Tuesday, October 25, 2011

America Looking Sharp

The long term outlook still looks good for America.

Since it was inevitable we were going to have this housing crisis at some point (prices relative to income were too wonky) and also inevitable that the Middle East would someday have to revolt against the various autocrats, the major problems in the world are at least being acknowledged and dealt with. Once we get over these twin humps, I imagine the world will be looking pretty good again. We need to fix higher education prices - maybe we can do it without a crisis - knowing what we know about housing, but I doubt it. Too many entrenched interests make it impossible to fix problems with their being some cataclysmic event. And I'm not convinced healthcare is quite as big a crisis as we make out. Problems in the system might fix themselves with more focus and pressure put on the industry and if America undergoes a period of strong economic growth, healthcare costs will shrink relative to income.

All that said, I'd guess we'll come out the great recession in the next 2-5 years (note: that is a long time for people without jobs) and then America's global position will likely be as strong as it was in the mid 90s. We'll be sharper about bubbles and entitlements and other costs and the global freedom index will likely be considerably higher. It should be good.

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