Tuesday, December 23, 2003

In the past couple days we've seen tons of reports indicating increased terror threats. Here's just one from CNN.

After 9/11 my biggest fear was that success would beget success. That is, because of the "success" of Al Queda on 9/11, they would have an easier time getting money, troops, etc. to rally to their cause. While Al Qudea has had a few successful attacks in Bali and Saudi Arabia since 9/11, nothing large, indicating "progress" has occurred. Al Queda operates like an international corporation, with autonomous sections operating towards a single goal. In the corporation, this goal is profit. In Al Queda, the goal is terror.

For a business to succeed, it needs to grow. If we are to win against Al Queda, it will not be a spectacular victory, but a slow, drawn out, fadeaway. If we keep chasing them around, frustrating their attempts to attack, we will grow emboldened and they will grow tired. Recruits and financiers will see the increased risk and lower chance of success and not have a change of heart, but rather lose their energy and zeal. They won't have anything to rally around.

Al Queda knows this. Every day they cannot mount attacks is in our favor. This is in contrast to the world before 9/11. Before 9/11, America was lazy in our fight against terror. Each day we did not counter attack Al Queda, they grew emboldened. They were patient and it worked well for them. Time was on their side. No more. Time is now on our side. They witness our success in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Libya. They know we have rounded up 2/3 of their leaders.

Needless to say, all this can change with another big attack. Let's hope we can avoid and or stop it, and then do the even tougher work to help build a world where terror because a less and less a practical option.

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