Recession In A Month Or So People
I see these folks on twitter saying we're definitely going into recession soon because of tariffs. Like for sure. And it's gonna hurt. But the thing is - if you knew this, the last thing you would do is go on twitter and tell everyone. You'd short the market and shut up.
MS-13
People keep calling the MS-13 tats photoshopped but clearly the letters/numbers are added to interpret the gang code - like subtitles in a foreign film.
I get the marijuana leaf = M, smile = S but why would the cross and skull equal 13? I guess the shapes are suggestive? Can the media actually do some reporting on this? Can someone interview a gang expert at least? The discussions around the entire thing are absurd.
Further, I could believe the tats were meant as MS-13 - but that doesn't make the guy a member for sure. Could be a poser.
SJP
Like all Islamists, they can win tactical victories - several in a row, even but it's all wrapped up in a losing strategy. They get weaker and poorer and more and more reliant on moonshots while their opponents keep getting richer and smarter and more populous.
Impressive
Pam Bondi says DEA fentanyl bust saved 119 million American lives. 1/3 of the entire country!
Maybe they meant 119 people. Not sure.
Rockets - Warriors
Fascinating game last night. After the fast Warriors start, I thought the Rockets had them figured out. Thompson on Curry. Play through Sengun instead of Green. Get Smith and Eason on the floor for outside shooting. Attack Draymond and get him in foul trouble. Make the "others" beat you. There were sequences in the game when Rockets defense was absolutely stifling.
But...Sengun seems to get a bit psyched out by Draymond. Not sure why. He's taller and quicker and I think the Rockets are smart to attack Green defensively to both get him in foul trouble and wear him down. Warriors have no interior D without Draymond. And Pods, Butler, and Hield showed up. Game could've gone either way. Brooks foul on Jimmy was beyond dumb. Also, soft call if you ask me. Crazy as well Butler didn't get a flagrant or tech on his takedown of Brooks. Worrisome for Rockets - they cannot expect another game like that from VanVleet...
Why Dems Make Thing Suck
Obama efforts to make cars more efficient lead to larger and larger cars.
Perversely, Democrats planning, "intelligence," and sense of morality works against them. They think they understand complex systems, but they only understand 1st order effects. Republicans have all sorts of poor motivation for their policies - like selfishness and subtle racism, but they might be perversely better than the Dems attempts to social engineer outcomes.
Adam Schiff
The highest I've ever thought on him in this clip.
I don't see how any of these California politicians can hold their heads high when they look upon their own state.
Copying Works Both Ways
China copies our good stuff, but we can copy their good stuff too... a 20K bare bones electric pick up.
Rubio
I don't find anything he's been saying publicly to be wrong. Prefer him to Vance to take the helm from Trump.
I see little hope for any Democrat so long as Trump continues to moderate on tariffs and some of the more extreme deportation stuff.
PS -
A few weeks ago, every commentator was using the global stock market fall as evidence for Trump's failure (never mind that they would never use such a measure to compliment his prior Presidency). Now VT is down 1.5% YTD. Hmmm.
Who Holds The Cards?
I fail to see why any number of the 5 billion non-Chinese people in the world can't assemble iPhones and manufacture other products that are done in China on the cheap.
MAGA is Obsessed with Trans?
She's got it all backwards. Maga uses trans issues because it's a clear political winner for them. They will keep repeating and repeating the issue so long as the Democrats are on the wrong side of it. And they are. The gender transition stuff is just absolute madness. As are boys in women's sports. Every single normal person actually has to deal with this nonsense these days. And of course it is not the biggest issue in the world! But it's horrible for the Democrats. Because it shows they have no sense of reality. When you get caught in a lie, you lose trust not on one issue, but ALL issues. This is the hugest Democrat "own goal" of my lifetime. Even the question of how Israel treats the Palestinians has a hair more connection to reality than the trans issue. And no, Republicans didn't start the nonsense. The Democrats did, by prioritizing the most radical elements of the LGBT+ agenda. The old rule was leave everyone alone and we're cool. When it changed to make everyone accept what is patently false - that's when the Democrats lost the normies. It's political suicide.
None of the Anti-Israel Positions Ever Make Sense To Me
The critics who call the war genocide also called the occupation from before the war genocide. And before the occupation, they called 1948 the Nabka and refuse to acknowledge Israel has any right to exist. It keeps going back to this circular logic that ends with supporting Hamas or PLO or basically any organization that uses violence against Israel. What makes no sense is that no one would support say, the 2 million displaced Chinese who left China for Taiwan attacking mainland China. Or for that matter, the native Taiwanese who saw 2 million Chinese migrants enter their country and then start suiciding bombing them.
The point is, the anti-Israel folks never come up with a reasonable compromise. Never put anything but violence on the table. Never exert pressure on their own side to compromise. And thus ensure perpetual war hoping that someone else will shame Israel into not acting in their own interest. What country or state has ever voluntarily ceased to exist? It ain't gonna happen.
NY Times on Fire
First, Douthat's column on the age of extinction is a must read. I remain a hair more optimistic - my general feel is that things can change quickly for both worse and better. So this notion that we all voluntarily stop procreating and life ends can easily be turned around by simply turning off video games and porn, I think. But he's really onto something about how physical life has become so much more difficult whereas online life so much more easy. To give a simple example - little league vs video games. The fortnite video game costs something like $50 and could entertain (if I let it) my kids for 2 hours each a day. They will be safe and happy in the short run. To compare, baseball practice can similarly entertain them for 2 hours, but it takes driving 15 minutes each way, it takes me doing coaching training and filling out tons of paperwork, costs hundreds of dollars each for league fees, hundreds each more for bats, helmets, gloves...it takes tremendous coordination and effort by parents, coaches, league volunteers, parks and rec for field access, etc. It is at least 15% more difficult than when I was a kid. And that's for a well-organized system with deep roots. I can make a similar point about skiing.
My point - recreation in the US is by some measure worse than when I was a kid whereas the video games are clearly like 5x better than when I was a kid. It's only one example, but shows why we are being pushed more into the virtual and must remain intentional to get out.
Next, this ADHD article feels urgent and important. Two things to note - the "disease" is diagnosed by behaviors and cannot be identified by any biomarker. And the disease is treated with amphetamines for kids with notable side effects. It remains unclear in a lot of cases whether the ADHD diagnosis can be separated from other issues - example being anxiety disorder. Kids may display ADHD "symptoms" and be diagnosed with ADHD when in fact they have anxiety. Well worth a read for the many folks dealing with doctors and teachers telling you your kid has ADHD.
Remarkable
0% of Americans think the tariffs will personally benefit them.
Who says we're economically illiterate?
A Solution to the Kilmar Garcia Case
We should bring him back to the US where he will likely commit a crime and both Dems and Republicans get to look like heroes. Dems for preserving the rule of law and the Republicans for correctly sussing out he was a criminal. As they say, solve for the equilibrium.
Not Helping
Hate to say it, but big long conversations with groups of women on live TV don't further the cause women's lib movement. Yes, you get one of four who know what they are talking about but those are the one's who get silenced by the others and drowned out.
And here Candace Owen's calls the NASA program fake and gay. It is funny, but not in the way she thinks it is.
UPDATE: Kanye now thinking Candace Owens might be a little crazy.
Sad But Perhaps True
Yglesias and Hanania think MAGA men want women to be poorer so they can have a better shot with the ladies. Gender dynamics can explain quite a lot in society, so I think they are onto something. The men, however, are dumb. If you are a guy with the following:
-A full time job (any, even a bad one)
-Some realistic ambition
-And remotely in-shape/attractive, ie not obese, a slob, or clearly unhealthy
-No disqualifying personality traits (psycho vibes)
Or perhaps just 3.5 of the 4, you will attract a decent woman.
All these incel and Maga types are the wokie's evil twin - they blame complex systemic when a simpler solution to their ailments would simply be: get a job, eat healthier, and/or jog.
Moral Panic
The first moral panic I personally fell for - the Iraq War. I supported it as a 60-40 proposition that it would usher in a change in the Middle East. In that, I was wrong. I also figured getting rid of the most evil man/family in the world might be good unto itself. Still...the emotional sway of the arguments for the war was what won me over at the time. Now I've seen the playbook 10-15x since then. The same pattern being used A LOT around a lot of different issues. The environment? Remember that? What ever happened with climate change ruining earth? Is it still happening? You wouldn't know it by what folks talk about. Guns? School shootings? COVID and vaccine mandates, etc? China, Ukraine, Russia. Stolen elections. DEI. George Floyd. Each one of these issues is built into moral panic. Then it was Doge, which everyone seems to have forgotten from a measly two weeks ago. Then tariffs. Now immigration -- the Maryland man deported. Don't get me wrong. I think it's terrible. But the moral panic around issue is by design and how many times can we be told the sky is falling...
For The Record...
...I'm glad Harvard is standing up for themselves but they and other colleges put themselves in this situation.
...I don't support deporting our citizens even if they're criminals. Question, though: why doesn't the Left consider this a fringe, small issue that doesn't impact many people like they do with transgender stuff? Curious minds want to know...
...Yes there probably is a smarter way to do the tariffs, but if that were the case, why don't we have it?
...And yes, there is probably a smarter way to do DOGE, but again if that were the case, why don't we have it?
...I'm starting to wonder if Russia and China might have screwed themselves over... Could Trump and the West switch course and just decide to buttress Ukraine for the long haul and continue to bleed Russia? Could we transfer all the most useful lessons and tech from Ukraine to Taiwan in the meantime? Let the tariffs hurt an already fragile Chinese economy. People think Xi is tough, but he folded on zero COVID when the Chinese people started watching the world cup. His country doesn't want to be a pariah. Also...China doesn't need to invade Taiwan. This is a paranoid, absurd idea and if the Chinese are as smart as everyone thinks they are, they should know this. I hope the CIA is in touch with all the generals Xi has fired over the past several years and coaching them how to organize a revolution from within.
Logging
Film : The Wild Pear Tree
Watched it like I was reading a novel. Slowly, over the course of several nights. Loved, loved, loved it.
Story: Brokeback Mountain
I'll admit I got a little teary. Also, the story isn't about LGBTQ blah blah blah. It's about what time does to memory, about the impossibility of recapturing the past, relationships that matter and only realizing it too late. It's about love and life.
And What of The Palestinian Strategy?
Taleb likes to critique the Israeli strategy of needing to kill more and more people to survive. But what of the Arab strategy? To keep being killed is surely a worse strategy, especially for a guy who places such a high premium on basics like "survival."
Bonkers
A hilarious exchange where BBC news hosts insist this politician needs to watch Adolescence. My God.
And she calls it a documentary. Unclear. Does the women think the story is real? Or based on reality and not understand it's a fictional drama?
And So We Get Tariffs
This is one of those stories that could only happen in California:1. Mayor of Los Angeles issues an executive directive making it fast & easy to build 100% affordable housing.2. She doesn’t include any new public money in the order, so it’s supposed to just be a fake messaging thing.3. But there normal process to build housing in CA is so terrible, new policies that make it easy to build can be profitable (even for affordable housing).4. So private developers start building a ton of new housing using this streamlined process.5. Faced with a surprising pro-housing supply policy success, the mayor immediately started amending the directive to be more burdensome and revert to the status quo.
We can literally do nothing anymore. Probably best to just start learning Chinese.
Agree
When he doesn't talk about Palestine, his stuff makes sense:
If the US wants to reduce its external deficit there is only one way: fiscal discipline, end to budget deficits, price and salary devaluation, structural reforms in education and innovation, more competition in product markets
One could include housing into this morass as well.
True
People who support Trump imposing the tariffs will also Trump support lifting the tariffs.
Although it should be also pointed out, when the stock market went up during Trump 1, people criticized him for making the rich richer and now that it's going down, they are also criticizing him for making everyone poorer.
Stock Futures Plunging
Once again, Warren Buffet the only one publicly going to cash last year - the man remains undefeated.
The shocker with this one - entirely triggered by non-emergency public policy choice by an American president. Normally, these things happen for financial or economic reasons, but this one purely induced by policy. Live and learn.
My Read on Trump and the Tariffs
My sense of Trump is that he can read the room and learn from mistakes. My guess is that he'll adjust the tariffs to make more sense over time. Perhaps this is being generous, but I see him as pragmatic and opportunistic, not fanatical. I know others see him different. I guess time will tell. But as Tyler Cowen always says: "are you short the market?"
Trade War
So now Americans can't buy the newest Nintendo Switch. Are we so sure we can win this trade war?
The Tariffs
Seem like a bad idea being handled in the way they are. Bluntly. The best argument seem to be: we've already lost our ability to be a global superpower and keep free trade secure around the world. So we might as well retreat to our hemisphere and re-shore industry here. Taiwan will belong to China and Ukraine to Russia. And let's cross our fingers and hope things work out.
The Algorithms No Longer Work
Because people got wise...
I took my kids and their cousins to the computer history museum over Christmas where they had various AI robots and the kids immediately began bullying the AI. This was their natural reaction. When I see a robot delivering food, my initial reaction is to kick it over. You think something is wrong with me? I think something is wrong with you. Who wants these robots doing anything, much less calling the shots. Only the autistic. I'm not going to apologize for being a humanist...
Now we see even the cleverist systems breaking down. I noticed this on my own film - 29% rotten tomatoes critics, 97% rotten tomatoes audience, 5.2 rating on imdb, 2.4 rating on letterboxd. So the film ranges from shitty, to mediocre, to great on all the different algorithms. And Snow White. 1.9 on imdb, 40% critics on rotten tomatoes, 70% audience on rotten tomatoes, 2.0 on letterboxd. None of the numbers make any sort of sense. They might as well be monkey shit spraying all over the place. It's obvious with Snow White, the 1.9 on imdb are being rigged by "haters" but isn't the audience on rotten tomatoes "reacting" to the "haters". At some point we're going to get algorithms that algorithm the algorithms and every film ever made will be a perfect 5/10.
Re: Tariffs
I don't think America can sustain ourselves by simply being a consumer market and living on financial products, ie stock growth.
We need industries. We need to build. The past 25 years we've been carving up every industry but tech.
So will the tariffs work? Probably not, but no one else has any other ideas so tariffs is what we're doing.
Start Reading The Chinese Perspective
Because we'll be soon living under it whether we want to or not.
The added benefit is this guy is more rational than 80% of American commentary on the Ukraine war.