VT
Total world stock now actually up for the year. Question. 2 weeks ago every Trump critic on the planet was using the market drop as evidence of his poor governance. Does the opposite hold? Or is the narrative the market stopped Trump's foolishness? Seems to me he got his tariffs on Chinese goods, got his DOGE, got DEI on the run -- whether the tariffs will be effective remains to be seen...
Recession In A Month Or So People
I see these folks on twitter saying we're definitely going into recession soon because of tariffs. Like for sure. And it's gonna hurt. But the thing is - if you knew this, the last thing you would do is go on twitter and tell everyone. You'd short the market and shut up.
MS-13
People keep calling the MS-13 tats photoshopped but clearly the letters/numbers are added to interpret the gang code - like subtitles in a foreign film.
I get the marijuana leaf = M, smile = S but why would the cross and skull equal 13? I guess the shapes are suggestive? Can the media actually do some reporting on this? Can someone interview a gang expert at least? The discussions around the entire thing are absurd.
Further, I could believe the tats were meant as MS-13 - but that doesn't make the guy a member for sure. Could be a poser.
SJP
Like all Islamists, they can win tactical victories - several in a row, even but it's all wrapped up in a losing strategy. They get weaker and poorer and more and more reliant on moonshots while their opponents keep getting richer and smarter and more populous.
Impressive
Pam Bondi says DEA fentanyl bust saved 119 million American lives. 1/3 of the entire country!
Maybe they meant 119 people. Not sure.
Rockets - Warriors
Fascinating game last night. After the fast Warriors start, I thought the Rockets had them figured out. Thompson on Curry. Play through Sengun instead of Green. Get Smith and Eason on the floor for outside shooting. Attack Draymond and get him in foul trouble. Make the "others" beat you. There were sequences in the game when Rockets defense was absolutely stifling.
But...Sengun seems to get a bit psyched out by Draymond. Not sure why. He's taller and quicker and I think the Rockets are smart to attack Green defensively to both get him in foul trouble and wear him down. Warriors have no interior D without Draymond. And Pods, Butler, and Hield showed up. Game could've gone either way. Brooks foul on Jimmy was beyond dumb. Also, soft call if you ask me. Crazy as well Butler didn't get a flagrant or tech on his takedown of Brooks. Worrisome for Rockets - they cannot expect another game like that from VanVleet...
Why Dems Make Thing Suck
Obama efforts to make cars more efficient lead to larger and larger cars.
Perversely, Democrats planning, "intelligence," and sense of morality works against them. They think they understand complex systems, but they only understand 1st order effects. Republicans have all sorts of poor motivation for their policies - like selfishness and subtle racism, but they might be perversely better than the Dems attempts to social engineer outcomes.
Adam Schiff
The highest I've ever thought on him in this clip.
I don't see how any of these California politicians can hold their heads high when they look upon their own state.
Copying Works Both Ways
China copies our good stuff, but we can copy their good stuff too... a 20K bare bones electric pick up.
Rubio
I don't find anything he's been saying publicly to be wrong. Prefer him to Vance to take the helm from Trump.
I see little hope for any Democrat so long as Trump continues to moderate on tariffs and some of the more extreme deportation stuff.
PS -
A few weeks ago, every commentator was using the global stock market fall as evidence for Trump's failure (never mind that they would never use such a measure to compliment his prior Presidency). Now VT is down 1.5% YTD. Hmmm.
Who Holds The Cards?
I fail to see why any number of the 5 billion non-Chinese people in the world can't assemble iPhones and manufacture other products that are done in China on the cheap.
MAGA is Obsessed with Trans?
She's got it all backwards. Maga uses trans issues because it's a clear political winner for them. They will keep repeating and repeating the issue so long as the Democrats are on the wrong side of it. And they are. The gender transition stuff is just absolute madness. As are boys in women's sports. Every single normal person actually has to deal with this nonsense these days. And of course it is not the biggest issue in the world! But it's horrible for the Democrats. Because it shows they have no sense of reality. When you get caught in a lie, you lose trust not on one issue, but ALL issues. This is the hugest Democrat "own goal" of my lifetime. Even the question of how Israel treats the Palestinians has a hair more connection to reality than the trans issue. And no, Republicans didn't start the nonsense. The Democrats did, by prioritizing the most radical elements of the LGBT+ agenda. The old rule was leave everyone alone and we're cool. When it changed to make everyone accept what is patently false - that's when the Democrats lost the normies. It's political suicide.
None of the Anti-Israel Positions Ever Make Sense To Me
The critics who call the war genocide also called the occupation from before the war genocide. And before the occupation, they called 1948 the Nabka and refuse to acknowledge Israel has any right to exist. It keeps going back to this circular logic that ends with supporting Hamas or PLO or basically any organization that uses violence against Israel. What makes no sense is that no one would support say, the 2 million displaced Chinese who left China for Taiwan attacking mainland China. Or for that matter, the native Taiwanese who saw 2 million Chinese migrants enter their country and then start suiciding bombing them.
The point is, the anti-Israel folks never come up with a reasonable compromise. Never put anything but violence on the table. Never exert pressure on their own side to compromise. And thus ensure perpetual war hoping that someone else will shame Israel into not acting in their own interest. What country or state has ever voluntarily ceased to exist? It ain't gonna happen.
NY Times on Fire
First, Douthat's column on the age of extinction is a must read. I remain a hair more optimistic - my general feel is that things can change quickly for both worse and better. So this notion that we all voluntarily stop procreating and life ends can easily be turned around by simply turning off video games and porn, I think. But he's really onto something about how physical life has become so much more difficult whereas online life so much more easy. To give a simple example - little league vs video games. The fortnite video game costs something like $50 and could entertain (if I let it) my kids for 2 hours each a day. They will be safe and happy in the short run. To compare, baseball practice can similarly entertain them for 2 hours, but it takes driving 15 minutes each way, it takes me doing coaching training and filling out tons of paperwork, costs hundreds of dollars each for league fees, hundreds each more for bats, helmets, gloves...it takes tremendous coordination and effort by parents, coaches, league volunteers, parks and rec for field access, etc. It is at least 15% more difficult than when I was a kid. And that's for a well-organized system with deep roots. I can make a similar point about skiing.
My point - recreation in the US is by some measure worse than when I was a kid whereas the video games are clearly like 5x better than when I was a kid. It's only one example, but shows why we are being pushed more into the virtual and must remain intentional to get out.
Next, this ADHD article feels urgent and important. Two things to note - the "disease" is diagnosed by behaviors and cannot be identified by any biomarker. And the disease is treated with amphetamines for kids with notable side effects. It remains unclear in a lot of cases whether the ADHD diagnosis can be separated from other issues - example being anxiety disorder. Kids may display ADHD "symptoms" and be diagnosed with ADHD when in fact they have anxiety. Well worth a read for the many folks dealing with doctors and teachers telling you your kid has ADHD.
Remarkable
0% of Americans think the tariffs will personally benefit them.
Who says we're economically illiterate?
A Solution to the Kilmar Garcia Case
We should bring him back to the US where he will likely commit a crime and both Dems and Republicans get to look like heroes. Dems for preserving the rule of law and the Republicans for correctly sussing out he was a criminal. As they say, solve for the equilibrium.
Not Helping
Hate to say it, but big long conversations with groups of women on live TV don't further the cause women's lib movement. Yes, you get one of four who know what they are talking about but those are the one's who get silenced by the others and drowned out.
And here Candace Owen's calls the NASA program fake and gay. It is funny, but not in the way she thinks it is.
UPDATE: Kanye now thinking Candace Owens might be a little crazy.
Sad But Perhaps True
Yglesias and Hanania think MAGA men want women to be poorer so they can have a better shot with the ladies. Gender dynamics can explain quite a lot in society, so I think they are onto something. The men, however, are dumb. If you are a guy with the following:
-A full time job (any, even a bad one)
-Some realistic ambition
-And remotely in-shape/attractive, ie not obese, a slob, or clearly unhealthy
-No disqualifying personality traits (psycho vibes)
Or perhaps just 3.5 of the 4, you will attract a decent woman.
All these incel and Maga types are the wokie's evil twin - they blame complex systemic when a simpler solution to their ailments would simply be: get a job, eat healthier, and/or jog.
Moral Panic
The first moral panic I personally fell for - the Iraq War. I supported it as a 60-40 proposition that it would usher in a change in the Middle East. In that, I was wrong. I also figured getting rid of the most evil man/family in the world might be good unto itself. Still...the emotional sway of the arguments for the war was what won me over at the time. Now I've seen the playbook 10-15x since then. The same pattern being used A LOT around a lot of different issues. The environment? Remember that? What ever happened with climate change ruining earth? Is it still happening? You wouldn't know it by what folks talk about. Guns? School shootings? COVID and vaccine mandates, etc? China, Ukraine, Russia. Stolen elections. DEI. George Floyd. Each one of these issues is built into moral panic. Then it was Doge, which everyone seems to have forgotten from a measly two weeks ago. Then tariffs. Now immigration -- the Maryland man deported. Don't get me wrong. I think it's terrible. But the moral panic around issue is by design and how many times can we be told the sky is falling...
For The Record...
...I'm glad Harvard is standing up for themselves but they and other colleges put themselves in this situation.
...I don't support deporting our citizens even if they're criminals. Question, though: why doesn't the Left consider this a fringe, small issue that doesn't impact many people like they do with transgender stuff? Curious minds want to know...
...Yes there probably is a smarter way to do the tariffs, but if that were the case, why don't we have it?
...And yes, there is probably a smarter way to do DOGE, but again if that were the case, why don't we have it?
...I'm starting to wonder if Russia and China might have screwed themselves over... Could Trump and the West switch course and just decide to buttress Ukraine for the long haul and continue to bleed Russia? Could we transfer all the most useful lessons and tech from Ukraine to Taiwan in the meantime? Let the tariffs hurt an already fragile Chinese economy. People think Xi is tough, but he folded on zero COVID when the Chinese people started watching the world cup. His country doesn't want to be a pariah. Also...China doesn't need to invade Taiwan. This is a paranoid, absurd idea and if the Chinese are as smart as everyone thinks they are, they should know this. I hope the CIA is in touch with all the generals Xi has fired over the past several years and coaching them how to organize a revolution from within.
Logging
Film : The Wild Pear Tree
Watched it like I was reading a novel. Slowly, over the course of several nights. Loved, loved, loved it.
Story: Brokeback Mountain
I'll admit I got a little teary. Also, the story isn't about LGBTQ blah blah blah. It's about what time does to memory, about the impossibility of recapturing the past, relationships that matter and only realizing it too late. It's about love and life.
And What of The Palestinian Strategy?
Taleb likes to critique the Israeli strategy of needing to kill more and more people to survive. But what of the Arab strategy? To keep being killed is surely a worse strategy, especially for a guy who places such a high premium on basics like "survival."
Bonkers
A hilarious exchange where BBC news hosts insist this politician needs to watch Adolescence. My God.
And she calls it a documentary. Unclear. Does the women think the story is real? Or based on reality and not understand it's a fictional drama?
And So We Get Tariffs
This is one of those stories that could only happen in California:1. Mayor of Los Angeles issues an executive directive making it fast & easy to build 100% affordable housing.2. She doesn’t include any new public money in the order, so it’s supposed to just be a fake messaging thing.3. But there normal process to build housing in CA is so terrible, new policies that make it easy to build can be profitable (even for affordable housing).4. So private developers start building a ton of new housing using this streamlined process.5. Faced with a surprising pro-housing supply policy success, the mayor immediately started amending the directive to be more burdensome and revert to the status quo.
We can literally do nothing anymore. Probably best to just start learning Chinese.
Agree
When he doesn't talk about Palestine, his stuff makes sense:
If the US wants to reduce its external deficit there is only one way: fiscal discipline, end to budget deficits, price and salary devaluation, structural reforms in education and innovation, more competition in product markets
One could include housing into this morass as well.
True
People who support Trump imposing the tariffs will also Trump support lifting the tariffs.
Although it should be also pointed out, when the stock market went up during Trump 1, people criticized him for making the rich richer and now that it's going down, they are also criticizing him for making everyone poorer.
Stock Futures Plunging
Once again, Warren Buffet the only one publicly going to cash last year - the man remains undefeated.
The shocker with this one - entirely triggered by non-emergency public policy choice by an American president. Normally, these things happen for financial or economic reasons, but this one purely induced by policy. Live and learn.
My Read on Trump and the Tariffs
My sense of Trump is that he can read the room and learn from mistakes. My guess is that he'll adjust the tariffs to make more sense over time. Perhaps this is being generous, but I see him as pragmatic and opportunistic, not fanatical. I know others see him different. I guess time will tell. But as Tyler Cowen always says: "are you short the market?"
Trade War
So now Americans can't buy the newest Nintendo Switch. Are we so sure we can win this trade war?
The Tariffs
Seem like a bad idea being handled in the way they are. Bluntly. The best argument seem to be: we've already lost our ability to be a global superpower and keep free trade secure around the world. So we might as well retreat to our hemisphere and re-shore industry here. Taiwan will belong to China and Ukraine to Russia. And let's cross our fingers and hope things work out.
The Algorithms No Longer Work
Because people got wise...
I took my kids and their cousins to the computer history museum over Christmas where they had various AI robots and the kids immediately began bullying the AI. This was their natural reaction. When I see a robot delivering food, my initial reaction is to kick it over. You think something is wrong with me? I think something is wrong with you. Who wants these robots doing anything, much less calling the shots. Only the autistic. I'm not going to apologize for being a humanist...
Now we see even the cleverist systems breaking down. I noticed this on my own film - 29% rotten tomatoes critics, 97% rotten tomatoes audience, 5.2 rating on imdb, 2.4 rating on letterboxd. So the film ranges from shitty, to mediocre, to great on all the different algorithms. And Snow White. 1.9 on imdb, 40% critics on rotten tomatoes, 70% audience on rotten tomatoes, 2.0 on letterboxd. None of the numbers make any sort of sense. They might as well be monkey shit spraying all over the place. It's obvious with Snow White, the 1.9 on imdb are being rigged by "haters" but isn't the audience on rotten tomatoes "reacting" to the "haters". At some point we're going to get algorithms that algorithm the algorithms and every film ever made will be a perfect 5/10.
Re: Tariffs
I don't think America can sustain ourselves by simply being a consumer market and living on financial products, ie stock growth.
We need industries. We need to build. The past 25 years we've been carving up every industry but tech.
So will the tariffs work? Probably not, but no one else has any other ideas so tariffs is what we're doing.
Start Reading The Chinese Perspective
Because we'll be soon living under it whether we want to or not.
The added benefit is this guy is more rational than 80% of American commentary on the Ukraine war.
Logging
TV: 21 Jump Street 2 part pilot
In it, Johnny Depp didn't love high school, joins the drama club, solves a drug case, and a high school girl develops a crush on him... More elements of the 2-part pilot show up in the film than I would've guessed. But where the film places emphasis is significantly different. The film is a 2-hander and the tone satirical and humorous. The show has humor, some of which is unintentional and of the era. I remember shows like Miami Vice and MacGyver each had similar tonal elements - a strange mix of seriousness, humor (some intentional and some not), and a surprisingly big nod to social messaging (for those who object to wokeness...might want to consider whether it's providing a message or the content one objects to).
In the end, the message here is listen to your parents and cops.
TV: Adolescence - end "season" which is just 4 episodes...
Another 99% on rotten tomatoes viewing experience. The pitch on this should be - an episode of Law and Order SVU strung out over 4 episodes shot in long, continuous takes. As one might expect this yields both positives and negatives. I find it impossible to believe audiences are impressed by "oners" anymore, but who knows...on occasion this show finds memorable small moments with characters by its formal choice - I'm thinking of the father and the psychologist, in particular. So at times you can appreciate this effort. But in the end, the "mystery" lacks even the psychological truth of a Law and Order SVU. The depiction of the family and community in relationship to the crime is so implausible as to defy reality. If one is offended by how thin the 21 Jump Street pilot depicts of black criminality, one should be equally (if not more) offended by the depth in which Adolescence "explains" white working class criminality - by essentially not explaining it - and suggesting a 13 year old from a decent family would simply knife to death a fellow schoolgirl simply because he was an incel without any prior red light warning signals. Utterly absurd.
Why Trump Is President
Listen and learn how Democrats couldn't even implement their own policy to expand broadband access.
7 More Bil
If you wonder why we have/need Doge, look no further than CA high speed rail. An absolute heist from the taxpayer to do-nothing bureaucrats and their construction firm patrons. What a joke.
Logging
Film: Den of Thieves 2: Pantera
I enjoy Gerard Butler in this role traipsing around Europe hanging with Serbian jewel heisters. The heist parts are well filmed, but I'm afraid Ice Cube's son weighs down the production. I remembered quite liking the original, so I re-watched the trailer and was like - oh yeah, there were a ton more memorable, chaotic characters in that one. I wonder if this is a sustainable filmmaking model where a filmmaker just basically says: I'm making a batshit crazy Heat rip off and then I'm making a sequel that's a batshit crazy version of Ronin. Maybe it is.
Democrats
Opt to die on this hill of trans shit while the costs mount - losing abortion rights, tax breaks for billionaires, continuation of a dysfunctional medical system, out of control housing costs, neutered educational systems, and betrayal of allies round the globe. But you can be accepted at lame social events with other Democrats. Good job folks.
They are electing JD Vance for 8 years with this shit.
Schools
Remember when public schools argued the most fervently for keeping closed during COVID? In hindsight, isn't this totally upside down? You would think schools would've been their own biggest advocates? Shouldn't the schools have been arguing for their central importance to children, families, and the society at large? Instead, they tacitly argued they were the LEAST important institutions in the country.
Their Strategy is Death
"I'm not sure what Hamas's strategy is?"
Come on people, we regard these folks as rational actors at our peril. They yearn for death and would like to take Israelis with them. It's not complex.
Democrats
I agree if Democrats embraced policies that would prevent medical bankruptcies, providing affordable housing, and raising the minimum wage they could (and should) win. (I don't agree with the minimum wage thing because I actually studied economics, but I can see how it could be politically popular). Problem is, this is fantasy land. Because Democrats controlled congress and the Presidency for four years and did none of the above. And...Democrats controlled California for the past 25 years and did none of the above. So the truth is, either a) Democrats don't actually care about those things or b) Democrats don't know how to deliver government policy. Or both.
So when the Dems who had political power during these times - I'm looking at you AOC, Gavin Newsom, etc - now want us to believe they are shifting and refocusing priorities - sorry, no one buys it. You had your chance. You chose hypocritical COVID lockdowns, high speed rail boondogles, the woke and trans agenda, the green new deal, and forgiving student loans. Everyone was here for it and saw it.
Okay...
Strange framing. Never did it occur to him from 2007 to 2023 that Hamas could've been "pressured" to not commit mass murder?
Other strange phenomenon with Taleb and Macaes - their obsession with "debunking" the "propaganda" of Hamas committing mass rapes on October 7th. I'm not a forensic expert on the subject but it would seems to me similar to focusing on how the Nazi guards actually weren't always as bad in the concentration camps as depicted in movies or some official accounts. It's like...okay. And...? So? Perhaps some reports of mass rapes were exaggerated in the aftermath of October 7th just like after every earthquake the numbers of dead are misreported. How does that materially change anything that happened on October 7th.
It is just such a strange, strange mindset that doesn't grasp the impossibility of dealing with a group of people who elect Hamas to do their bidding.
Logging
Film: Black Bag
Soderbergh and Koepp doing a stylish spy flick with 97% rotten tomatoes? Seems like a home run. But it wasn't for me. Why? Some indecipherable dialog masks what felt to me like an entirely joyless enterprise. I'm all for melancholy, but this felt like a movie about miserable people for miserable people. A few strong plot twists were impressive. I wasn't bored. But never did my pulse raise, never did I feel much emotionally, and never did I laugh or even chuckle. If I want misanthropy, I prefer something like Fincher's The Killer which takes it all the way...
TV: White Lotus s3e5
I wonder if Jason Isaacs ever questioned Mike White and was like - are you sure you need me to be distracted during dinner and leave to make a phone call again? Could I try something else? In case it wasn't obvious, this is my least favorite season so far although Walt Goggins-and Sam Rockwell surprise visit was enjoyable.
China Offers "Stability"
China out there promoting "stability" as if their foreign and domestic policy is a more desirable model than the US. If you consider active complicity in Russia's aggression, enabling the largest land war in Europe since WW2 and creating the biggest global pandemic in living memory "stability," then...enjoy your stability! Careful what you wish for...
Good Argument
This is a good argument against deporting the Columbia protest leader. The government should be making the case he wasn't exercising speech, but rather was promoting vandalism, etc. But instead they ARE making the case his opinions/politics alone are the reason he's being deported. I still think the government has an argument that he's a guest in the country and shouldn't be here on a secret Muslim Brotherhood mission to tear down Western civilization from the inside (which is he is attempting to do...and if you doubt this, please read any basic philosophical tracts from the Brotherhood, of which Hamas is a branch). But nevertheless, we are a country of laws and amongst those laws is the First Amendment. Point is, we have the tools to handle this fool and are not using the best one.
What I'm Not Gonna Do
Is learn about the nitty gritty details of immigration law to see whether the Trump admin is out of line by deporting a Hamas supporter. From what I can tell the guy seems to be an unemployed grad student with enough spare time to disrupt classes for tuition paying students. Am I worried about the impact to free speech? Let me think about that - how much will we miss one extra robot repeating the same unpopular, anti-western slogans the Muslim Brotherhood's been spreading around the world for the past 50 years?
Not at all.
Will this cool radical leftist and Arab students from studying at American universities? One can only hope.
That said, I'm a huge proponent of free speech. He can speak all he wants from his home country.
Trump
Gets Ukraine to agree to a 30-day ceasefire putting the ball in Putin's court. He got the mineral deal, took Zelensky to the woodshed in public. Does this put some heretofore unknown pressure on Putin from within his own coalition? Will this give cover for elements in the power structure of Russia to gently convince Putin to cut his losses and move on? We can't know. But worth a try, right? Better than the meat grinder.
Interesting Takes
On Trump, Ukraine, China, etc.
America dealing with the fact that our allies are much weaker than before.
Let The Local Communities Decide
Haha. Democrat's now saying "let the local communities decide" regarding men in women's sports. Of course this was always the right answer. The only problem was the Democrats deciding to use Title IX and Civil Rights law to impose men in women's sports. Just conveniently forgetting their own agenda...nevermind the cultural pressure imposed by the activists.
Can We Stop With The "Firsts"
A lot boasting these days about being the "first" whatever whatever to win or become whatever whatever. Here is among the most ridiculous - the first man in England to become naturally pregnant. Of course this is really just a women who took hormones and accomplished what I dunno - all of our mothers and most animals accomplish in the course of their lives.
Logging
Film: Wild Robot
The most searing critique of this film is that it's made for over-moms. You can imagine this type dragging her child to this film and Taylor Swift concerts, giving the children no space to be themselves, viewing her child as a "runt" who can only survive due to the mother's effort. Munchausen by proxy propaganda.
Good Luck With That
Palestinian woman says she will "never surrender." Not really sure exactly what she means but that. Oh wait...yes I do. Her people will be further immiserated for the next 75 years.
The obvious thing for the Palestinians to do is give up the violence and get rich and beat the Israelis demographically. But that would require discipline, patience, and strategic thinking.
Zelenskyy-Trump-Vance Blow Up
I watched the entire interview. Several thoughts:
1) This was not a prep-planned ambush as some in the American media ridiculously suggest. Clearly, it was a formalization of a deal that did indeed blow up at the last minute.
2) Anyone whose ever dealt with a difficult deal in business or law will recognize the emotionality and tone of the discussion. The strange element was that it was all caught on live TV. But don't listen to pearl clutchers.
3) Zelenskyy did indeed "start it" but Vance quickly escalated, rather than de-escalated. I found this dynamic rather odd as Vance had been silent the entire time and it was clearly Trump's show. But Trump then seemed to jump to Vance's defense and get really mad at Zelenskyy.
4) Deep annoyance with Zelenskyy clearly preexisted.
5) I really did not like Vance's escalation, asking a guy fighting for his country and life to come here and "thank" (grovel at the feet) the current admin. Trump and Vance are perfectly willing to fawn over Putin in diplomatic terms. How about giving a guy and a country who are fighting a much larger and more powerful foe a bit of respect for being the front line of freedom.
6) Side note - for those of us few true blue "liberals" who remain, the person in the US we should most worry about is Vance. Trump is a moderate, a deal maker and egomaniac who wants things like peace and economic opportunities to build. Is this such a bad thing? Vance is not cut from the same cloth. This guy is a real deal hardcore social conservative the likes of which we have not seen wielding significant power in the United States. Stop comparing him to other conservatives for a moment and think about this. JD Vance is smart and learning on the job. Consider how Biden sidelined Kamala within the first year of his presidency and sent her to the kids table. She did nothing for four years. Trump is training Vance. He's in the room with Zelenskyy and Putin. This guy is young and in 4 years will inherit Trump's campaign and political apparatus. He stands to be elected President for 8 years. And this guy is hardcore pro-life. He is not joking around on this issue. This guy would abandon Ukraine in a heartbeat. He does not for one second care "what's happening over there." This guy is not what we would call a "man of the world." He believes in "America first" and we will find out what that means. He's a hillbilly, essentially. Is he evil? No. Not at all. But he is also not a liberal. And he's going to run a superpower unless somehow the democrats can get their act together (they won't).
7) Despite the blow up, all the same incentives for a deal exist. And they will continue to exist.
8) I wish Trump or Vance could articulate this better, but the proper historical consideration here is Germany post WW2. We did not insist on "freeing" all of Germany and go to war with the Soviets over it. The West kept hold of what we could - West Germany and drew a line in the sand. I recognize what Zelenskyy is saying about not rewarding invasion, etc., but ideas are not concrete reality. Europe and Ukraine cannot deter or defeat Russia on the battlefield. They can hold the line and so hold the line is what they will do. They cannot expect America to jump into the fight against a nuclear armed power and risk WW3 for 19% of their territory. It's a ludicrous ask.
9) And here's what needs to be said behind the scenes. Of course Putin will break the ceasefire when he can. So make it difficult for him to do and play for time. Crimea was 10 years ago. So keep your country alive for 10 more years. What happens then? Putin will be 82 years old.
Logging
Film: Back In Action
Bad but not as bad as the ratings and rotten tomatoes suggest. This is exactly the type of thing Cameron Diaz does better than anyone in the world. It made me think of Knight and Day, a hugely underrated film. This one doesn't quite live up to that level because Netflix cheaps out on the set pieces and Jamie Foxx is no Tom Cruise. Pulling off this tone is real difficult.
Ukraine
Fascinating dynamics in these Ukraine discussions. More moderate takes here by Edward Luttwak and Tyler Cowen, both seemingly in mild support of Trump's efforts.
And then there's a former UK spy chief intelligently discussing the issue.
Spy chief points on an interesting angle - Putin needs Trump. If he angers Trump and the deal goes away - what's Putin's plan B? Will he have a better chance to make a deal in the future? Does he risk Beijing ever having second thoughts? Their own agenda? What if Europe gets their act together? What if Trump decides to continue to bleed Russia out of annoyance?
On the positive side for Ukraine - giving up land looks bad from the Western perspective - it looks like it rewards Putin. But a reminder of what Putin loses in a ceasefire. Ukraine will exist. The Europeans will have awakened to the need to defend Europe.
Putin is 72 years old. Maybe Russia regroups for rounds 2 and 3. When do those occur? And how old is Putin when they do?
That Is Correct
Macaes saying "I ask people to stop saying Trump did this or that or will do this or that. It’s the United States doing it, not Trump."
Now apply to Palestinians. Will you stop saying Hamas did Oct 7th and rather that the Palestinians and their supporters did.
Upset About Trump?
The time to do something was three years ago. Like when NPR was spending your tax dollars on this stuff.
For Europe, it was when Russia invaded Ukraine.
The Ukraine Thing
Are some of the reports about Trump's handling of Ukraine worrying? Yes, for sure. Ukrainians are some of the few people in the world fighting and fighting well for freedom. For that alone, we should be in their debt - not they in ours.
Treating them as if they are freeloaders is the most disgusting aspect of the MAGA faithful. The MAGA folks, like the wokes, prefer seeing themselves as victims of an international conspiracy rather than part of the United States, the richest, most powerful, and best country on the planet. Act like it.
Our Future
Go online to make a doctor appointment for a sick kid - they ask a long list of questions re certain symptoms one of which is the reason for the appointment in the first place. So I say "yes" has those symptoms after which the online system says - cannot schedule an appointment. So I guess we're reaching the point where hospital systems make it difficult to schedule appointments because patients might be sick. Makes a lot of sense to me.
Playing for Time?
Why isn't playing for time in Ukraine's interest? A lot folks seem to think the ceasefire helps Russia regroup and regather. For what? Another invasion? A subversion of the democratic process? If the Ukrainians can keep 80% of their land and a legal claim on the 20% of their lost territory, I say regroup for 10 years down the line when Putin and Xi are both in their 80s. Good luck on the transition of power if those places. You think US elections are hectic - imagine the chaos in China and Russia...
Read Through the Bullshit Please
Newsom saying we need to rebuild LA for the next 50-100 years.
Notice what he's doing. Buying time so that he won't be evaluated or held to account. How does one preempt criticism for not rebuilding? Extend the timeline. Say...houses aren't built because we're thinking about 50 years into the future. See how it works? These people are clowns, not to be taken seriously.
More of This
Lawsuits on Universities that ignore affirmative action laws. Also, lawsuits for cities that ignore immigration laws.
These so called liberals are often lawless, economic and political illiterates who must be stopped. They are miserable people destroying society by thousands of small cuts.
Logging
Film: 8 1/2
Great attention to side characters and faces.
Film: Dogman
Book is better.
Film: The Fugitive
How did this film didn't get nominated for best adapted screenplay? One the great cases of you don't realize what you're missing until it's gone...in terms of film writing. The dramatic ironies that unfold in the storytelling are next level. How the various story threads and character intentions weave together are so complex and sophisticated, our current landscape of cinema cannot even hold a candle. It's shocking in this "age of AI" when in theory such complicated designs ought to be "easier." Take Anora. The storytelling is completely linear -- A to B to C. Sure, we get some humor out of the dynamics but the ironies and wit are completely absent. And this will probably win best picture or screenplay. Secondly, the filmmakers give moments to so many different characters. The 6th most important character in the film - Tommy Lee Jone's ponytailed trainee has a little arc.
In Other Words
You won't have a house for 2+ years.
Newsom goes on and on about all the considerations like he were writing a grad school essay on the topic. But I can cut through the chase and translate for you - he's saying if you lost your house, you won't have a new one for 2+ years.
Defunding NIH
This guy in panic mode. But like many things, the time to panic was years ago...when scientists and colleges lost the trust of the public by going all in on wokeness and COVID neuroticism. Could they not anticipate the backlash? It was so obvious at the time. Yes, babies are going to be thrown out with the bathwater.
"Unlawful"
Meanwhile, you have Democratic cities racing to make themselves sanctuary cities. I would keep the receipts on the officials who willfully choose to disobey federal law - remember it was tried in the 1860s by the Democrats and how that worked out.
I've thought Galloway was a fraud ever since I bought his dumbass book "The Algebra of Happiness." He's a mediocre self help author. A Tony Robbins for MBAs, only less charismatic.
Brilliant
Israel's defense minister claims that countries like Ireland, Spain, and South African who accused Israel of genocide are legally required to take in Palestinian refugees.
Lawfare can be played two ways. This is the thing everyone forgets...you use the law as a cudgel against Israel, they will use it against you. Same thing now happening with DEI.
Late Charges
I don't totally understand the Trump tariffs, but now beginning to look like they're basically late charges, a simple incentive structure to enforce "good behavior."
I'll Be Taking No Notes
After falling head over heels for Emilia Perez, imagine my surprise to discover the entire world loathes the film - trans, Mexicans, liberals, conservatives. I've been chastised and criticized by students, my wife, the internet. So I felt it was my duty to rewatch. So I started last night. Rewatched the first 10-20 minutes. Are you crazy people?!? This film is incredible. Best film of the year, no irony. Indeed perhaps the filmmaker is correct - Emilia Perez is a saint.
It Is True
That conservatives have been warning about potential airline accidents because of decreased standards of hiring pilots and air traffic controllers. Whether this is the reason of the plane crash remains to be seen, but if you hire goofball managers and executives, you will get things like staffing mistakes leading to accidents.
Deepseek
On the driving range scene - still inaccurate, but better than free chatgpt:
Ah, the driving range scene in The Insider (1999) is one of the most memorable and thematically rich moments in the film. It’s a quiet yet deeply symbolic scene that captures the emotional and psychological toll of Jeffrey Wigand’s (Russell Crowe) decision to blow the whistle on Big Tobacco. Let’s break it down and explore how it differentiates the film from Marie Brenner’s Vanity Fair article, "The Man Who Knew Too Much."
The Driving Range Scene
Context: After Wigand has been fired from Brown & Williamson and is grappling with the fallout of his decision to speak out, he visits a driving range at night. The scene is stark and atmospheric, with Wigand alone in the dimly lit space, hitting golf balls into the darkness. The sound of the club striking the balls echoes loudly, emphasizing his isolation and inner turmoil.
Key Elements:
Visual Symbolism: The driving range is empty and shrouded in darkness, reflecting Wigand’s isolation and the uncertainty of his future. The act of hitting golf balls into the void symbolizes his frustration and helplessness—he’s lashing out, but there’s no clear target or resolution.
Sound Design: The sharp, repetitive sound of the golf club striking the balls creates a sense of tension and release. It mirrors Wigand’s internal struggle—his anger, fear, and need to vent his emotions.
Character Insight: This scene provides a rare moment of vulnerability for Wigand. Away from the legal battles and media scrutiny, he’s alone with his thoughts, and the weight of his decision is palpable. It’s a quiet but powerful depiction of the personal cost of whistleblowing.
How the Scene Differentiates the Film from the Article
Emotional Depth:
The article focuses on the factual details of Wigand’s story—his firing, the legal threats, and his eventual testimony. While it touches on his emotional state, it doesn’t delve as deeply into his inner turmoil.
The film, however, uses scenes like the driving range to explore Wigand’s psychological and emotional struggles. This moment humanizes him, showing the toll that his decision has taken on his mental health and sense of self.
Cinematic Storytelling:
The driving range scene is a purely cinematic invention. It doesn’t appear in the article but serves as a powerful visual and auditory metaphor for Wigand’s isolation and frustration.
The film uses this scene to convey emotions and themes that are difficult to express through dialogue or exposition. The darkness, the echoing sounds, and Wigand’s solitary figure all contribute to the film’s atmospheric and emotional impact.
Thematic Resonance:
The scene reinforces the film’s themes of isolation, sacrifice, and the personal cost of standing up for the truth. Wigand’s actions have made him a pariah, and the driving range becomes a metaphor for his journey into the unknown.
It also highlights the contrast between Wigand’s internal struggle and the external forces arrayed against him. While he’s fighting a very public battle, this scene reminds us that he’s also grappling with private demons.
Character Development:
The article portrays Wigand as a courageous but somewhat stoic figure. The film, through scenes like this, adds layers to his character, showing his vulnerability and humanity.
Russell Crowe’s performance in this scene is particularly nuanced. Without saying a word, he conveys Wigand’s anger, fear, and determination, making the character more relatable and compelling.
Why This Scene Stands Out
The driving range scene is a masterclass in visual storytelling. It doesn’t rely on dialogue or plot advancement to make an impact. Instead, it uses imagery, sound, and performance to convey the emotional core of the story. This is where the film diverges most significantly from the article—it’s not just about the facts of the case but about the human experience behind them.
Conclusion
The driving range scene in The Insider is a poignant and symbolic moment that deepens our understanding of Jeffrey Wigand’s character and the personal cost of his whistleblowing. While the article provides the factual foundation for the story, the film uses scenes like this to explore the emotional and psychological dimensions of the narrative. This is what sets The Insider apart—it’s not just a retelling of events but a deeply human story about courage, sacrifice, and the pursuit of truth.
ChatGPT
Is clearly drunk. I asked it about the film The Insider.
Yes, I do! The driving range scene is a memorable one in The Insider (1999), and it's a key moment in the development of Jeffrey Wigand's character. It happens early in the film and features Jeffrey Wigand (played by Russell Crowe) and Lowell Bergman (Al Pacino). Here’s the scene and its significance:
What Happens: This scene takes place during a conversation between Wigand and Bergman at a driving range. It’s one of the first times that we see them interact on a personal level outside of the more formal settings of interviews or the newsroom. Wigand is clearly troubled, and as he hits golf balls, he opens up to Bergman about his frustrations with the tobacco industry, his fear for his safety, and the pressure he feels. Bergman listens intently and tries to offer some reassurance, but the tension is palpable.
Why It Was Added: The driving range scene serves a few important narrative purposes:
Cinematic Effect: The quiet, almost meditative setting of the driving range contrasts sharply with the high-stakes nature of the tobacco scandal. It’s a moment of quiet reflection that helps to create a contrast to the more intense scenes that follow.
The filmmakers likely included this scene to create emotional depth for Wigand and to show how this whistleblowing journey was affecting him on a personal level. The film needed moments like these to illustrate the psychological toll and the moral weight of being involved in such a significant and dangerous story. It wasn’t just about the facts of the case; it was about the cost to those involved. By using the driving range as a backdrop, the filmmakers allow Wigand to open up in a more relaxed setting, creating a pivotal moment for his character.
So yes, the driving range scene is an important one. It marks the early stages of the emotional unraveling of Wigand’s character and sets the tone for the kind of toll whistleblowing takes on a person’s life. It's a subtle yet effective scene that helps frame his character's complexity.
Logging
Film: Ikiru
One of my mantras of late - grippy loglines and concepts don't matter so much as the filmmaker believing in a premise and making us care. The Brutalist being an example. No one was screaming for a film about a fictional Hungarian architect fleeing Nazi Germany. And yet...
Kurosawa's Ikiru is the epitome of this type of film. It's about a bureaucrat who builds a playground. There is more of course, but for my money the most astonishing storytelling element was how he told the story in the entire third act through a dinner party and flashbacks after the main character dies. His peers debate amongst themselves how much impact the lone bureaucrat actually had. It took me a moment to adjust to this way of telling the story, but was won over in the end.
Deepseek
I get CCP being bad and all, but I'm a hair confused about the Deepseek panic. I played with it today, it works about the same as ChatGPT. I don't pay for either. So the fact it was created on the cheap...can someone explain why it matters so much? I enjoy Oppenheimer and The Brutalist. One was cheap, one was expensive. It just shows the prowess of a single firm making a free internet toy. I get maybe it leads to something larger, but maybe I'm just too dumb to see how it matters so much.
Also - the stocks "tanking" were the SP down 1.7%. Big deal in the scheme of things. But with respect to tanking - why? Was all this investment was premised on the big AI firms having a monopoly getting to charge for it down the line? Now they won't? Wouldn't that benefit all other firms in the world?
Truth is, I don't really understand AI yet. It reminds me of the internet in the old days when I'd look at the computer screen typing in basic commands and think to myself - I'd rather be doing about a million other things. I guess I see the potential right now for some efficiencies in tedious work, but I have this feeling it will be coopted by business and legal cartels (like a lot of other things).
75 More Years
In the past, the Arabs used Palestinian suffering as a geopolitical cudgel against Israel. Now, the leftists and other anti-Israel groups use Palestinian suffering to validate their own bias and criticisms of Israel. They believe not "rewarding" far rightest elements in Israel is more important than Palestinian lives.
Exercise in Your 40s
I figured something out finally. Can't believe it took me so long. But two things happened - I played in a small sided soccer game with subs and felt fine even good afterwards. Then I had to come to a full sided game late and played only 1 half. Felt great after again. Whaaa... Normally, I'm messed up after playing a full game. Being honest, in an 11 v 11 game, odds are 1-2 guys per game get injured. Per game. Per season, that's 10-12 injuries on average or an entire starting lineup. This is why our team attempts to roster almost 20 people.
But here's the secret - take what you could do in your "good fitness era" and just cut your expectations in half. Boom. Done. You could run 5 miles and feel good in your 20s. Run 2.5 miles in your mid 40s. Be happy with it. Anyhow, that's my new model for fitness without injury.
The Pebble In the Shoe Argument
I see liberals occasionally make the "why do you make such a big deal out of DEI" defense. Basically, yes it's stupid, but it's small potatoes. Here's that argument again - that DEI empowered Trump because it irritated so many people like a pebble in the shoe. But if you take this framework, the really interesting question is why couldn't liberals course correct? What made it impossible for liberals to take the pebble out of the shoe and preserve the "good" aspects of so-called diversity. Why did they always go down the maximalist route? This will tell you a lot more about the world.
A Sign that Something May Be Wrong
If you're measuring the nighttime erection data of your 19 year old son.
Start with a disturbing goal (living forever) end up in a strange, dangerous land. Many books tell this story.
Debanking
If this is true and banks were debanking people for political positions, some folks need to go to jail. Start with the folks who made the regulations, next with the bank CEOs, and other decision makers at the banks themselves. That's a form of state sponsored political terrorism.
Bass
Trump takes it to her in this press conference. She's not terrible or ridiculous, but you can see she is not in command of the situation. Also, the mealy mouthed things she's saying are inaccurate and don't reflect the reality on the ground for the people. She's also vague and values "safety" over "action." And this is precisely not what people want today.
The Cost
What did the Democrats lose by embracing DEI, the trans madness, and the corresponding incompetence? The working class and abortion rights. They have no one to blame but themselves. They took their eye off the ball of important and popular positions. If Trump continues on his current path, he will retire a fabulously popular president and Vance will be lined up to succeed him for 2-more terms. And note, Vance will be popular amongst the working class and is the most strident pro-life major politician in a major position of power that I can remember. Dems will be missing New Gingrich and George W Bush who were willing to negotiate on the issue (and frankly, didn't care about it). Vance does.
I see precisely zero evidence the Democrats have any ability to turn things around. Their political hopes rest on unforced errors by Trump and the Republicans. Not a recipe for success.
Yep
The way to stop discriminating by race is to stop discriminating by race.It is indeed not more complicated than that.
The world is full of ironies. The biggest beneficiaries of removing affirmative action will be African Americans. Just as the free market is the best anti-poverty program in the world. It does not make emotional sense, but you will see -- it will work.
And May They Live in Silence and Shame
We are currently watching the wokest elements of the left realizing in real time that they are a tiny minority and that most Americans hate them and their ideas.For a long time they thought they were the dominant force in America, socially and politically. It is now dawning on them, one by one, that they have no power and--worse--that they are reviled and loathed.It's happening right before our eyes like watching a spring flower unfurl its petals.I for one am enjoying it immensely.
Me too. And I will be remembering all who took liberties.
House of Cards
DEI and affirmative action seem to be folding like a house of cards built on sand.
This is astonishing and perhaps the best and least expected political outcomes of my lifetime. How something can go from being built into nearly aspect of American life and then within one election and a few months suddenly become almost completely irrelevant.
In the long run, this is going to be one of the best things that has happened to minorities in America - they are no longer going to be feel ethnically obligated to support what they know to be unmeritocratic.
And by the way, if a some workplaces still value diversity - terrific! It might work for them (although I doubt it will). But as a requirement at every level and every institution...this alone makes the Trump presidency a resounding success so far.
Biden Reveals
...As he leaves office, Eric Adams reveals why Dems couldn't do anything regarding immigration - Biden said to him "be a good Democrat."
The Yarvin Interview
Not impressive questions by the interviewer. Which helps Yarvin. Does the interviewer think his job is to gasp in NPR-esque shock or ask substantial questions? I have so many questions - this CEO of America idea sounds ridiculous, mostly because - a country is not a company! A company can select and fire shit employees. What does a country do with all the shit citizens? We can't just throw them away. Also, a shit company can be abandoned by employees and investors. Can a country? Certainly not so easily. This premise is preposterous. Also, a company can focus on a narrow goal - creating a profitable product. Is that the function of a country? How well does Apple provide national defense? Build roads. Educate all the citizens. Provide social security? It does literally none of the above.
Can he cite an actual country that provides a model of his type of proposed governance? Maybe there is a reason post-democracy that all dictatorships/CEOships fall into tyranny. Maybe Singapore? Do we see a lot of Americans moving to Singapore? Why not? Why not a charter city or charter state to test his model? Why do we need to do the entire country? Is China a model for what he's proposing? Does anyone actually find China a model for the "common good."
He cites FDR as a precedent as CEO of America. Wouldn't a much easier proposal simply be to abandon term limits? That's what got us FDR. We don't need to reorganize the entire political system.
And who selects the CEO? He doesn't even discuss it! What a ridiculous interview.
Yaaasss
You don't have ADHD, you're just annoying.
Agree with all this. A lot of this pathologizing is really just an epic cope for being rude, impatient pieces of shit.
Logging
Films: A Real Pain and The Brutalist
I didn't know a ton about either film, so I inadvertently had a Jewish film weekend...I'm glad I watched both, and the highlight for me was surely the first half of the Brutalist.
A Real Pain felt super thin - one might say - nothing happened. Too linear. I could contextualize it another way. I wouldn't go on a tour for vacation and the film is about going on a tour. The "big reveal" was not much of one.
Brutalist was brilliant, ambitious, uplifting until the 3rd act turned into misery porn. What is misery porn? Art that supposedly has great ambitions but in the end can land on cliche that everything really sucks. You can only put so much lipstick on that pig.
We Live in a World
Where this is the reality - and it makes a strange sort of sense.
Trump did what none of the college protesters or all of the American foreign policy establishment could not -- in one meeting -- he got the ceasefire.
If I bought the genocide argument, I would be forced to conclude the person who stopped it was Trump.
And They Brought The World to the Brink of Disaster
Biden's full throated endorsement of equity in his cabinet.
Measuring optics and not results will lead to poor outcomes.
Fire Arrests
60 people in LA arrested so far for looting and starting fires. Will they release the racial demographics to make sure the arrests are equitable and diverse, I wonder.
Logging
Book: Case Histories by Kate Atkinson
Some laugh out loud paragraphs about characters. For that, I read the book. Some folks call this a literary mystery novel. Is that code for a bad mystery? Because I guessed the main mystery about 1/3 of the way in. She pulls a decent "trick" by layering in a number of mysteries, so in fact, you are thinking to yourself while you get these sparse clues - how will this tie together? It's an interesting technique. The jumping around POVs and time was often off putting. She would occasionally end chapters on what I'd call - pre-climaxes - and withhold information that would inspire future action. So we'd get future actions with a gap in understanding the motivation or knowledge of the characters. Personally, I found this quite annoying. The time jumps backwards and forwards were often pointless and I felt done only as an attempt to create suspense when the narrative itself could not provide tension.
Why people like these books, I imagine, is they capture a certain vibe. Part of a broad category of what I'd call "female honesty" stories which purport to portray what is "really feels like" to be female. I find this code for - girls being shitty and finding complex ways to justify it. I haven't seen Babygirl, but it seems like an entry in this genre as well. My wife described the story and I said, if the genders were reversed, the man would be considered a monster. But when the women does it, it's considered "complex."
In any case, a certain type of female reader (lets just be clear here - liberal) seems to enjoy women who bash on motherhood, how much they hate children - including their own, how men are terrible and often worthy of murder, etc. The bad men in the story are indeed monsters - unexplored, uninteresting, monsters whereas the female monsters are complex, mysterious, and to be empathized with. I imagine this element is what readers enjoy - as a way vicariously to indulge their own "bad sides."
Not that there's anything wrong with it!
But all that said, I never hear anyone talk about the TV show Girls anymore and that was a pioneer in this genre.