also don't understand why Iran is supposedly supporting the Insurgency. Are we calling the Shiia death squads part of the insurgency? It's all a bit confusing.

But anyhow, the development of the situation described in this article makes logical sense to me - from all sides. If it is true, I think it bodes well for us. The whole idea behind Iraq and the post-9/11 strategies is to that we need to turn the Muslim world against Al Queda, rather than against us and Israel.

If the options in Iraq are between Al Queda inspired insurgents and a Federalized Iraq with the backing on US troops, guess who most people will be with. It is then, we'll be able to turn the tide...I think.