Tuesday, May 01, 2007

We Really Ought to Be Able to Exploit This

Sunni Tribes increased fighting against Al Queda in Iraq. Al-Masri reported dead.

If we were really smart, we'd parlay this into a political solution. Join forces with the Sunni insurgents to root out and kill Al Queda in exchange for fair representation in the Coalition government, protection from Shiia militias, and a gradual US troop pullout. Everyone wins.

I hope the Sunni tribes have finally come to accept that there is no way, under any circumstance, that they can return to minority power in Iraq. Even if the US left, the Shiia and Kurds are too strong to allow it.

We need to have high level discussions with the US, the Shiia, and the Sunni Tribes and explain the goals of each:

1. The US wants to leave, but we won't leave Iraq in chaos or in Civil War. We cannot and will not leave if the perception is that we ran away.

2. The Sunni need to convince their hardcore members that it is impossible to return to the status quo under Saddam. Simply impossible. But if they take advantage of the Coalition government, everyone in the long term will benefit. We're talking generations. The Sunnis want to ensure they will be protected from slaughter if they put down their arms.

3. The Shiia need to be willing to forgive. They must be happy with having more power than they have had in generations and forswear reprisals to avoid civil war.

Where is a national political leader that has the ability to sell this idea to the people?

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