Hezbollah's Victory...Or Not

While it has been widely regarded as a big blow to Israel in the Western press, the Hezbollah-Israel war isn't necessarily being regarded as a victory for Arabs, according to this article in the Wall Street Journal.

In fact, it appears to have turned some Shiites against Hezbollah, particularly those who would prefer the Lebanese Prime Minister's approach of molding Lebanon into a peaceful model for the region, as opposed to Iran's design to make it into a model of defiance against Israel.

This potential aftermath shares similarities to Israel's fight against the PLO in Jordan 1968-1970. Jordan was home to the PLO leadership who used Jordan as a staging ground for attacks into Israel. Israel attacked the PLO in Jordan and it had the effect of turning the Jordanians against the PLO. The Jordanians and went after them, ultimately driving the organization out of Jordan and temporarily to Tunis. (Part of King Hussein's calculation stemmed from the PLO also having an interest in overthrowing his kingdom and establishing a Palestinian state). From there, Jordan, became the first country to start to work with Israel, even during the Suez war of 1973 against Egypt. By the late 1970s, Jordan, along with Egypt, became the first Arab countries to recognize Israel and neither have attacked Israel since.

Could this be the future for Lebanon? I hope so.