"Stuck In Gaza"

Taleb compares 6 day war to Israel being "stuck in Gaza" for 145 days. In 1967, Israel faced annihilation by three countries invading them. Today, they've lost under 300 soldiers and are at war with an irregular force while all their current peace treaties remain in place. 

He goes on to claim China will be the global power in 15 years and the US will be run by the woke. This is the most un-Taleb prediction in his history. This is a guy who talks about lindy effect - that the longer things survive, they more likely they are to have staying power. Wokeness?!? How durable has this proven to be? The CCP in China? I suppose we'll see, but I don't know...is this a society that the world wants to be the global leader? Didn't we just get to see an up close test of the difference between the US and China? China is the country that birthed the coronavirus and the US is the country that developed and distributed the vaccine. 

This clown thinks Israel won't exist in 15 years. I'd bet on Israel over Putin's government, the CCP, or the Ayatollah's in Iran. Are these bastions of stable governments ready to hang onto power? I don't think so. 

UPDATE: That said, there are some indicators the US is a total mess and perhaps a house of cards - Google's Gemini and Mademe Web are pretty good red light warning signals - but my point is that to make this argument is a very un-Taleb take.