I'll admit to being clueless about elections...for instance, I thought Romney would beat Obama (although I thought Obama would beat McCain), but my instinct is that Trump will win simply because his supporters are more passionate about him than Clinton's supporters are for her. Looking back on my lifetime, I think passion is what wins out.
Bill Clinton's supporters were more passionate than George Bush. GW's were more passionate than Al Gore. Obama more than McCain.
Clinton is the logical choice. I'll probably even vote for her because I like to protect my downside and think Trump offers more downside, but I nevertheless cannot shake the fact that a good number of her supporters have - since the beginning - been looking elsewhere (biden, sanders, warren, etc), whereas Trump, on the other hand, seems to be gathering converts.
I also find it pretty discouraging that liberal outlets think Clinton won the debate and conservative outlets think Trump won the debate. What kind of surreal country do we live in where we all see what we want to see? Maybe the debates aren't even competitions at all, but just a tv shows where opinion is gonna be split.
I came away thinking less of Trump and the same of Hillary. The small things stuck out to me. Trump doesn't pay his Federal taxes. He can't both be proud of being a successful businessman and also proud of not paying taxes. Not to me, anyway. Hillary annoyed me with her bringing up the women getting paid less than men lie and this idea of "implicit bias" suggesting everyone is racist, which of course, means the idea of being racist has zero meaning if you take it to a logical conclusion.