The Final Analysis:  Kaepernick vs. Smith

No one is even still debating Harbaugh's decision to bench Alex Smith in favor of Kaepernick anymore.  Superficially, the decision seems to be a winner - the Niners went further this year than last year and put up more offensive numbers.  Crabtree came out of his shell.  Kaepernick electrified the league.

But consider this:  Alex Smith is going to land somewhere next year and play.  The Niners lost a very winnable Super Bowl game.  Kaepernick looked shaky for large amounts of the game.  And this year loss feels a lot worse than last years NFC Championship loss.

I still think it was a mistake.  I realize this makes me sound crazy, because the Niners were close to the Super Bowl this year, but I think the following statements are true:

1.  Alex Smith was playing better this year than last year.

2.  The defense played worse when Kaepernick played.  One interpretation of this situation - Harbaugh knew the league was figuring out our defense or knew our guys getting tired and injured and knew we needed an offensive upgrade.  Another interpretation - Kaepernick makes more big plays, but also more mistakes that lead to short drives and turnovers - both of which cause the defense to be on the field longer.

3.  Although the Niners got to the Super Bowl this year, they had lucky breaks in both the Green Bay and the Atlanta game.  Green Bay's fumble on the punt return and the defensive play at the very end of the game against Atlanta were key plays that could have easily swung the game the other way.  Likewise, last year, we fumbled away two punt returns and lost to the Giants.  Basically, one could argue all those games came down to luck.

4.  The Super Bowl, on the other hand, really didn't come down to luck.  The Ravens outplayed the Niners even though it was close at the end.  I can't help but think Alex Smith would have led us to an equally close game, whether it was a win or loss.

5.  Crabtree played better when Kaepernick was in the game and we had more big play potential and the threat of the pistol run.  But we had less turnovers, better redzone play, better clock management, longer time of possession, better running yardage when Alex Smith played.  To me, this does not represent a no brain trade off.

6.  Win Loss Record under Harbaugh:  Smith - 19-5 (79%); Kaepernick 7-3 (70%).  I do not count the tie against the Rams because each of them played about 1/2 the game.  This number is tricky for a variety of reasons:  strength of schedule and strength of team over time and small sample size.  But the numbers should indicate, at the very least, a non-no-brainer.

In conclusion, I still believe this was Alex Smith's year.  He had earned the right to try and lead the Niners to victory.  If he succeeded, great.  If not, we have the Kaepernick option for the future.  Now, we are committed to the Kaepernick option.  He is a good, exciting young player.  But we do not know what the future holds.