Oil Theory

For the folks getting excited about "blocking" China's oil, just want to point out that's precisely what led to Pearl Harbor -- the choking off of a rising Asian power's fuel.

For the Record

I pitched this idea weeks ago: oil pipelines bypassing the Persian Gulf either into the Mediterranean Sea or the Red Sea. 

No brainer to build in flexibility.

Conveniently Forgetting

Or, Saudi or UAE.  

What a dummy.

Bad Idea

To blow up Iran's water. Again, a misestimation of who we're facing. I agree they are suicidal maniacs running their country, so what makes us think this ridiculous threat wouldn't just play right into their hands?

The Alternative

I know people in CA complain a lot about high housing prices, but in the scheme of things, it probably beats the alternative, i.e., low housing costs.

You Don't Have to Be Right All The Time, Just When It Matters

We, the US, don't need to win decisively every single battle or skirmish. We lost Vietnam and still won the Cold War. 

AI

When I picture a "good day" or even a "great day," in no way does AI factor in at all. 

Logging

Film: Project Hail Mary

Hollywood is back.  

They managed to pull off what I didn't dream they could anymore - a crowd-pleasing four-quadrant live action film. I loved the first 1/4 to 1/2 of the film. When it becomes more like ET, less so. But that's my taste. Also, they didn't, IMO, stick the landing. Unnecessarily complicated. But overall, couldn't ask more from the studios these days.

It got me thinking about Gosling and how I perceived something in both the film and marketing. He's passed Leo in movie start status. Here's what I think it means to be a movie star: they connect with a number of different audiences. Leo became a heartthrob with Titanic and Romeo and Juliet, but became a star when he began a successful collab with Scorsese. Leo became a guy both men and women championed.

A movie star needs multiple avenues to maintain a connection with audiences and stay relevant in the public mind. This is why so many benefit from the tabloid angle. Leo had it all for a while - heartthrob, tabloids, men, and the "film buff" crowd. Scorsese was a brilliant collaborator because he helped Leo connect with both men and film buffs.  

So what has Gosling done that Leo hasn't? Gosling, I think, has found an angle with Project Hail Mary to connect to the "next generation." The kids. Leo hasn't. That's why no one watched the Oscars this year. Millions of young audiences didn't give a shit about any of it. This film (and if the new Star Wars project works) can give Gosling 10+ more years of runway.

One Battle did nothing for Leo but fan service. He already had the film buffs. This is the one problem for PTA - he has only one audience going for him - male film buffs, college/grad school types. Scorsese also appeals to working-class men.

Going through some other stars in my mind, and I observe a pattern:

Denzel. Spike Lee and the Scott Brothers. He managed to become an icon of black audiences via Spike Lee collabs, but an icon to American men by working with the Scott brothers. But the moment Denzel become a bonafide star was Julia Roberts freaking out over his Oscar. At that moment, the most trusted female star of her generation gave him the stamp of approval after their Pelican Brief collab and boom! He hit the trifeca and has never looked back. It also helped he was a Lakers fan and maintained a connection with the sports audience.

Tom Cruise. Still the GOAT movie star. Two big moves - with Top Gun Maverick, he managed to pull a Gosling before Gosling and get an entire younger generation on board with him. A family friendly action film with him front and center that kids could love. But his second great move was his own myth-making stunt gimmicks - of being an old guy who does these remarkable stunts. This is a clever way to remain public without resorting to tabloid relationship stuff, to get notice even when you don't have a hit movie. To lay groundwork.

TBC...  

5th Column

I'm sympathetic to the charge that many in the US (and the West in general) root for our defeat. This is a common refrain from the Right side of the aisle. But I have trouble squaring this belief with the war of choice with Iran. How can one believe we are being eaten within and are one Donald Trump election away from "losing the country" and also think we should be going to war? I find these two ideas contradictory. In fact, if we are indeed on the brink of "losing the country," the last thing we need is a war. 

No Kings

I'm 100% convinced that the "No Kings" is a social event for many of the participants. Americans post-COVID stopped having parties and social engagements are probably down 20-25%. I believe this impacts what Alex Trebek would call "losers" the most. They want something to do. No Kings offers them this. 

Criticize youth sports in the US all you want, but all the parents I know are spending Saturdays at Youth Sports stuff, and not a single person would miss a sports event for No Kings. To put in perspective how important this thing is for regular people.

And as a political message, I can't remember a dumber slogan. We don't have a King. Trump was elected. Like it or not. 

Funny, If It Weren't True

How it started, how's it going... 

We shouldn't really be surprised young people are prone toward lunacy...John Walker Lindh showed us 25 years ago. What's surprising is when the Dems attempt to use these kids to score political victories.

Flashback

To understand why Hollywood is dead, look at this Variety article about the best one-liner in the past 15-20s uttered by none other than Alex Trebek. No mention of the brilliant timing or content, which transcends time and national boundaries or even the good-natured way in which even the contestent takes the quip. This is an all-timer. Also, the feather in the cap of Trebek's long career - like Messi finally winning the World Cup or Elway getting his Super Bowl. And yet...here is Variety's headline:

Alex Trebek Faces Backlash After Calling Nerdcore Hip-Hop Fans ‘Losers’ on ‘Jeopardy!’

 And their take: 

After an antagonizing sigh, Trebek replied, “Losers, in other words” before following up to say he was “teasing.”

 

All About The Oil

It was never true in Iraq p2, but now perhaps is. 

Logging

TV: DTF St. Louis E1

I came for Jason Bateman's sleaze, but I'll stay for David Harbor's belly.

Sounds About Right

Liberals believe the US should support our allies, but they don't need to return the favor. 

So is liberal now just synonymous with unreasonable women?

Threatening to Leave

Iran's flawed strategy to close the straits. Anyone who's ever dealt with a crazy partner knows crazy doesn't work for long. You threaten crazy shit, and the partner backs down the first time. But then they realize, wait...I don't need to deal with this shit and call the bluff. The crazy person might do the crazy shit, but by doing so, lose all leverage. 

We, the US, could sit on our hands and say, fine...keep the straits closed. Who says it's our responsibility to keep it open?

Welp

Open AI suddenly leaves text to video.  

It would take a heart of stone not to laugh.