Saturday, August 27, 2011

Consider

For all those who openly criticize the stimulus for being "too small," consider the following:

Deleveraging recessions last a long time, as shown by Rogoff and Reinhart. The need for continuing deleveraging implies that even a stimulus twice the size of ARRA won’t turn the tide.

In those cases a well-designed stimulus program should not be so “timely.” For a given presented expected value sum spent on stimulus, it is better to spread it out across the years. It is better to help a smaller set of workers for five years (or however many years it takes for most of the deleveraging to end), after which they are reemployable , than to temporarily boost a larger number of workers for two years, and then leave them back in the dust because deleveraging is still going on.


I wish someone had pointed this out in 2008. I haven't heard a peep about it until now. And frankly, now is too late.

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