Friday, October 20, 2006

Consensus

A consensus seems to be building, among generals and commanders on the ground that the effort to secure Baghdad has failed. That sucks.

Has the neo-conservative movement failed? Is it over? It shouldn't be cause for celebration.

Well, I always thought of Iraq like a poker hand...after the flop we had a nut flush and a straight draw, with a bunch of other players in the hand. Maybe a 40-60 bet, but the payoff for victory would have been huge, so the bet was worth it. I'd rather play like that than folding away an opportunities and getting slowly worn down by the blinds.

Anyhow, the turn clearly didn't help us, and here we are, trying to decide whether to stay in the hand or not before the river and facing a huge bet. Are we pot committed? Or do we save our chips for another hand?

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