Wednesday, July 09, 2008

Harden Trade

It pains me to see the A's let Harden go, since on any given night when he's healthy, he's as a good a pitcher as anyone in the league (and he's young!).

But this is how the A's compete...even though they are only 6 games out this year, they know come down the stretch it's going to be super tough to compete against the absolutely stacked Angels. Plus, the A's keep adding guys to the IR. They don't see themselves making it to the playoffs this year and are trying to cash in their most uncertain prize - Harden - to maximize the benefit.

All around, it looks like a wise trade. Both teams will win out in most scenarios. Certainly, it gives the Cubs the bonafides to win the whole thing. If Harden starts 10 games and pitches in the playoffs for the Cubs - they will definitely get their money's worth - cause the guy is damn good. For the A's - they get a young starter they can develop (and afford) and 3 prospects.

The way the A's lose out - if Harden stays healthy for the next year and half. He's never done this yet in his career, so I imagine there is about a 25% likelihood this will happen. There's pretty much no way the guys they got can match the value of 1.5 healthy Harden years. *caveat is that the A's don't necessarily lose if any of the prospects from the trade turn into a star.

The way the Cubs lose out - simple. Harden gets injured this year and can't pitch. Then the A's robbed them.

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