Friday, April 29, 2011

Beating the Lakers

The key to beating the Lakers, methinks, is three things:

1) Dominate the point guard position with a fast PG who can dribble-penetrate
2) 2-guard who can match up with Kobe and play him straight up for at least 3-4 games in a long series. Challenge him on both offense and defense. Or better yet, outplay him, but that's unlikely.
3) At least two big men who can battle with their size in the paint and not let them dominate offensive rebounding.

The model for this is the Celtics of a couple years ago. Rondo could break down Fisher easily. Pierce and/or Allen could go head-to-head with Kobe and in that particular series, Pierce outplayed him. And Perkins/Garnett could muscle with Gasol and Bynum down low. So they won in 6.

The teams that have given the Lakers trouble (but not beaten them) the last couple years have 2 of the 3 elements. The Rockets took them to 7 games without McGrady or Yao, but because they had Aaron Brooks giving them fits and Artest/Battier able to guard Kobe and play him at least straight up for 3 games, they caused trouble. Ultimately, they were short a big man, and gave up too much down low. Scola was not enough.

Same with the Hornets. Paul decimated them. And strangely, Ariza matches up well with Kobe in terms of athleticism and size. But again, they didn't have the size down low.

OKC has Westbrook. I wonder if their two bigs can muscle with Bynum and Gasol. It remains to be seen. Durant doesn't exactly match up with Kobe - but he can sort of cancel him out by outscoring him - which I imagine he will do. Last year, OKC didn't have the inside presence.

Now...Dallas...it strikes me Dallas has the size with Chandler and Dirk, even though Dirk doesn't go low much. He brings other things to the table. But they seem to be missing the fast point guard and someone to match up with Kobe. Terry? I don't know. Barea off the bench? I don't know. Kidd vs. Fisher seems like a wash to me. Both old point guards with strength and no speed. But the key to beating the Lakers is not to just match up well on the point, I think it's the area that needs to be attacked. Maybe Barea will give them problems...but I don't know. He is awfully short and I can't tell if the guy is actually any good or just a good inspiration/energy guy. Same thing with Terry for that matter...he strikes me as good for some points off the bench...but not a playoff winner type of guy. Dallas can throw some bodies at Kobe - Marion, Butler (challenge him on offense) - the Celtics did this well. Could be a good series, but I imagine the Lakers win in 5 or 6 if they play like they did in the last two games against Charlotte. The real test will be OKC and it will come down to the inside game because I think OKC will win the perimeter game against the Lakers.

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