Wednesday, October 04, 2006

The Playoffs

It's a whole different ballgame than the regular season. Regular season success, I think, depends mostly upon deep starting pitching and good defense.

To be able to contend for every game because of strong starting pitching is the best assurance for getting into the playoffs. It is also one of the cheaper was to get into the playoffs because pitching is such an elusive art. Pitchers tend to get hurt so often, it's tough to buy a great rotation. Plus, pitchers benefit from working in certain parks and with certain team dynamics.

But the postseason is a different story. Mostly, I think it is about streakiness. Baseball is a game of streaks and temperature. When a player hits .325 for the year, it usually means he's been hitting .250 for a good chuck of the year and .400 for a good chunk of the year. You've got to hope your hitters are hitting .400 during the playoffs...because if they aren't, at least one of the other teams is.

Streaky hitting isn't the only thing that's huge in the playoffs, however. The bullpen is huge. Bullpens that can close down games after the 7th inning are really tough to beat. If you've got a stellar bullpen, it effectively gives you 9 innings to win and the opponent 7 innings.

The final element that can determine post-season victory is a single, badass starter. In the regular season, the most a starter can do for you is win about 20-25 games max. You need about 95 wins to get into the post-season, so you're looking at 1 in 4 or so.

But in the post-season, in a seven game series, one starter can start 3 games. Games 1, 4, and 7. If you can have a huge advantage in 3 games when you get a Josh Beckett on fire or Oral Hershisher, they can win 3 of 4 games and give you a major advantage.

Anyhow, go A's.

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