Delusions of Grandeur

I am reminded by a Grantland column today of San Diego firing Marty Schottenheimer after a 14-2 season to go with Norv Turner.  The idea was Schottenheimer couldn't win the big one.  How has Norv Turner done in that department as a replacement?

In high pressure, competitive environments, people make stupid decisions by seeing all upside to the unknown and refusing to imagine the unexpected from the known.  Yes, I am talking about Alex Smith and Colin Kaepernick, but I am talking about other things as well.

The Niners lost on Sunday because of Kaepernick.  Anyone who denies this claim is lying to themselves.  This doesn't necessarily mean it was a mistake to play Kapernick, but let's not lie to ourselves.  We must be saying, we will take these losses because the future upside is better.  Perhaps it is.  But a lot of people have lost a lot of money and wasted good parts of their lives chasing unknown upsides.  You hear about the good stories - the stories where Brady replaced Bledsoe is a ballsy move.  Or the stories like Robert Roderiguez selling his blood to make his first movie or Kevin Smith doing it on credit cards.  We like stories when people risk it all and come out ahead.  But I'd be willing to bet, of the people who risk it all, well over 90% lose it all and we hear stories about the others.

I used to be a win the Super Bowl or nothing guy.  Then I watched the Niners from 2002-2010.  I came to appreciate the playoffs and chance to play for something.  And with the NFL structured the way it is structured now, with parity, it's just luck and timing if you put yourself in the top 8.  The Niners are in the top 8 with Smith.  Kaep is the future - maybe - or maybe he isn't.  Smith was the future once, too.