Logging
Reading: The Secret Pilgrim by John Le Carre
I'm sensing I'm going to be reading a lot of Le Carre these next couple months. Not because I think I'll enjoy any of his books more than Spy Who Came In From the Cold or Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy, but because he's written so much and there's something to be said for someone who just keeps going.
Sunday, March 16, 2014
Logging
Book: Upside of Down: Why Failing Well Is the Key to Success by Megan McArdle
She's one of my favorite bloggers and I love the premise of the book, but I realized I'm learning very little from reading it. I'm also disappointed she uses so many examples from the entertainment industry, particularly the bit regarding Titanic and Waterworld. Guess what? Waterworld just became profitable recently. Also guess what? Everyone already knows most movies are gambles.
Anyhow, I suppose there are downsides to reading a book where you already agree with the premise because...what's the point, really? If you already agree and already live using the principles she talks about...what do you expect to get from it? Justification? I don't have anyone asking me to justify my choices.
Book: Upside of Down: Why Failing Well Is the Key to Success by Megan McArdle
She's one of my favorite bloggers and I love the premise of the book, but I realized I'm learning very little from reading it. I'm also disappointed she uses so many examples from the entertainment industry, particularly the bit regarding Titanic and Waterworld. Guess what? Waterworld just became profitable recently. Also guess what? Everyone already knows most movies are gambles.
Anyhow, I suppose there are downsides to reading a book where you already agree with the premise because...what's the point, really? If you already agree and already live using the principles she talks about...what do you expect to get from it? Justification? I don't have anyone asking me to justify my choices.
Bret Easton Ellis
Listening to his podcast and enjoying it...for the moment. On the one hand, I'm sympathetic to his laments about the movie biz and his fading-empire theory of the media. On the other, how sure are we that these grandiose notions of decline, etc, isn't just a reflection of one man's depression?
I'm getting older now and thusly pay attention to older people more than I used to. And when the "they don't make 'em like they used to" lament comes out -- as it always does in different forms -- I cannot honestly tell whether something has changed or we've both just gotten old.
But maybe there is something good out of it -- I much prefer Elli's podcasts to his books or the movies he's been a part of.
Listening to his podcast and enjoying it...for the moment. On the one hand, I'm sympathetic to his laments about the movie biz and his fading-empire theory of the media. On the other, how sure are we that these grandiose notions of decline, etc, isn't just a reflection of one man's depression?
I'm getting older now and thusly pay attention to older people more than I used to. And when the "they don't make 'em like they used to" lament comes out -- as it always does in different forms -- I cannot honestly tell whether something has changed or we've both just gotten old.
But maybe there is something good out of it -- I much prefer Elli's podcasts to his books or the movies he's been a part of.
Gyms
A new YMCA is opening up near my house and the monthly membership is $47 plus a $49 dollar membership fee. They will have swimming and basketball and classes and all that stuff, which is cool, and probably makes the membership worthwhile IF, and this is a big IF, you use all the facilities.
I called Gold's Gym hollywood and the same deal - around $50 a month.
Now I'm someone whose primary athletic activities are sports -- soccer, basketball, and an occasional jog. I would like a gym to visit once or twice a week to do a few leg exercises. I can't see committing $50 a month. Am I wrong? Being to frugal? I dunno. Gyms have become this thing where they are trying to make themselves all-encomasing and the primary focus of one's exercise routine. I sort of miss the idea of just a simple weight room where you go to build a little strength.
A new YMCA is opening up near my house and the monthly membership is $47 plus a $49 dollar membership fee. They will have swimming and basketball and classes and all that stuff, which is cool, and probably makes the membership worthwhile IF, and this is a big IF, you use all the facilities.
I called Gold's Gym hollywood and the same deal - around $50 a month.
Now I'm someone whose primary athletic activities are sports -- soccer, basketball, and an occasional jog. I would like a gym to visit once or twice a week to do a few leg exercises. I can't see committing $50 a month. Am I wrong? Being to frugal? I dunno. Gyms have become this thing where they are trying to make themselves all-encomasing and the primary focus of one's exercise routine. I sort of miss the idea of just a simple weight room where you go to build a little strength.
Perfect
A Twitter account revealing the dark secrets of New Media.
None of the stuff surprises me at all - particularly the Atlantic becoming a lifestyle/advertising website. It used to be my favorite publication, now I don't even visit anymore. They are one step away from being a top 10 list click-through.
A Twitter account revealing the dark secrets of New Media.
None of the stuff surprises me at all - particularly the Atlantic becoming a lifestyle/advertising website. It used to be my favorite publication, now I don't even visit anymore. They are one step away from being a top 10 list click-through.
Saturday, March 15, 2014
Sounds Like An Onion Article
SAUDI CLERIC ISSUES FATWA AGAINST ALL-YOU-CAN-EAT BUFFETS: A Saudi cleric named Saleh al-Fawzan has issued fatwa against all-you-can-eat buffets in Saudi Arabia. He made the statement on a Saudi Quranic TV station. Fawzan said the value and quantity of the food sold should be pre-determined before hand. “Whoever enters the buffet and eats for 10 or 50 riyals without deciding the quantity they will eat is violating Sharia (Islamic) law,” Fawzan was quoted on al-Atheer channel. The fatwa attempts to add plate piling eateries to the long list of things outlawed by religious edicts. It has been the subject of condemnation and debate on social media channels.
Thursday, March 13, 2014
Brave New Stereotypes
On the "Lean In"culture.
As far as I can tell, feminism has become about amassing power and furthering interest rather than any sort of crusade for fairness and justice.
On the "Lean In"culture.
As far as I can tell, feminism has become about amassing power and furthering interest rather than any sort of crusade for fairness and justice.
Logging
TV: True Detective Finale
Probably my least favorite episode. I liked the final line, but almost everything up to that point was disappointing. Again, it goes back to the mystery -- I can't help but feel "that's it?" This is a problem with mystery as a genre. The premise of a mystery is that your questions will be answered and the audience will be rewarded by paying attention. The bigger the mystery, the more intriguing questions asked, the increased expectations for delivering on the answers. JJ Abrams and Damon Lindelof are the masters of posing huge, intriguing questions, and then giving you, small disappointing, nonsensical answers. Prometheus, Super 8, you see this storytelling device enough...I don't need to watch 100s of hours of Lost to know it'll make me feel stupid and make no sense at the end. True Detective commits a much lesser, but similar offense. It promises a big dark monster with "broader ideas at work," but ultimately settles on just a big weirdo in the woods. I can't quite understand how the cops didn't find this guy earlier, frankly. Still, the show was enjoyable. A nice hold-me-over until Game of Thrones.
Film: Chungking Express
I stopped watching because I fell asleep. I had no idea whether I was halfway through or five minutes from the end. Still, there are some great parts.
TV: True Detective Finale
Probably my least favorite episode. I liked the final line, but almost everything up to that point was disappointing. Again, it goes back to the mystery -- I can't help but feel "that's it?" This is a problem with mystery as a genre. The premise of a mystery is that your questions will be answered and the audience will be rewarded by paying attention. The bigger the mystery, the more intriguing questions asked, the increased expectations for delivering on the answers. JJ Abrams and Damon Lindelof are the masters of posing huge, intriguing questions, and then giving you, small disappointing, nonsensical answers. Prometheus, Super 8, you see this storytelling device enough...I don't need to watch 100s of hours of Lost to know it'll make me feel stupid and make no sense at the end. True Detective commits a much lesser, but similar offense. It promises a big dark monster with "broader ideas at work," but ultimately settles on just a big weirdo in the woods. I can't quite understand how the cops didn't find this guy earlier, frankly. Still, the show was enjoyable. A nice hold-me-over until Game of Thrones.
Film: Chungking Express
I stopped watching because I fell asleep. I had no idea whether I was halfway through or five minutes from the end. Still, there are some great parts.
Monday, March 10, 2014
Sunday, March 09, 2014
Martini Experiments
What I've learned thus far:
Ketel One or Belvedere are perfectly good vodkas. Either works great.
Martini Brand Vermouth works well and is reasonably priced.
The olives, thus far, have proven the biggest distinguishing factor.
#1 best olive: Castelvetrano Green Olive. The only problem is the pit. But the olive and brine is amazing.
#2 olive: the very serviceable Manzanilla Star Spanish Olive. I like the size and taste of these olives -- they are small - and tasty. I can eat 4 with a single martini.
#3 olive: the classic Pimento Martini Olive made by Santa Barbara Olive Co. These work fine, but are my least favorite. The size is right, but the flavor, only average.
Way to make it:
The ratio I'm currently working with: 6 parts vodka, 1 part vermouth, 1 part olive brine. It works. I often eyeball and probably use a lesser ratio at times - up to 8 parts vodka. I will continue to fiddle with ratios, maybe not adding olive brine occasionally.
Pour into a martini shaker with lots of ice. Stir or shake - A LOT - the more the merrier.
Now here is the key -- let the martini sit in the shaker for a bit -- get it super, ice cold. Cool the glasses, if convenient.
When you can't resist anymore, pour the martini. I love it super cold and even if a little bit of the ice has melted -- adds to the smoothness -- maybe getting a little chard of ice in there, even better.
For such a simple drink, there are so many variations I want to further try --
The foremost experiment to dabble with gin - either Bombay Sapphire or Tanqueray. Maybe others.
The secondary experiment is to try different Vermouth's. Dolin Vermouth is number 1 on my list to try.
I'd also like to experiment with a "filthy" martini using caper brine rather than olive brine.
What I've learned thus far:
Ketel One or Belvedere are perfectly good vodkas. Either works great.
Martini Brand Vermouth works well and is reasonably priced.
The olives, thus far, have proven the biggest distinguishing factor.
#1 best olive: Castelvetrano Green Olive. The only problem is the pit. But the olive and brine is amazing.
#2 olive: the very serviceable Manzanilla Star Spanish Olive. I like the size and taste of these olives -- they are small - and tasty. I can eat 4 with a single martini.
#3 olive: the classic Pimento Martini Olive made by Santa Barbara Olive Co. These work fine, but are my least favorite. The size is right, but the flavor, only average.
Way to make it:
The ratio I'm currently working with: 6 parts vodka, 1 part vermouth, 1 part olive brine. It works. I often eyeball and probably use a lesser ratio at times - up to 8 parts vodka. I will continue to fiddle with ratios, maybe not adding olive brine occasionally.
Pour into a martini shaker with lots of ice. Stir or shake - A LOT - the more the merrier.
Now here is the key -- let the martini sit in the shaker for a bit -- get it super, ice cold. Cool the glasses, if convenient.
When you can't resist anymore, pour the martini. I love it super cold and even if a little bit of the ice has melted -- adds to the smoothness -- maybe getting a little chard of ice in there, even better.
For such a simple drink, there are so many variations I want to further try --
The foremost experiment to dabble with gin - either Bombay Sapphire or Tanqueray. Maybe others.
The secondary experiment is to try different Vermouth's. Dolin Vermouth is number 1 on my list to try.
I'd also like to experiment with a "filthy" martini using caper brine rather than olive brine.
Thursday, March 06, 2014
A Mistake?
A lot of pundits say Vlad Putin made a huge mistake by sending troops to Ukraine. They say it was a blunder and a demonstration of weakness. The same pundits were saying the same thing about Assad mass-killing his own people in Syria. But here's the thing: these pundits are explaining the situation as if Vlad Putin or Bashar Assad spend their Sunday's brunching and reading the New York Times worrying about what their upper middle class peer group thinks of them. On the contrary, these guys are playing a different game and the stakes for them are life and death. Did you see what happened to Gaddafi when he lost the war? He was dragged through the streets like an animal, anally penetrated by a knife, murdered along with his son and 60-100 of his loyal bodyguards. Don't think Assad didn't see the video and think to himself: that's not happening to me. And wouldn't you be willing to use chemical weapons to avoid the same fate?
I feel like our description of these behaviors as "foolish" is itself a reflection of foolishness. We are saying "gosh, if I were Putin, I wouldn't do this." But that's the whole frigging point. History is full of "foolishness." The entire Confederacy was a foolish mistake. Hitler was foolish. For many, the American Revolution was a foolish gambit. I guess my point is that these guys are playing a game of survival and so long as they are surviving, they are winning. They aren't looking to be Gorbachev's -- heroes in the West -- but no where else.
A lot of pundits say Vlad Putin made a huge mistake by sending troops to Ukraine. They say it was a blunder and a demonstration of weakness. The same pundits were saying the same thing about Assad mass-killing his own people in Syria. But here's the thing: these pundits are explaining the situation as if Vlad Putin or Bashar Assad spend their Sunday's brunching and reading the New York Times worrying about what their upper middle class peer group thinks of them. On the contrary, these guys are playing a different game and the stakes for them are life and death. Did you see what happened to Gaddafi when he lost the war? He was dragged through the streets like an animal, anally penetrated by a knife, murdered along with his son and 60-100 of his loyal bodyguards. Don't think Assad didn't see the video and think to himself: that's not happening to me. And wouldn't you be willing to use chemical weapons to avoid the same fate?
I feel like our description of these behaviors as "foolish" is itself a reflection of foolishness. We are saying "gosh, if I were Putin, I wouldn't do this." But that's the whole frigging point. History is full of "foolishness." The entire Confederacy was a foolish mistake. Hitler was foolish. For many, the American Revolution was a foolish gambit. I guess my point is that these guys are playing a game of survival and so long as they are surviving, they are winning. They aren't looking to be Gorbachev's -- heroes in the West -- but no where else.
Wednesday, March 05, 2014
Logging
Film: Non-Stop
My expectations were high given the good reviews, good box office, and the fact that Liam Neeson bats pretty well in action thrillers. I was disappointed. A few good bits, but overall a pretty forgettable genre exercise. To my mind Taken and The Grey share spots 1A and 1B in the Neeson action ouvre. Apparently Non-Stop and Unknown were the same filmmaker. I didn't see Unknown because it looked really dumb. All said, Non-Stop probably worth the $1.30 redbox and the $6.50 matinee price at the Vista. I was surprised how many people saw a Wed afternoon showing.
Film: Non-Stop
My expectations were high given the good reviews, good box office, and the fact that Liam Neeson bats pretty well in action thrillers. I was disappointed. A few good bits, but overall a pretty forgettable genre exercise. To my mind Taken and The Grey share spots 1A and 1B in the Neeson action ouvre. Apparently Non-Stop and Unknown were the same filmmaker. I didn't see Unknown because it looked really dumb. All said, Non-Stop probably worth the $1.30 redbox and the $6.50 matinee price at the Vista. I was surprised how many people saw a Wed afternoon showing.
Logging
TV: True Detective Ep. 7
Really enjoyed the scenes between Marty and Rust getting back together. Seeing Marty become a good detective (clearly influenced by Rust) and Rust acting kind - great stuff. It reminded me of something I read in a Larry McMurtry book - I'm guessing Streets of Laredo - about Call coming to miss his enemies over time. I always found that idea poignant.
If there is a flaw with the show at this point, I'd have to point to the mystery itself. The internet seems to be exploding with crazy theories which all sound completely ridiculous. I guess one of the drawbacks I'm feeling is that I don't feel a strong emotional need to stop the killer(s). Nor do I expect there to be a holy-fucking-shit "she's my mother, she's my sister" moment. The show is a little light on the thriller aspect of the mystery. The whodunnit is intellectual at this point and a part of my mind is skeptical of the idea of this satanic cult kidnapping young children and performing child sacrifice. For a show that is mostly grounded with some trippy elements, the whole rich-guys-doing-crazy-as-shit is a bit unsatisfying. But who knows, maybe they've got something up their sleeve.
TV: True Detective Ep. 7
Really enjoyed the scenes between Marty and Rust getting back together. Seeing Marty become a good detective (clearly influenced by Rust) and Rust acting kind - great stuff. It reminded me of something I read in a Larry McMurtry book - I'm guessing Streets of Laredo - about Call coming to miss his enemies over time. I always found that idea poignant.
If there is a flaw with the show at this point, I'd have to point to the mystery itself. The internet seems to be exploding with crazy theories which all sound completely ridiculous. I guess one of the drawbacks I'm feeling is that I don't feel a strong emotional need to stop the killer(s). Nor do I expect there to be a holy-fucking-shit "she's my mother, she's my sister" moment. The show is a little light on the thriller aspect of the mystery. The whodunnit is intellectual at this point and a part of my mind is skeptical of the idea of this satanic cult kidnapping young children and performing child sacrifice. For a show that is mostly grounded with some trippy elements, the whole rich-guys-doing-crazy-as-shit is a bit unsatisfying. But who knows, maybe they've got something up their sleeve.
Monday, March 03, 2014
A Thought on Hipsters
I suppose there is some societal benefit to a few adults remaining youthful or even child-like. These adults are often good at acting or coaching sports teams or teaching kindergarten or making music. Society benefits from a few of these kind of people. I am reminded of this when actors give their Oscar speeches - like Jared Leto's incompressible nonsense and the 12 Years A Slave girl talking about following dreams and all that. But society also needs adults. And I imagine we need a lot more adults than overgrown children. We need people to cure disease, do taxes, make laws, build bridges, fight wars, and things like that. But of course, we don't have Oscars for that. No one gets an award for paying rent. No one gets an award for taking care of a sick relative. No one gets an award for adequately saving for retirement.
So, I think when people have issues with hipsters, this is the crux of it. I think adults who work sub-optimal jobs (in terms of their personal enjoyment) in order to make sure they can pay for college for their kids or shelter for their parents who can no longer work, don't have a ton of patience for a culture that looks down on their squareness. Cause ultimately, isn't that really what hipsterism amounts to? Looking down on mainstream culture and replacing it with records and other retro items?
Now that I've written this post, I'm not sure it makes any sense. I'm still posting it because maybe I'll come back to the idea someday.
I suppose there is some societal benefit to a few adults remaining youthful or even child-like. These adults are often good at acting or coaching sports teams or teaching kindergarten or making music. Society benefits from a few of these kind of people. I am reminded of this when actors give their Oscar speeches - like Jared Leto's incompressible nonsense and the 12 Years A Slave girl talking about following dreams and all that. But society also needs adults. And I imagine we need a lot more adults than overgrown children. We need people to cure disease, do taxes, make laws, build bridges, fight wars, and things like that. But of course, we don't have Oscars for that. No one gets an award for paying rent. No one gets an award for taking care of a sick relative. No one gets an award for adequately saving for retirement.
So, I think when people have issues with hipsters, this is the crux of it. I think adults who work sub-optimal jobs (in terms of their personal enjoyment) in order to make sure they can pay for college for their kids or shelter for their parents who can no longer work, don't have a ton of patience for a culture that looks down on their squareness. Cause ultimately, isn't that really what hipsterism amounts to? Looking down on mainstream culture and replacing it with records and other retro items?
Now that I've written this post, I'm not sure it makes any sense. I'm still posting it because maybe I'll come back to the idea someday.
Not Good
Obamacare cuts home health care for millions of seniors.
Yikes. I would file this under "liberal grievances with Obamacare." Speaking from some experience with family medical problems: home healthcare for bad off patients is a lot better (and more efficient) than hospital care. Hospital care is terrible. Hospitals are incredibly conservative and overly administer drugs, fluids, IVs, etc. They are blunt instruments designed to save lives and not do anything drastically wrong. As a result, they are inefficient, soul-crushing, and way too cautious. They often make patients worse in order to ensure the worst-case scenario does not happen. And if you happen to be in the "worst-case scenario," you will be thankful for such care. But 90% of the time, I'm guessing, the worst-case scenario isn't happening and the hospital does too much.
Which brings us to Obamacare cutting home health care for Medicare folks. Sounds incredibly stupid to me. But Obamacare is a blunt, dumb instrument, as are all things operated by the Federal Government.
Obamacare cuts home health care for millions of seniors.
Yikes. I would file this under "liberal grievances with Obamacare." Speaking from some experience with family medical problems: home healthcare for bad off patients is a lot better (and more efficient) than hospital care. Hospital care is terrible. Hospitals are incredibly conservative and overly administer drugs, fluids, IVs, etc. They are blunt instruments designed to save lives and not do anything drastically wrong. As a result, they are inefficient, soul-crushing, and way too cautious. They often make patients worse in order to ensure the worst-case scenario does not happen. And if you happen to be in the "worst-case scenario," you will be thankful for such care. But 90% of the time, I'm guessing, the worst-case scenario isn't happening and the hospital does too much.
Which brings us to Obamacare cutting home health care for Medicare folks. Sounds incredibly stupid to me. But Obamacare is a blunt, dumb instrument, as are all things operated by the Federal Government.
Credibility
How much does it matter in foreign affairs?
I'd say credibility means quite a lot when you're dealing with rational actors. When you're dealing with pieces of shit, it matters less.
How much does it matter in foreign affairs?
I'd say credibility means quite a lot when you're dealing with rational actors. When you're dealing with pieces of shit, it matters less.
Sunday, March 02, 2014
Barnwell, My Least Favorite Sports Writer
"Bridging the analytics gap."
Barnwell goes on the "managers/coaches are stupid for ignoring analytics warpath." He takes the perspective of an idiotic teenage programmer who thinks playing Madden football gives him coaching experience. It strikes me the analytics people, rather than assuming managers and coaches are idiots, might better prove their points by demonstrating how their principles would work better in practice. Now, I'm not saying it is reasonable for Barnwell to become an NFL football coach. But perhaps he might try managing a Little League baseball team or a coaching a high school football team and use his analytical genius to win. If analytics were to provide the "answers" so to speak, it would seem rather simple to dominate against all these heathens using traditional coaching methods.
The analytics people think the coaches ought to see the game from their distanced, mathematical perspective, but the analytics people don't seem willing to get into the trenches and see the game from the sideline. Or try to put their ideas into real-time practice.
Let me talk about one broad example of analytical failure -- in the past two seasons, Barnwell picked 1 team to "regress" from the previous year in the NFL. This is actually a REALLY easy prediction to make. Think about if you were to pick how 1 state would vote in the next presidential election. It would be pretty easy to say California will vote Democrat. See, you don't even need to make a hard prediction, which would be: Do you think the Raiders will improve or decline? Something specific is hard, but when you get to make a broad pick, you get to take the low hanging fruit. So what does Barnwell's analytical genius come up with?
In 2012, the 2011 13-3 Niners, NFC Championship game losers will regress. What happened? The Niners were 12-4-1 and went to the Super Bowl. Even Barnwell admits he was wrong, but cites the Kaepernick factor as unpredictable. Unpredictable? Guess what, dude? You are making a FUCKING PREDICTION. Everything is goddamn unpredictable. It was unpredictable that Russia was going to invade the Ukraine. It was unpredictable the Colts would come back from 28 points down to beat the Chiefs in the playoffs. How can one make a prediction and when the prediction turns out wrong, cite an unpredictable factor. Pure foolishness.
Next year Barnwell picks the 2013 Colts to regress from 11-5 and losing in the Wild Card round. What happens? The Colts go 11-5 and lose in the Divisional Round.
Now, I'm no genius, and didn't have the advantage of all these advanced stats, but it strikes me that both these predictions were completely and utter foolish because Barnwell didn't understand why the 2012 Colts went 11-5 or why the 2011 Niners went 13-3. He looked at history when teams had rapid swings in W-L from the prior year and argued they regressed back to the mean the following year. The factors he decided to ignore were Jim Harbaugh and Andrew Luck. The Niners went 13-3 because Harbaugh turned the team around. That didn't change the following year. The Colts were good because they got an excellent young quarterback. That didn't change either. That's why neither team regressed.
Here was a much easier prediction and one I would have made: the Super Bowl winning Ravens would regress. First of all, it would be incredibly hard to repeat and you just set yourself up for success by making such an easy prediction. But further, they overpaid Joe Flacco, lost Anquan Boldin and Ray Lewis. Simple. But you can know this simply by watching the games. No need for advanced stats.
"Bridging the analytics gap."
Barnwell goes on the "managers/coaches are stupid for ignoring analytics warpath." He takes the perspective of an idiotic teenage programmer who thinks playing Madden football gives him coaching experience. It strikes me the analytics people, rather than assuming managers and coaches are idiots, might better prove their points by demonstrating how their principles would work better in practice. Now, I'm not saying it is reasonable for Barnwell to become an NFL football coach. But perhaps he might try managing a Little League baseball team or a coaching a high school football team and use his analytical genius to win. If analytics were to provide the "answers" so to speak, it would seem rather simple to dominate against all these heathens using traditional coaching methods.
The analytics people think the coaches ought to see the game from their distanced, mathematical perspective, but the analytics people don't seem willing to get into the trenches and see the game from the sideline. Or try to put their ideas into real-time practice.
Let me talk about one broad example of analytical failure -- in the past two seasons, Barnwell picked 1 team to "regress" from the previous year in the NFL. This is actually a REALLY easy prediction to make. Think about if you were to pick how 1 state would vote in the next presidential election. It would be pretty easy to say California will vote Democrat. See, you don't even need to make a hard prediction, which would be: Do you think the Raiders will improve or decline? Something specific is hard, but when you get to make a broad pick, you get to take the low hanging fruit. So what does Barnwell's analytical genius come up with?
In 2012, the 2011 13-3 Niners, NFC Championship game losers will regress. What happened? The Niners were 12-4-1 and went to the Super Bowl. Even Barnwell admits he was wrong, but cites the Kaepernick factor as unpredictable. Unpredictable? Guess what, dude? You are making a FUCKING PREDICTION. Everything is goddamn unpredictable. It was unpredictable that Russia was going to invade the Ukraine. It was unpredictable the Colts would come back from 28 points down to beat the Chiefs in the playoffs. How can one make a prediction and when the prediction turns out wrong, cite an unpredictable factor. Pure foolishness.
Next year Barnwell picks the 2013 Colts to regress from 11-5 and losing in the Wild Card round. What happens? The Colts go 11-5 and lose in the Divisional Round.
Now, I'm no genius, and didn't have the advantage of all these advanced stats, but it strikes me that both these predictions were completely and utter foolish because Barnwell didn't understand why the 2012 Colts went 11-5 or why the 2011 Niners went 13-3. He looked at history when teams had rapid swings in W-L from the prior year and argued they regressed back to the mean the following year. The factors he decided to ignore were Jim Harbaugh and Andrew Luck. The Niners went 13-3 because Harbaugh turned the team around. That didn't change the following year. The Colts were good because they got an excellent young quarterback. That didn't change either. That's why neither team regressed.
Here was a much easier prediction and one I would have made: the Super Bowl winning Ravens would regress. First of all, it would be incredibly hard to repeat and you just set yourself up for success by making such an easy prediction. But further, they overpaid Joe Flacco, lost Anquan Boldin and Ray Lewis. Simple. But you can know this simply by watching the games. No need for advanced stats.
Opps
Russian invades Ukraine. Do the Ukrainians regret giving up their nukes now? What does this spell for US security guarantees? How do we convince Japan, Israel, and Taiwan to stay non-nuclear?
Is this what Obama meant by smart diplomacy? And a global "re-set?" Is this legally different from Iraq invading Kuwait?
And what are Girls-watching, yoga-doing, beard-growing, partially-employed Americans willing to do about this? The answer is obvious and Putin knows it: nothing. And the Chinese are watching.
Russian invades Ukraine. Do the Ukrainians regret giving up their nukes now? What does this spell for US security guarantees? How do we convince Japan, Israel, and Taiwan to stay non-nuclear?
Is this what Obama meant by smart diplomacy? And a global "re-set?" Is this legally different from Iraq invading Kuwait?
And what are Girls-watching, yoga-doing, beard-growing, partially-employed Americans willing to do about this? The answer is obvious and Putin knows it: nothing. And the Chinese are watching.
Saturday, March 01, 2014
Why Can't Something Just Be Good?
There's something about our times...everything is so hyperbolic. Exaggerated. I feel like no reads history. Emily Nussbaum calls True Detective macho bullshit and she worries she's a scold. Here's the thing: I know what she's reacting to. She's reacting to this notion that the show is "so deep" and "so awesome" and the "best thing ever." The show is good. I enjoy watching it. I'm glad it's 8 episodes and we're going to get an end to the mystery. Top of the Lake is a good comparison. I wouldn't put one over the other if we were ranking them. But why is it so important to rank them? True Detective is fun to watch in the context of other procedurals: Zodiac, Memories of Murder, Top of the Lake, Broadchurch, Hannibal, The Onion Field, Peeping Tom, even. All of these films/shows have something to say for themselves. But TD is getting the nerd-obsessive folks that usually reserve their love for either comic book bullshit, PTA films, or JJ Abrams stuff (different nerds/obsessives for each, but they all share the same enthusiasm.)
There's something about our times...everything is so hyperbolic. Exaggerated. I feel like no reads history. Emily Nussbaum calls True Detective macho bullshit and she worries she's a scold. Here's the thing: I know what she's reacting to. She's reacting to this notion that the show is "so deep" and "so awesome" and the "best thing ever." The show is good. I enjoy watching it. I'm glad it's 8 episodes and we're going to get an end to the mystery. Top of the Lake is a good comparison. I wouldn't put one over the other if we were ranking them. But why is it so important to rank them? True Detective is fun to watch in the context of other procedurals: Zodiac, Memories of Murder, Top of the Lake, Broadchurch, Hannibal, The Onion Field, Peeping Tom, even. All of these films/shows have something to say for themselves. But TD is getting the nerd-obsessive folks that usually reserve their love for either comic book bullshit, PTA films, or JJ Abrams stuff (different nerds/obsessives for each, but they all share the same enthusiasm.)
Thursday, February 27, 2014
Podcast
Rather enjoyed this podcast "The Moment" with host Brian Koppelman and Chuck Klosterman.
My favorite part was Klosterman talking about his biggest fear being unable to see something completely obvious about himself that everyone else knows, but he doesn't. Funny insight.
Rather enjoyed this podcast "The Moment" with host Brian Koppelman and Chuck Klosterman.
My favorite part was Klosterman talking about his biggest fear being unable to see something completely obvious about himself that everyone else knows, but he doesn't. Funny insight.
Wednesday, February 26, 2014
Something Happening Here
Woman in SF bar attacked for wearing Google glasses. For those who don't pay attention to what's happening locally in San Francisco, there's been rising tension over the past year or so about the status of tech workers in the city. The big thing earlier this year was Google buses, which transport Google workers from the city SF to the Silicon Valley for work. They use Muni stops and disgruntled San Franciscans started protesting the buses. There were other issues of grievance - the city basically paying twitter to keep their offices on Market Street, some recent graffiti on Atherton houses targeting the 1% and now, some thugs grabbing a woman's google glasses and stealing her purse.
The big factor underpinning this "movement" if you can call it that, is rising rents. Anecdotally, rents are absurdly high in SF. I have a buddy renting a 2bd 2bath in Western Addition, which is hardly a tony neighborhood, for $3600 a month. Another friend claims he could rent his Mission 1 bedroom with a parking space and deck for over $3000 as well. Some "joe average" San Franciscans are pissed and blame the tech workers. This is silly, of course. The tech workers themselves are not to blame. And fundamentally, the issue is simple: envy.
What's happening here is an exaggeration of other trends in the economy. The wealth is not being spread around. The top 10-15% are benefitting and others feel themselves falling behind. This is emotional.
Solutions? Who knows. What's ironic is the situation is pure liberal vs. liberal tension. Maybe the solution is getting rid of rent control. And re-signing Jim Harbaugh (which is the other big issue of the moment.)
Woman in SF bar attacked for wearing Google glasses. For those who don't pay attention to what's happening locally in San Francisco, there's been rising tension over the past year or so about the status of tech workers in the city. The big thing earlier this year was Google buses, which transport Google workers from the city SF to the Silicon Valley for work. They use Muni stops and disgruntled San Franciscans started protesting the buses. There were other issues of grievance - the city basically paying twitter to keep their offices on Market Street, some recent graffiti on Atherton houses targeting the 1% and now, some thugs grabbing a woman's google glasses and stealing her purse.
The big factor underpinning this "movement" if you can call it that, is rising rents. Anecdotally, rents are absurdly high in SF. I have a buddy renting a 2bd 2bath in Western Addition, which is hardly a tony neighborhood, for $3600 a month. Another friend claims he could rent his Mission 1 bedroom with a parking space and deck for over $3000 as well. Some "joe average" San Franciscans are pissed and blame the tech workers. This is silly, of course. The tech workers themselves are not to blame. And fundamentally, the issue is simple: envy.
What's happening here is an exaggeration of other trends in the economy. The wealth is not being spread around. The top 10-15% are benefitting and others feel themselves falling behind. This is emotional.
Solutions? Who knows. What's ironic is the situation is pure liberal vs. liberal tension. Maybe the solution is getting rid of rent control. And re-signing Jim Harbaugh (which is the other big issue of the moment.)
Monday, February 24, 2014
Drinking
Indeed, we still have available the list of beverages served at a 1787 farewell party in Philadelphia for George Washington just days before the framers signed off on the Constitution. According to the bill preserved from the evening, the 55 attendees drank 54 bottles of Madeira, 60 bottles of claret, eight of whiskey, 22 of porter, eight of hard cider, 12 of beer, and seven bowls of alcoholic punch.
That’s more than two bottles of fruit of the vine, plus a number of shots and a lot of punch and beer, for every delegate. That seems humanly impossible to modern Americans. But, you see, across the country during the Colonial era, the average American consumed many times as much beverage alcohol as contemporary Americans do. Getting drunk—but not losing control—was simply socially accepted.From an Instapundit link.
Yikes
From LBN:
From LBN:
It may be one of the best years in recent memory for high-quality Hollywood film, but two-thirds of Americans have yet to see any of the movies nominated for the best picture Oscar, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll released on Sunday. Among other questions, the poll asked 1,433 Americans whether they had seen any of the nine best-picture nominees, plus two other films competing in other categories. The Academy Awards will be hosted by comedian Ellen DeGeneres on March 2.All the media keep saying it's been a great year for movies. I've yet to notice and apparently, so have 2/3 of all Americans. Has our movie culture died?
Sunday, February 23, 2014
Food and Drink of the Gods
Pre-dinner vodka martini: Ketel One, splash of vermouth, olive brine from Castelvetrano olives. Ice. Shake. Pour. 2-3 olives.
Boiling Crab take home feast - snow crab, shrimp, potatoes, corn, sausage, clams. Medium spicy. Damn. Shrimp was the least awesome of all the food and the shrimp is fucking great.
Pre-dinner vodka martini: Ketel One, splash of vermouth, olive brine from Castelvetrano olives. Ice. Shake. Pour. 2-3 olives.
Boiling Crab take home feast - snow crab, shrimp, potatoes, corn, sausage, clams. Medium spicy. Damn. Shrimp was the least awesome of all the food and the shrimp is fucking great.
Lena Dunham on Bill Simmons
An interesting test for me. I enjoy listening to almost every Simmons podcast and I can't stand Lena Dunham, so I gave it a try. I lasted about 3 minutes and had to turn it off. I realized it might just have to do with the sound and cadence of her voice. I get a physical reaction to it, like the sound of crunching styrofoam. Some people hate nails on a chalkboard, but the sound never really bugged me. Really just crunching styrofoam and Lena Dunham's voice.
An interesting test for me. I enjoy listening to almost every Simmons podcast and I can't stand Lena Dunham, so I gave it a try. I lasted about 3 minutes and had to turn it off. I realized it might just have to do with the sound and cadence of her voice. I get a physical reaction to it, like the sound of crunching styrofoam. Some people hate nails on a chalkboard, but the sound never really bugged me. Really just crunching styrofoam and Lena Dunham's voice.
Late To The Game
But I finally started listening to Marc Maron WTF and watching the show. I'm into it. Reminds me a bit of Howard Stern without the whack pack. The Freudian unpacking schtick is familiar and does not embark on any new ground, but it works. If you looked closely at most popular American shows or movies, my gut is they would be the descendent of Freud, Shakespeare, the Greeks, or Nietzsche. I'll have to think about this more.
But I finally started listening to Marc Maron WTF and watching the show. I'm into it. Reminds me a bit of Howard Stern without the whack pack. The Freudian unpacking schtick is familiar and does not embark on any new ground, but it works. If you looked closely at most popular American shows or movies, my gut is they would be the descendent of Freud, Shakespeare, the Greeks, or Nietzsche. I'll have to think about this more.
Really, The Atlantic?
What happened to those great David Samuels pieces of long form journalism? Here is one called "The Dark Power of Fraternities." I stopped reading halfway through because the article is about, get this, drunk kids falling. I'm not kidding. Try not to laugh. The Atlantic's cover story is about drunk college kids falling out of windows and off decks.
How the mighty have fallen. I hardly go to the website anymore. What happened to this once great publication?
What happened to those great David Samuels pieces of long form journalism? Here is one called "The Dark Power of Fraternities." I stopped reading halfway through because the article is about, get this, drunk kids falling. I'm not kidding. Try not to laugh. The Atlantic's cover story is about drunk college kids falling out of windows and off decks.
How the mighty have fallen. I hardly go to the website anymore. What happened to this once great publication?
Saturday, February 22, 2014
Logging
Film: The Great Beauty
A terrific Italian movie about...everything...life...Rome. I suppose it was really about Rome. One day, I hope someone makes a film about Los Angeles in this way. Who could do it? Tarantino?
Film: The Hunt
I was rather disappointed by this film. I love Mads Mikkelsen. Am a big fan of Vinterberg. But the situation and writing seemed a bit absurd to me. They went to such great lengths to establish his innocence and yet every adult in the film so easily turns on him, even after the police dismiss the case. If you watch a play like The Crucible, you feel the heat of injustice, but in in this particular film, I felt frustrated with the basic manipulation of character behavior by the filmmakers. Reading about the Woody Allen case is more interesting and nuanced.
Yesterday was a foreign language Oscar nominees day!
Film: The Great Beauty
A terrific Italian movie about...everything...life...Rome. I suppose it was really about Rome. One day, I hope someone makes a film about Los Angeles in this way. Who could do it? Tarantino?
Film: The Hunt
I was rather disappointed by this film. I love Mads Mikkelsen. Am a big fan of Vinterberg. But the situation and writing seemed a bit absurd to me. They went to such great lengths to establish his innocence and yet every adult in the film so easily turns on him, even after the police dismiss the case. If you watch a play like The Crucible, you feel the heat of injustice, but in in this particular film, I felt frustrated with the basic manipulation of character behavior by the filmmakers. Reading about the Woody Allen case is more interesting and nuanced.
Yesterday was a foreign language Oscar nominees day!
Friday, February 21, 2014
Dignity
Peggy Noonan criticizes politicians for being in House of Cards. I couldn't get into the show.
Peggy Noonan criticizes politicians for being in House of Cards. I couldn't get into the show.
I don’t understand why members of Congress, the White House and the media become cooperators in videos that sort of show that deep down they all see themselves as . . . actors.Agreed. PS - this is why I didn't want to do a "wedding video." I didn't want the day to be a performance.
Thursday, February 20, 2014
Renting Cheaper Than Buying
In LA and a few other places.
In LA and a few other places.
Real estate experts say the high costs, without corresponding income growth, have depressed sales.
“The cost of financed homeownership is becoming dangerously disconnected with still-stagnant median incomes,” RealtyTrac Vice President Daren Blomquist said in a statement.I've been noting this for awhile. I still don't see why we didn't just let the bottom fall out of the housing market. I imagine a lot of decent folks could have gotten a great deal on a first home and become the building block of a nice community. Instead, the politicians decided to favor anyone who got themselves in over their heads. I guess they didn't want breadlines, so they just snatched money from savers and handed it to the borrowers.
Monday, February 17, 2014
Logging
TV: True Detective, Ep. 5
I continue to enjoy True Detective, but there's this lingering 10-25% of my mind that remains suspicious of the show -- like I'm being sold a fake painting or something. I don't know why. Maybe it's the prestige and the HBO-ness, or the internet re-caps proclaiming brilliance and "best-show-on-television." Or maybe it's Cohle digressing about "membrane" theory and the 4th dimension, the type of discussion one might overhear brainy 16-year-olds having instead of working up the courage to talk to girls. (spoken from experience)
That said, I really look forward to watching the show. I found the last couple of episodes quite creepy and enjoyed the time jump to 2002. Thought the mystery beats hit really well, especially the quick reveal LaDoux might not be the killer. Don't really care for this notion that Cohle is being investigated. It sounds clever on paper, but I don't think the audience buys for a moment that Cohle could be behind the killings. It wouldn't make any sense.
On a side note, I somewhat enjoy reading recaps and listening to people talk about this show. And in that way, True Detective is a great show for this era of twitter, blogs, and the need to be talking about something online.
Random notes on this commentary:
1. Is it just me or is the biggest cliche any can say about a mystery genre is "the show isn't really about the mystery, it's about the characters?" Cue ohhs and ahhhs from freshman literature students. If I have to read this once more as if it were insight, I'm going to vomit. I don't see why critics who write about these shows are so dismissive about the "whodunnit" aspect. First of all, mysteries are never just whodunnit -- they are whydunnit. That's why we enjoy mysteries. It is also why most mysteries fail and why most mysteries about "characters" end up being deeply disappointing in the end (see any adaptation of a Dennis Lehane book).
The move for mysteries that works pretty well is disguising a 2nd mystery within the primary mystery. The classic case being Chinatown with the incest storyline intertwined with the murder storyline. Same with Lonestar (again, an incest storyline). And with Top of the Lake (again, incest). Actually, maybe the lesson is just to introduce an incest plot.
2. Fanboys are annoying no matter what the subject. See this.
TV: True Detective, Ep. 5
I continue to enjoy True Detective, but there's this lingering 10-25% of my mind that remains suspicious of the show -- like I'm being sold a fake painting or something. I don't know why. Maybe it's the prestige and the HBO-ness, or the internet re-caps proclaiming brilliance and "best-show-on-television." Or maybe it's Cohle digressing about "membrane" theory and the 4th dimension, the type of discussion one might overhear brainy 16-year-olds having instead of working up the courage to talk to girls. (spoken from experience)
That said, I really look forward to watching the show. I found the last couple of episodes quite creepy and enjoyed the time jump to 2002. Thought the mystery beats hit really well, especially the quick reveal LaDoux might not be the killer. Don't really care for this notion that Cohle is being investigated. It sounds clever on paper, but I don't think the audience buys for a moment that Cohle could be behind the killings. It wouldn't make any sense.
On a side note, I somewhat enjoy reading recaps and listening to people talk about this show. And in that way, True Detective is a great show for this era of twitter, blogs, and the need to be talking about something online.
Random notes on this commentary:
1. Is it just me or is the biggest cliche any can say about a mystery genre is "the show isn't really about the mystery, it's about the characters?" Cue ohhs and ahhhs from freshman literature students. If I have to read this once more as if it were insight, I'm going to vomit. I don't see why critics who write about these shows are so dismissive about the "whodunnit" aspect. First of all, mysteries are never just whodunnit -- they are whydunnit. That's why we enjoy mysteries. It is also why most mysteries fail and why most mysteries about "characters" end up being deeply disappointing in the end (see any adaptation of a Dennis Lehane book).
The move for mysteries that works pretty well is disguising a 2nd mystery within the primary mystery. The classic case being Chinatown with the incest storyline intertwined with the murder storyline. Same with Lonestar (again, an incest storyline). And with Top of the Lake (again, incest). Actually, maybe the lesson is just to introduce an incest plot.
2. Fanboys are annoying no matter what the subject. See this.
Or is he a character in a TV show railing against his audience? Aren't we the creatures of that higher dimension? The creatures who can see the totality of his world? After all, we get to see all eight episodes of his life. On a flat screen. And we can watch him live that same life over and over again, the exact same way."
The thought was dizzying. Sure, True Detective is a page-turning crime yarn. But at least according to its creator, it's also a meta-page-turning crime yarn—a story about storytelling. Pizzolatto had transformed m-theory into a metaphor for television—and television, perhaps, into a metaphor for existence itself.Que? Am I the only one overhearing the squeaky sounds of someone jerking themselves off with lube? Metafiction? What are we even talking about? Who isn't aware they're watching a tv show? Or making a tv show? I feel like if you get a boner for metafiction, the genre you really want to explore is the sitcom with a live audience. But a story about storytelling. Huh? Aren't all stories about storytelling? I dunno. I'm staring to bore myself to death thinking about it.
Saturday, February 15, 2014
Logging
Films:
20 Feet From Stardom
This was a wife pick, but I thoroughly enjoyed the film. The best parts of the movie happen early, but the music was awesome. Definitely a rock-doc. Well worth the free guild member entrance.
Bad Grandpa
I certainly laughed. Every now and again these Borat-Jackass style prank movies are a fun diversion. Worth the $1.30 redbox.
Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit
A serviceable action film, but missing a good twist. I was the only person in the theater at 11:20am showing at the Arclight.
The Grey
Re-watch on Netflix. Holds up. Damn good movie.
Play:
Death of a Salesman
So sad.
Films:
20 Feet From Stardom
This was a wife pick, but I thoroughly enjoyed the film. The best parts of the movie happen early, but the music was awesome. Definitely a rock-doc. Well worth the free guild member entrance.
Bad Grandpa
I certainly laughed. Every now and again these Borat-Jackass style prank movies are a fun diversion. Worth the $1.30 redbox.
Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit
A serviceable action film, but missing a good twist. I was the only person in the theater at 11:20am showing at the Arclight.
The Grey
Re-watch on Netflix. Holds up. Damn good movie.
Play:
Death of a Salesman
So sad.
Thursday, February 13, 2014
Nash
A nice documentary called "The Finish Line," about Steve Nash.
What does he expect will happen? Even in the best case scenario, Nash gets to 100% for 1.5 more years and the Lakers still won't be going anywhere in the playoffs. I think for him, just playing is the reward and I for one, would like to see it.
A nice documentary called "The Finish Line," about Steve Nash.
What does he expect will happen? Even in the best case scenario, Nash gets to 100% for 1.5 more years and the Lakers still won't be going anywhere in the playoffs. I think for him, just playing is the reward and I for one, would like to see it.
Monday, February 10, 2014
Best Documentary Short Ever
A great filmmaker figured out the 49er-Seatle game was rigged.
Incontrovertible evidence.
A great filmmaker figured out the 49er-Seatle game was rigged.
Incontrovertible evidence.
Saturday, February 08, 2014
Woody Allen Speaks Out
He lays out a convincing argument his step-daughter/daughter who the hell knows is deluded and making the whole thing up.
The crime is that he needs to defend himself.
He lays out a convincing argument his step-daughter/daughter who the hell knows is deluded and making the whole thing up.
The crime is that he needs to defend himself.
Tuesday, February 04, 2014
Logging
Film: Inside Llewyn Davis
Even sadder on the 2nd watch. I feel strong, melancholy emotions watching this film. I'm not sure whether that's a good thing.
I'm reading East of Eden and Steinbeck refers to Weltschmerz as "the world sadness that rises into the soul like a gas and spreads despair so that you probe for the offending event and can find none."
Today, we'd just call it depression. In any case, I get a strong feeling of Weltschmerz watching Inside Llewyn Davis.
Film: Inside Llewyn Davis
Even sadder on the 2nd watch. I feel strong, melancholy emotions watching this film. I'm not sure whether that's a good thing.
I'm reading East of Eden and Steinbeck refers to Weltschmerz as "the world sadness that rises into the soul like a gas and spreads despair so that you probe for the offending event and can find none."
Today, we'd just call it depression. In any case, I get a strong feeling of Weltschmerz watching Inside Llewyn Davis.
Monday, February 03, 2014
Phillip Seymour Hoffman
My mom asked me whether he was married. I didn't know. My mind suddenly thought: wait, is Phillip Seymour Hoffman gay? I was of course thinking of Boogie Nights and one of the most awkwardly painful, cringe-worthy, scenes I've ever seen when PSH shows Mark Wahlberg his new car.
"I'm an idiot. I'm a fucking idiot....I'm a fucking idiot...fucking idiot...fucking idiot..."
So I looked it up. He had a partner. 3 kids. So I realized: the guy was THAT good...that my memory of his performance in a single scene caused me to question his sexual identity in real life. Michael Douglas, Heath Ledger, Tom Hanks, Al Pacino, all these guys have played gay in movies and never once did it transcend acting. PSH did it in one frigging scene.
I like to remember movie people by three movies...Hoffman was an actor, not a movie star, not a producer, not a creative force behind his projects. Here's my memory of him:
Dicky Greenleaf in the Talented Mr. Ripley
Scottie in Boogie Nights
Gust Avrakotos in Charlie Wilson's War
My mom asked me whether he was married. I didn't know. My mind suddenly thought: wait, is Phillip Seymour Hoffman gay? I was of course thinking of Boogie Nights and one of the most awkwardly painful, cringe-worthy, scenes I've ever seen when PSH shows Mark Wahlberg his new car.
"I'm an idiot. I'm a fucking idiot....I'm a fucking idiot...fucking idiot...fucking idiot..."
So I looked it up. He had a partner. 3 kids. So I realized: the guy was THAT good...that my memory of his performance in a single scene caused me to question his sexual identity in real life. Michael Douglas, Heath Ledger, Tom Hanks, Al Pacino, all these guys have played gay in movies and never once did it transcend acting. PSH did it in one frigging scene.
I like to remember movie people by three movies...Hoffman was an actor, not a movie star, not a producer, not a creative force behind his projects. Here's my memory of him:
Dicky Greenleaf in the Talented Mr. Ripley
Scottie in Boogie Nights
Gust Avrakotos in Charlie Wilson's War
Sunday, February 02, 2014
I'm In This Camp As Well
Climate change is a problem, but there is very little that can be done about it.
I was recently in Taiwan and Hong Kong and there are too many people and too much pollution. These places are unruly and unnatural, and yet, what can be done? Nothing, as far as I can tell.
Climate change is a problem, but there is very little that can be done about it.
I was recently in Taiwan and Hong Kong and there are too many people and too much pollution. These places are unruly and unnatural, and yet, what can be done? Nothing, as far as I can tell.
Saturday, February 01, 2014
Something To Consider...
...in the Kaepernick contract negotiations: only Andy Dalton had worse stats during the playoffs.
...in the Kaepernick contract negotiations: only Andy Dalton had worse stats during the playoffs.
Friday, January 31, 2014
Unintended Consequences
Assortive mating leads to income inequality.
In America today, women in the marriage-able range have the same economic opportunities as men. I know this anecdotally and by experience. (note: perhaps some hangover from earlier generations still skews the stats and having children puts a damper on career-advancement, but unless men start having babies anytime soon, I do not see an alternative)
The effect on marriage: assortive mating, ie successful men and women marrying one another. The unintended consequence of assortive mating: increased economic inequality.
Who would have thought rising economic opportunities for women would cause income inequality -- but that's what the data is saying.
Choices, choices.
Assortive mating leads to income inequality.
In America today, women in the marriage-able range have the same economic opportunities as men. I know this anecdotally and by experience. (note: perhaps some hangover from earlier generations still skews the stats and having children puts a damper on career-advancement, but unless men start having babies anytime soon, I do not see an alternative)
The effect on marriage: assortive mating, ie successful men and women marrying one another. The unintended consequence of assortive mating: increased economic inequality.
Who would have thought rising economic opportunities for women would cause income inequality -- but that's what the data is saying.
Choices, choices.
My Super Bowl Prediction
The game will come down to game-plan and coaching. I believe the Seahawks are a better all-around team, and would win 6-7 out of 10 games given the injury condition of Denver. But in a single-game setting, elements of surprise and misdirection will be the deciding factor.
For instance, last year, the Ravens came in with a defensive game plan to stop the read-option by hitting Kaepernick no matter whether he kept the ball or not. I think this won the game for them. It helped that Joe Flacco played out of his mind and they returned a kick off for a TD, but the Ravens were an inferior team talent-wise to the Niners and came in with a better game plan.
The Saints beat the Colts the same way several years ago by limiting Peyton's drives via ball control and the aggressive onside kick play (which fit into this plan).
So the question comes down to: Denver offense vs. Seattle defense. Will Denver run some interesting plays to chew up yards and wear down the Seattle defense? Or will Seattle get up on Denver receivers and make the short passing game impossible?
Pete Carroll vs. John Fox? I'd give a SLIGHT edge to Fox. Carroll is underrated as a tactician, but Fox has been here before.
Manning vs. Wilson. I'd give a slight edge to Peyton. Wilson is also underrated for his brains, but Peyton is Peyton.
So, I'm picking Denver and the points, even though this is probably just as much emotional as rational.
The game will come down to game-plan and coaching. I believe the Seahawks are a better all-around team, and would win 6-7 out of 10 games given the injury condition of Denver. But in a single-game setting, elements of surprise and misdirection will be the deciding factor.
For instance, last year, the Ravens came in with a defensive game plan to stop the read-option by hitting Kaepernick no matter whether he kept the ball or not. I think this won the game for them. It helped that Joe Flacco played out of his mind and they returned a kick off for a TD, but the Ravens were an inferior team talent-wise to the Niners and came in with a better game plan.
The Saints beat the Colts the same way several years ago by limiting Peyton's drives via ball control and the aggressive onside kick play (which fit into this plan).
So the question comes down to: Denver offense vs. Seattle defense. Will Denver run some interesting plays to chew up yards and wear down the Seattle defense? Or will Seattle get up on Denver receivers and make the short passing game impossible?
Pete Carroll vs. John Fox? I'd give a SLIGHT edge to Fox. Carroll is underrated as a tactician, but Fox has been here before.
Manning vs. Wilson. I'd give a slight edge to Peyton. Wilson is also underrated for his brains, but Peyton is Peyton.
So, I'm picking Denver and the points, even though this is probably just as much emotional as rational.
Thursday, January 30, 2014
Logging
Reading: East of Eden
I love this book. Rather than try to express why, I'll just let Mr. Steinbeck do the talking:
"Mr. Edwards carried on his business of whoremaster in an orderly and unemotional way. He maintained his wife and his two well-mannered children in a good house in a good neighborhood in Boston. The children, two boys, were entered on the books at Groton when they were infants."
Reading: East of Eden
I love this book. Rather than try to express why, I'll just let Mr. Steinbeck do the talking:
"Mr. Edwards carried on his business of whoremaster in an orderly and unemotional way. He maintained his wife and his two well-mannered children in a good house in a good neighborhood in Boston. The children, two boys, were entered on the books at Groton when they were infants."
Wednesday, January 29, 2014
I Love This
Map of India by population. It could fit Egypt, Thailand, Italy, Turkey, Cuba, Venezuela, Hong Kong, Macau, Mexico, Ghana, Turkey, Argentina, Iraq, Vietnam, Brazil, the Philippines, Canada, and several other modestly sized countries inside it.
Map of India by population. It could fit Egypt, Thailand, Italy, Turkey, Cuba, Venezuela, Hong Kong, Macau, Mexico, Ghana, Turkey, Argentina, Iraq, Vietnam, Brazil, the Philippines, Canada, and several other modestly sized countries inside it.
Doing As Little As Possible
In praise of passivity (in government).
I'd vote for a candidate who got up there and said "look, my only goal is to make life more simple for more people. Easier to pay taxes. Easier to get a job. Easier to see a doctor." A slogan of "easy" rather than "hope." What a crock of shit that turned out to be.
In praise of passivity (in government).
I'd vote for a candidate who got up there and said "look, my only goal is to make life more simple for more people. Easier to pay taxes. Easier to get a job. Easier to see a doctor." A slogan of "easy" rather than "hope." What a crock of shit that turned out to be.
Tuesday, January 28, 2014
Bad Decision Maker or a Fool and Is There A Difference?
In-depth analysis of Kaepernick's throw to Crabtree at the end of the game.
Everyone agrees it was a bad throw - not just because of the result, but because of the decision. Kaepernick basically thinks Crabtree vs. Sherman favors Crabtree. He is wrong. What irritates me, is that he sticks by his decision, which also makes him foolish.
Quarterback is a highly complicated position that requires quick thinking and good decision-making. The game audio has been released and on the big 4 and 7 play when the Niners jumped offside, giving Seattle a free play and they scored a touchdown, Wilson KNEW he could get the Niners to jump and said as much to Carroll on the sideline. That was the most important play Wilson made in the game. On Kaepernick's most important play of the game, he blindly tosses the ball into a mismatch when he had another receiver wide open. That's why Seattle is going to the Super Bowl and we are not.
Kaepernick is a great athlete, but I don't think he can read the defense or make consistently good decisions. I would not pay him top-dollar and bankrupt my team. He will not make the other players better and he is not a franchise quarterback. Manning, Brady, Brees, Rodgers, Wilson, Luck, all these guys have super bright heads on their shoulders in addition to the physical skills of being a quarterback. Kaepernick's legs and strength are more dynamic than any of these guys. And he is a competitor. But the most important feature of being a QB: the decision-making is missing. I still think the Niners should have stuck with Alex Smith.
In-depth analysis of Kaepernick's throw to Crabtree at the end of the game.
Everyone agrees it was a bad throw - not just because of the result, but because of the decision. Kaepernick basically thinks Crabtree vs. Sherman favors Crabtree. He is wrong. What irritates me, is that he sticks by his decision, which also makes him foolish.
Quarterback is a highly complicated position that requires quick thinking and good decision-making. The game audio has been released and on the big 4 and 7 play when the Niners jumped offside, giving Seattle a free play and they scored a touchdown, Wilson KNEW he could get the Niners to jump and said as much to Carroll on the sideline. That was the most important play Wilson made in the game. On Kaepernick's most important play of the game, he blindly tosses the ball into a mismatch when he had another receiver wide open. That's why Seattle is going to the Super Bowl and we are not.
Kaepernick is a great athlete, but I don't think he can read the defense or make consistently good decisions. I would not pay him top-dollar and bankrupt my team. He will not make the other players better and he is not a franchise quarterback. Manning, Brady, Brees, Rodgers, Wilson, Luck, all these guys have super bright heads on their shoulders in addition to the physical skills of being a quarterback. Kaepernick's legs and strength are more dynamic than any of these guys. And he is a competitor. But the most important feature of being a QB: the decision-making is missing. I still think the Niners should have stuck with Alex Smith.
Monday, January 27, 2014
Vlad Putin and the Chinese Commies Are Licking Their Chops
I don't watch Girls, but I am entertained by round-table recaps about how horrible the people are.
If I'm Vlad Putin or the Communist Chinese, I'm just licking my chops at American decline. They don't need to do a thing, just let this generation of people grow up. They'll piss away the centuries long experiment of America, spend every cent of savings, indebt any future generation if they can even manage to have children, make negative scientific process, piss off every ally around the world, and just generally ensure our immiseration.
This is HBO, our premium cable channel, for the "elite" customers. Per the article, I actually think Taylor Swift gets it right "casual cruelty under the guise of truth-telling." Maybe there is hope for the future.
I don't watch Girls, but I am entertained by round-table recaps about how horrible the people are.
If I'm Vlad Putin or the Communist Chinese, I'm just licking my chops at American decline. They don't need to do a thing, just let this generation of people grow up. They'll piss away the centuries long experiment of America, spend every cent of savings, indebt any future generation if they can even manage to have children, make negative scientific process, piss off every ally around the world, and just generally ensure our immiseration.
This is HBO, our premium cable channel, for the "elite" customers. Per the article, I actually think Taylor Swift gets it right "casual cruelty under the guise of truth-telling." Maybe there is hope for the future.
Sunday, January 26, 2014
Bankrupt on $375,000 a Year
The whole story here is paying 10G in alimony per month. 10Gs! How can anyone be liable for that kind of dough? People think student loan debt in the 100,000Gs is horrible indentured servitude, how about being responsible for 10G a month for the rest of your working life?
The whole story here is paying 10G in alimony per month. 10Gs! How can anyone be liable for that kind of dough? People think student loan debt in the 100,000Gs is horrible indentured servitude, how about being responsible for 10G a month for the rest of your working life?
Saturday, January 25, 2014
Bar Fights
Many initiators of bar fights recently experienced sexual frustration, rejection, or reversals. I could have guessed as much anecdotally. Goes to my theory that suicide terrorism is rooted in massive sexual repression in Salafist thought.
Many initiators of bar fights recently experienced sexual frustration, rejection, or reversals. I could have guessed as much anecdotally. Goes to my theory that suicide terrorism is rooted in massive sexual repression in Salafist thought.
Logging
Film: August: Osage County
Does this director watch movies? The camera positioning is noticeably poor.
Also, I've seen this play and watching the film is a good lesson on the difference between language in plays and language in films. Great theater language can easily come across as poofy and false in movies. The camera sees too much.
Book: How Wars Are Won: 13 Rules of War
Loved this book. A great primer on military history and strategy. Reading this book, I'm dumbfounded by how little contemporary Americans think and talk about military history. First of all, many of these major Generals completely shaped modern history. The battle of Hastings, the Battle of Trafalgar, Sherman's March to the Sea, Vicksburg, the American campaign of Island hopping in the Pacific, Mao's conquest of China and fight against Americans in the Korean War, just to name a handful. I'm pretty sure most of my contemporaries could talk about every movie Spike Jonze has ever directed, and at the same time, couldn't explain in the most basic terms what happened in the Korean War. Isn't that just absurd? Are we filling our minds with all the wrong kind of information? Methinks so, especially in the digital age. READ A BOOK!
TV: True Detective Ep. 1 and 2
Really enjoyed the 2nd episode.
Film: August: Osage County
Does this director watch movies? The camera positioning is noticeably poor.
Also, I've seen this play and watching the film is a good lesson on the difference between language in plays and language in films. Great theater language can easily come across as poofy and false in movies. The camera sees too much.
Book: How Wars Are Won: 13 Rules of War
Loved this book. A great primer on military history and strategy. Reading this book, I'm dumbfounded by how little contemporary Americans think and talk about military history. First of all, many of these major Generals completely shaped modern history. The battle of Hastings, the Battle of Trafalgar, Sherman's March to the Sea, Vicksburg, the American campaign of Island hopping in the Pacific, Mao's conquest of China and fight against Americans in the Korean War, just to name a handful. I'm pretty sure most of my contemporaries could talk about every movie Spike Jonze has ever directed, and at the same time, couldn't explain in the most basic terms what happened in the Korean War. Isn't that just absurd? Are we filling our minds with all the wrong kind of information? Methinks so, especially in the digital age. READ A BOOK!
TV: True Detective Ep. 1 and 2
Really enjoyed the 2nd episode.
Wednesday, January 22, 2014
Wow
Explaining why Obamacare is beyond rescue.
This really, truly has nothing to do with Republican opposition to the law. These arguments detail exactly why Obamacare is not working by it's own standards.
Explaining why Obamacare is beyond rescue.
This really, truly has nothing to do with Republican opposition to the law. These arguments detail exactly why Obamacare is not working by it's own standards.
Tuesday, January 21, 2014
Thank You, Internet
Tarantino will shelve his next movie because a draft of the script leaked. I understand the reaction. It's probably a bit over-emotional, but still understandable. Scripts are works in progress. Plus, unless they are intended to be spread wide, why spread them wide? Who gains from this? Some trolls on the internet? I don't understand why people do this. Is the 2 minute status bump you get from passing on a QT script worth it? Anyhow, why anyone wants to read a first draft of a script is beyond me. It's a lose-lose either way. It's good and it ruins the movie for you, it's bad, and then you read a bad script that'll never get made. Dumb.
Tarantino will shelve his next movie because a draft of the script leaked. I understand the reaction. It's probably a bit over-emotional, but still understandable. Scripts are works in progress. Plus, unless they are intended to be spread wide, why spread them wide? Who gains from this? Some trolls on the internet? I don't understand why people do this. Is the 2 minute status bump you get from passing on a QT script worth it? Anyhow, why anyone wants to read a first draft of a script is beyond me. It's a lose-lose either way. It's good and it ruins the movie for you, it's bad, and then you read a bad script that'll never get made. Dumb.
Monday, January 20, 2014
Sunday, January 19, 2014
Other Small Representative Detail
On the 4th down play with 02:01 left in the game, the Niners got a first down and Kap ran up to the line trying to get another play going. He didn't realize it was the two-minute warning. It was a small thing, but not having this type of game awareness is a killer in pro quarterback. Here is Kap in the press conference. His shortness is a strange affectation, unnatural, and comes across as trying to be too serious.
On the 4th down play with 02:01 left in the game, the Niners got a first down and Kap ran up to the line trying to get another play going. He didn't realize it was the two-minute warning. It was a small thing, but not having this type of game awareness is a killer in pro quarterback. Here is Kap in the press conference. His shortness is a strange affectation, unnatural, and comes across as trying to be too serious.
Reaction To Game
I'm incredibly disappointed. This is the 2nd year in a row the Niners got outplayed and outcoached on the biggest stage. I'll break this down into the Ugly, the Bad, and the Good.
The Ugly
1. Kaepernick's abilities as a quarterback. 2 interceptions, 2 fumbles (1 lost), a horrible delay of game penalty, a dumbass jump throw that should have been intercepted. If Peyton Manning did this, the headlines would be choker. If Alex Smith did this, we'd want to run him out of town.
2. Offensive game plan. Totally devoid of creativity. Our running game was pathetic. Our receivers couldn't get open. How many times do we need to play Seattle to figure out something on those guys? We had all our "weapons" and couldn't do crap. Our touchdowns were on a lucky throw to Boldin that Troy Aikman said on air "I was sure that pass was getting picked off" when it left his hands. And off the big broken play Kaepernick run.
3. Bowman's injury. Makes me not want to watch football.
4. Crabtree has another hugely disappointing big game. This is the guy who held out for more money?!? Guys who get paid big money need to show up in NFC championship games. Against the Giants two years ago, people blamed Alex Smith. This year, who do we blame his disappearing act on? The Seattle secondary? Perhaps. But still, if you want top receiver money, you better play well against the best. I can't tell if Kap threw a bad pass on 3rd and 2 or whether Crabtree just totally bailed out on a play and didn't want to get hit.
5. The secondary on deep balls. Rodgers seemed to be in a good position to make a play on that ridiculous 4th and 7 touchdown, but he missed it. Whitner got out of position on the long pass. This has been a problem for 3 years and gets exposed at the worst times.
6. The refs. They didn't decide the game, but there were several outrageously bad calls. An unsportsman-like on Carlos Rodgers for a little shove at the end of the half was horrible and I thought the Niners could have tried to score there. The hit to the head by Whitner in the first half was insane because the guy moved at the last minute and the contact was inadvertent. Russell Wilson did an obvious intentional grounding that wasn't called. They totally missed a huge fumble recovery on the Bowman injury, although the Seahawks fumbled the subsequent play anyway. Richard Sherman holds on every single play and they only called it once. They totally missed a letter of the law penalty on the roughing-the-kicker. Truly terrible overall game that went against the Niner's at key moments. That said, it wasn't the deciding factor of the game.
The Bad
1. Frank Gore. He couldn't get anything going.
2. Penalties. Jumping offsides on snap counts twice was killer.
3. The first drive/red zone. Really needed to score there and had horrible play calling.
4. Boldin's drops. Haven't seen him drop two passes all year and he dropped two in the first half.
5. Defensive letdowns at key moments. The 4th and 7 was super annoying. The long Lynch run was one bad play. And that's 14 points and the ballgame. I hate to say anything about the defense because they played so well for so much of the game and it's unfair to expect them to be perfect in order to win. And they needed to be perfect. I thought we got rid of Alex Smith to fix this problem.
6. Deep throws to Davis. What happened to them?
The Good
1. Seattle is one of the best teams in the league and we had a chance to win. Let's put it in perspective.
2. Kaepernick as a runner. He was our only effective offensive weapon in the game, in addition to the quarterback who totally blew it. I wouldn't pay this guy 10-20 million a year.
3. Pass pressure. We got to Wilson a lot. It was a good defensive game plan.
4. Goal-line offense. A big 4th down conversion for a TD -- good play calling.
I believe our window is closing rapidly. A lot of our players are due a major raise and I don't know who we should keep. I have HUGE questions about Kaepernick. I even have reservations about Harbaugh. This is the 3rd year in a row we've lost very winnable games at the end of the year. He gets us there, no doubt, but our preparation/game-plan for the Super Bowl last year and this game were not very impressive. Why were we able to bust out clever plays in our first drive against Arizona (a top defense) in a meaningless week 17 game, but not against Seattle in the NFC championship? Why is Crabtree able to get open on Patrick Peterson and not Richard Sherman? Both Harbaugh and Kaepernick are gambling their contracts on post-season performance. Are they due top money? Because here's my question: if we pay Kap, what does the rest of the team look like? Who do we build around? Kap, Crabtree, our O-line, and linebackers? Is that where we spend our money? We'll lose Gore, Justin Smith, and Boldin to retirement or money soon. Can we afford Davis and Crabtree and Kap?
If our team is built around Crabtree, Kap, some new running back, Bowman and Aldon Smith, and then somehow we manage to continue paying Willis and Vernon Davis. I dunno. It doesn't sound like a championship team to me. It sounds worse than our present team unless we pick up some beast to replace Justin Smith in the middle and some amazing cornerback somehow.
I just don't think Kaepernick is the guy. I think he's Mark Sanchez with legs.
I'm incredibly disappointed. This is the 2nd year in a row the Niners got outplayed and outcoached on the biggest stage. I'll break this down into the Ugly, the Bad, and the Good.
The Ugly
1. Kaepernick's abilities as a quarterback. 2 interceptions, 2 fumbles (1 lost), a horrible delay of game penalty, a dumbass jump throw that should have been intercepted. If Peyton Manning did this, the headlines would be choker. If Alex Smith did this, we'd want to run him out of town.
2. Offensive game plan. Totally devoid of creativity. Our running game was pathetic. Our receivers couldn't get open. How many times do we need to play Seattle to figure out something on those guys? We had all our "weapons" and couldn't do crap. Our touchdowns were on a lucky throw to Boldin that Troy Aikman said on air "I was sure that pass was getting picked off" when it left his hands. And off the big broken play Kaepernick run.
3. Bowman's injury. Makes me not want to watch football.
4. Crabtree has another hugely disappointing big game. This is the guy who held out for more money?!? Guys who get paid big money need to show up in NFC championship games. Against the Giants two years ago, people blamed Alex Smith. This year, who do we blame his disappearing act on? The Seattle secondary? Perhaps. But still, if you want top receiver money, you better play well against the best. I can't tell if Kap threw a bad pass on 3rd and 2 or whether Crabtree just totally bailed out on a play and didn't want to get hit.
5. The secondary on deep balls. Rodgers seemed to be in a good position to make a play on that ridiculous 4th and 7 touchdown, but he missed it. Whitner got out of position on the long pass. This has been a problem for 3 years and gets exposed at the worst times.
6. The refs. They didn't decide the game, but there were several outrageously bad calls. An unsportsman-like on Carlos Rodgers for a little shove at the end of the half was horrible and I thought the Niners could have tried to score there. The hit to the head by Whitner in the first half was insane because the guy moved at the last minute and the contact was inadvertent. Russell Wilson did an obvious intentional grounding that wasn't called. They totally missed a huge fumble recovery on the Bowman injury, although the Seahawks fumbled the subsequent play anyway. Richard Sherman holds on every single play and they only called it once. They totally missed a letter of the law penalty on the roughing-the-kicker. Truly terrible overall game that went against the Niner's at key moments. That said, it wasn't the deciding factor of the game.
The Bad
1. Frank Gore. He couldn't get anything going.
2. Penalties. Jumping offsides on snap counts twice was killer.
3. The first drive/red zone. Really needed to score there and had horrible play calling.
4. Boldin's drops. Haven't seen him drop two passes all year and he dropped two in the first half.
5. Defensive letdowns at key moments. The 4th and 7 was super annoying. The long Lynch run was one bad play. And that's 14 points and the ballgame. I hate to say anything about the defense because they played so well for so much of the game and it's unfair to expect them to be perfect in order to win. And they needed to be perfect. I thought we got rid of Alex Smith to fix this problem.
6. Deep throws to Davis. What happened to them?
The Good
1. Seattle is one of the best teams in the league and we had a chance to win. Let's put it in perspective.
2. Kaepernick as a runner. He was our only effective offensive weapon in the game, in addition to the quarterback who totally blew it. I wouldn't pay this guy 10-20 million a year.
3. Pass pressure. We got to Wilson a lot. It was a good defensive game plan.
4. Goal-line offense. A big 4th down conversion for a TD -- good play calling.
I believe our window is closing rapidly. A lot of our players are due a major raise and I don't know who we should keep. I have HUGE questions about Kaepernick. I even have reservations about Harbaugh. This is the 3rd year in a row we've lost very winnable games at the end of the year. He gets us there, no doubt, but our preparation/game-plan for the Super Bowl last year and this game were not very impressive. Why were we able to bust out clever plays in our first drive against Arizona (a top defense) in a meaningless week 17 game, but not against Seattle in the NFC championship? Why is Crabtree able to get open on Patrick Peterson and not Richard Sherman? Both Harbaugh and Kaepernick are gambling their contracts on post-season performance. Are they due top money? Because here's my question: if we pay Kap, what does the rest of the team look like? Who do we build around? Kap, Crabtree, our O-line, and linebackers? Is that where we spend our money? We'll lose Gore, Justin Smith, and Boldin to retirement or money soon. Can we afford Davis and Crabtree and Kap?
If our team is built around Crabtree, Kap, some new running back, Bowman and Aldon Smith, and then somehow we manage to continue paying Willis and Vernon Davis. I dunno. It doesn't sound like a championship team to me. It sounds worse than our present team unless we pick up some beast to replace Justin Smith in the middle and some amazing cornerback somehow.
I just don't think Kaepernick is the guy. I think he's Mark Sanchez with legs.
Cowards
The New York Film critics are a bunch of cowards. Anyone with a set of balls out to quit the group in protest of kicking White out.
Key quotes of the article:
The New York Film critics are a bunch of cowards. Anyone with a set of balls out to quit the group in protest of kicking White out.
Key quotes of the article:
In Mr. White’s view, the expulsion was symptomatic of what he sees as a group in decline, beholden to studios that help foot the dinner’s bill and reviewers who are unwilling, if not unable, to criticize films as eruditely as he can — and thus they are jealous and vindictive. In the last few days, he has publicly likened the group to “Mean Girls” and identified “enemies” who, he says, worked to successfully kick him, the unpopular kid, out.
“It’s an incestuous clubhouse of friends,” he said over breakfast the other day, “not people who made their bones as journalists or critics.”When I was in college, our student newspaper was taken over by a group of friends and the content was complete garbage. They had student journalists making up quotes for articles. Seriously. Making up quotes. I caught them in the act and was asked by an editor to write a "Letter to the Editor." I refused. You can't have a polite disagreement or discussion with a dishonorable publication. The paper didn't meet the basic decency of journalism. I thought this was unique to immature, pretentious college kids. Turns out those type of kids are not adults and behaving the same way in the world of art criticism. If you don't think these people deserve some of the blame for the "decline of movies" you would be foolish.
Why Does Lena Dunham Irritate Everyone?
She can't do a magazine shoot without pissing people off. I don't understand who is annoyed by this: her fans or her haters. Do her fans feel betrayed? Or are the haters looking for any excuse?
She can't do a magazine shoot without pissing people off. I don't understand who is annoyed by this: her fans or her haters. Do her fans feel betrayed? Or are the haters looking for any excuse?
Niners Player Power Rankings
The Niners are a very tough team to rank. They have no obvious best player. Their talent is spread around fairly evenly and everyone fills a role. Unlike Peyton or Brady their leader, Frank Gore, is not their most dangerous player. For purposes of this ranking I am taking into consideration - talent, value of position played (ie QB is more important than middle linebacker), leadership qualities, and danger to the other team.
Power Rankings
#1 - Justin Smith. The strength of the Niners is our defense and Smith is the centerpiece. Willis and Bowman might be more talented and even better players, but in some ways, the presence of both devalue each other to the team. Smith is the guy that cannot be replaced. He is the guy that stuffs the line of scrimmage and enables the Niners to stop the run with 6 or 7 guys. Last year, when he went out, our defense (including Aldon Smith) was a shell of itself.
#2 - Vernon Davis. Ask any offensive coordinator playing the Niners, and I guarantee he's most worried about 85. He is the Niners only true deep threat and poses a match up problem for every NFL defense. He is too fast to be covered by linebackers and too big to be covered by cornerbacks. Without Davis to stretch the field, our offense struggles.
#3 and #4 - NaVarro Bowman and Patrick Willis. I can't separate the two. Bowmen by all accounts has had a better year. That play against the Falcons to win the game was one of the most amazing defensive plays I've ever seen. But according to other NFL players, Willis is like number 5 of who they are most afraid of on the field. Willis is a maniac and has been an All-Pro linebacker ever since he entered the league.
#5 - Joe Staley. I have trouble evaluating offensive line play, but by some accounts he's considered one of the best left tackles in football. He's played almost every game and neither our QB or our RB got hurt all season. He must be doing something right.
#6 - Anquan Boldin. He is our 3rd down security blanket. I would vote him offensive MVP of the year. He doesn't have the talent or the speed, but he has the skills. I've never appreciated how good he was until watching him play all year. He is the antidote to "tough" defenses like the Seahawks and the Panthers. He is tougher and meaner and stronger than any of the D-backs on any of those teams and cannot be intimidated by them. The man played once with a broken face. A broken face!
#7 - Ahmad Brooks. He gets overshadowed by Willis and Bowman, but the guy is one of the best linebackers in the league and just happens to play with the best tandem in a generation. Really amazing.
#8 - Kaepernick. I don't honestly know where to put the guy. Part of me thinks he belongs higher because if he were out of the game, we'd be in trouble. But that's simply because we don't have a good back up QB. I think this Niners team would be pretty awesome with almost any league average QB. And I can't tell is Kaepernick is above or below league average. Part of me almost wants to put him lower because of this factor. He's a unique player, that's for sure. His running ability must give defenses nightmares. But he WILL may a mistake or several every single game and he gives me nightmares as a fan as well.
#10 - Donte Whitner. Love this guy. Hits hard and hits legal. Our sweeper in the secondary.
The Niners are a very tough team to rank. They have no obvious best player. Their talent is spread around fairly evenly and everyone fills a role. Unlike Peyton or Brady their leader, Frank Gore, is not their most dangerous player. For purposes of this ranking I am taking into consideration - talent, value of position played (ie QB is more important than middle linebacker), leadership qualities, and danger to the other team.
Power Rankings
#1 - Justin Smith. The strength of the Niners is our defense and Smith is the centerpiece. Willis and Bowman might be more talented and even better players, but in some ways, the presence of both devalue each other to the team. Smith is the guy that cannot be replaced. He is the guy that stuffs the line of scrimmage and enables the Niners to stop the run with 6 or 7 guys. Last year, when he went out, our defense (including Aldon Smith) was a shell of itself.
#2 - Vernon Davis. Ask any offensive coordinator playing the Niners, and I guarantee he's most worried about 85. He is the Niners only true deep threat and poses a match up problem for every NFL defense. He is too fast to be covered by linebackers and too big to be covered by cornerbacks. Without Davis to stretch the field, our offense struggles.
#3 and #4 - NaVarro Bowman and Patrick Willis. I can't separate the two. Bowmen by all accounts has had a better year. That play against the Falcons to win the game was one of the most amazing defensive plays I've ever seen. But according to other NFL players, Willis is like number 5 of who they are most afraid of on the field. Willis is a maniac and has been an All-Pro linebacker ever since he entered the league.
#5 - Joe Staley. I have trouble evaluating offensive line play, but by some accounts he's considered one of the best left tackles in football. He's played almost every game and neither our QB or our RB got hurt all season. He must be doing something right.
#6 - Anquan Boldin. He is our 3rd down security blanket. I would vote him offensive MVP of the year. He doesn't have the talent or the speed, but he has the skills. I've never appreciated how good he was until watching him play all year. He is the antidote to "tough" defenses like the Seahawks and the Panthers. He is tougher and meaner and stronger than any of the D-backs on any of those teams and cannot be intimidated by them. The man played once with a broken face. A broken face!
#7 - Ahmad Brooks. He gets overshadowed by Willis and Bowman, but the guy is one of the best linebackers in the league and just happens to play with the best tandem in a generation. Really amazing.
#8 - Kaepernick. I don't honestly know where to put the guy. Part of me thinks he belongs higher because if he were out of the game, we'd be in trouble. But that's simply because we don't have a good back up QB. I think this Niners team would be pretty awesome with almost any league average QB. And I can't tell is Kaepernick is above or below league average. Part of me almost wants to put him lower because of this factor. He's a unique player, that's for sure. His running ability must give defenses nightmares. But he WILL may a mistake or several every single game and he gives me nightmares as a fan as well.
#9 - Frank Gore. Gore deserves to be higher, but he plays running back and is on the downside of his career. He isn't as big a danger to make big plays as he used to be, but he knows how to hit the right hole and pick up 3-5 yards on first and second down. He gives the Niners their identity as a run-first offense. He is a leader and the heart and soul of the team on the field. He's not higher, because they'd survive without him and the true heart and soul is Harbaugh.
#10 - Donte Whitner. Love this guy. Hits hard and hits legal. Our sweeper in the secondary.
#11 - Mike Iputi/Alex Boone. Watch the Niners get a big push on run plays. These guys are why.
#12 - Michael Crabtree. He might be our most talented weapon next to Davis. He's got great hands. We are much more dangerous when he plays. In terms of "value," because of his youth, he's up there. But we are still a pretty good team without him. He's been injured and a non-factor a number of times. He disappeared in big games and people blamed Alex Smith, but I'm not so sure. Boldin had big games as the only receiving threat. And he doesn't break long gains. But look at this 2-12 ranking...Crabtree is pretty close to being as good as Davis and this is a testament to the Niners greatest strength...all around depth at position play (not bench).
#13 - Ray McDonald. Another big part of the Niners vaunted "front seven."
#14 - Terrell Brown/Carlos Rodgers/Eric Reid - all guys are solid as far as I can tell, but none really stand out as A-list cornerbacks/safeties yet. Reid played well at the beginning of the year, but has not been as big a presence lately.
#15 - Andy Lee. A great punter. Adds value.
#16 - Phil Dawson. Also a good place kicker. Hits the one's he needs to.
#17 - Bruce Miller. A very effective fullback, unfortunately injured. Our biggest injury problem because even though Ian Williams is good, his replacement, Glenn Dorsey is playing well.
#18 - Kendall Hunter. An effective 2nd running back, but will probably never be a number 1 running back.
#19 - Jonathan Goodwin. A solid center. Probably deserves to be higher.
#20 - Glenn Dorsey. Filling in at nose tackle, done a very good job.
Friday, January 17, 2014
Wednesday, January 15, 2014
Harbaugh
His pleated khaki pants cost $8 at Walmart. His wife called into a SF radio station and told the hosts she tossed his pants because they reflect poorly on her and went out and bought new ones.
His pleated khaki pants cost $8 at Walmart. His wife called into a SF radio station and told the hosts she tossed his pants because they reflect poorly on her and went out and bought new ones.
Tuesday, January 14, 2014
Monday, January 13, 2014
Shame on the New York Film Critics
They've kicked the most interesting critic out of their club: Armond White. This is gross on many levels.
1. Undoubtedly, White's controversial and out-of-lockstep criticism is a factor in his dismissal.
2. Has anyone come forward and publicly stated what was said? Every account I've read of the incident is heresy. If his "hateful" comments were so hateful and he disputes how the information is received, why is no one coming forward and publicly saying what he said?
3. This is the triumph of group-think over the individual. What's worse, this is corporatized group-think. These critics want to stay in the good graces of the industry money-people who they mistakenly believe they depend on.
4. Why are critics only allowed to applaud? These mealy-mouthed employees of ministries of information say they stand for "freedom of speech and expression" and don't allow this man to boo and jeer? If you hate a film, you must stay silent, but if you love a film, you can applaud? Who made this rule? Why can't one boo? I think the audience has a right to boo just as they have a right to laugh and clap.
5. If White was as rude as advertised, the proper way to deal with it is for Steve McQueen to punch him in the nose (Richard Ford did it to a critic). The summoning of a committee to kick Armond White out of the group is a terrifying symbol: dare not disagree with us, dare not have an opinion out of lock-step, dare not speak you mind, for we will do everything in our power to ruin your career and reputation. These are not liberals as in a John Stuart Mill, Voltaire tradition. These people act more like McCarthy-ite thugs.
They've kicked the most interesting critic out of their club: Armond White. This is gross on many levels.
1. Undoubtedly, White's controversial and out-of-lockstep criticism is a factor in his dismissal.
2. Has anyone come forward and publicly stated what was said? Every account I've read of the incident is heresy. If his "hateful" comments were so hateful and he disputes how the information is received, why is no one coming forward and publicly saying what he said?
3. This is the triumph of group-think over the individual. What's worse, this is corporatized group-think. These critics want to stay in the good graces of the industry money-people who they mistakenly believe they depend on.
4. Why are critics only allowed to applaud? These mealy-mouthed employees of ministries of information say they stand for "freedom of speech and expression" and don't allow this man to boo and jeer? If you hate a film, you must stay silent, but if you love a film, you can applaud? Who made this rule? Why can't one boo? I think the audience has a right to boo just as they have a right to laugh and clap.
5. If White was as rude as advertised, the proper way to deal with it is for Steve McQueen to punch him in the nose (Richard Ford did it to a critic). The summoning of a committee to kick Armond White out of the group is a terrifying symbol: dare not disagree with us, dare not have an opinion out of lock-step, dare not speak you mind, for we will do everything in our power to ruin your career and reputation. These are not liberals as in a John Stuart Mill, Voltaire tradition. These people act more like McCarthy-ite thugs.
Sunday, January 12, 2014
Brave? No...
One of my biggest issues not with Lena Dunham, but rather the critical reception to Lena Dunham, is the idea of her nudity being "brave."
I hear this mantra ad naseum. I see her nudity as attention-seeking, no different than Paris Hilton releasing a sex tape. And both successfully achieved their aim.
People call Lena brave because she is overweight. But what does this have to do with bravery? Is Chris Christie brave because he's an overweight governor? Would he be brave if he posed, Vlad Putin-like, without his shirt? No.
The nudity is of the gross-out look-at-me variety, the same thing some immature 6-year olds are achieving when they pull down their pants and show the world their wi-wi's. I've never heard a New York critic watch something like this and consider the act brave. Then again, maybe if they showed it on HBO...
One of my biggest issues not with Lena Dunham, but rather the critical reception to Lena Dunham, is the idea of her nudity being "brave."
I hear this mantra ad naseum. I see her nudity as attention-seeking, no different than Paris Hilton releasing a sex tape. And both successfully achieved their aim.
People call Lena brave because she is overweight. But what does this have to do with bravery? Is Chris Christie brave because he's an overweight governor? Would he be brave if he posed, Vlad Putin-like, without his shirt? No.
The nudity is of the gross-out look-at-me variety, the same thing some immature 6-year olds are achieving when they pull down their pants and show the world their wi-wi's. I've never heard a New York critic watch something like this and consider the act brave. Then again, maybe if they showed it on HBO...
Betting Results
Indy-Pats - W (+20)
Niners-Carolina - W (+20)
New Orleans - Seattle - L (-20)
San Diego-Denver - W (+20)
Carolina 65-1 to win Super Bowl - L (-20)
Indy to win AFC - L (-20)
Overall: Even for the weekend
Total: $180 down 20 total
This is why I don't really bet on sports, but I'll make some gambles next weekend.
Indy-Pats - W (+20)
Niners-Carolina - W (+20)
New Orleans - Seattle - L (-20)
San Diego-Denver - W (+20)
Carolina 65-1 to win Super Bowl - L (-20)
Indy to win AFC - L (-20)
Overall: Even for the weekend
Total: $180 down 20 total
This is why I don't really bet on sports, but I'll make some gambles next weekend.
Thursday, January 09, 2014
Ouch
An interview with an Obamacare expert.
An interview with an Obamacare expert.
The problem with Obamacare is it’s product driven and not market driven. They didn’t ask the customer what they wanted. And I think that’s the fundamental problem with Obamacare. It meets the needs of very poor people because you’re giving them health insurance for free. But it doesn’t really meet the needs of healthy people and middle-class people.And - are they really going to punish people for not purchasing insurance? How is that going to work? Will people pay? And remember - this will not be the 1% - or even the 10% - this will be the 90% who are getting fined for not purchasing the mandated insurance. And you're going to throw a major penalty at them? Does anyone think this is politically feasible? Who is going to collect these debts?
Woops
Restricted building zone in Hollywood is putting a damper on major developments.
I live eerily close to a major fault.
Restricted building zone in Hollywood is putting a damper on major developments.
I live eerily close to a major fault.
Tuesday, January 07, 2014
If I Bet On Sports...Week 2...
Now it gets interesting.
Total: $180 (lost $20 on Chiefs)
Outstanding bets:
Carolina 65 to 1 to win Super Bowl
Indianapolis 15 to 1 to win AFC
This week's bets:
1. Hedging Indy by betting New England and giving 7 points - betting $20.
(I could get middled here, but I don't like how much I have to pay on the moneyline. I stupidly like the Colts in a close game.)
2. Hedging Carolina by betting Niners moneyline - betting $26 to win $20 back.
Going with all underdogs because I think they CAN win.
3. New Orleans and the 7.5 points against Seattle - $20
4. San Diego and the 10 points against Denver - $20
If Carolina or Indy win, my futures bet will hopefully pay off in some way.
Now it gets interesting.
Total: $180 (lost $20 on Chiefs)
Outstanding bets:
Carolina 65 to 1 to win Super Bowl
Indianapolis 15 to 1 to win AFC
This week's bets:
1. Hedging Indy by betting New England and giving 7 points - betting $20.
(I could get middled here, but I don't like how much I have to pay on the moneyline. I stupidly like the Colts in a close game.)
2. Hedging Carolina by betting Niners moneyline - betting $26 to win $20 back.
Going with all underdogs because I think they CAN win.
3. New Orleans and the 7.5 points against Seattle - $20
4. San Diego and the 10 points against Denver - $20
If Carolina or Indy win, my futures bet will hopefully pay off in some way.
Facebook Sued and Snowden
Facebook sued because they sell private data to advertisers.
I was listening to Left, Right, and Center today and they were talking about the Edward Snowden leaks. Continenti mae some good points:
1. If Snowden's act was true civil disobedience, he would accept the consequences of his data release, and go to jail. Instead, he runs off to Russia like a pussy and does this slow-motion leaking of data to remain in the public eye (or some other bizarro reason).
2. The meta-data the US government is PROVIDED by people. The government isn't recording conversations in living rooms without our knowledge or following us around and figuring out who we meet up with. They are collecting and sifting through cell phone data (which you know is tracked if you ever look at your cell phone bill), your Facebook, and Google, and websearches, etc, all of which WE KNOW IS BEING LOOKED AT AND COLLECTED. I'm a huge proponent of privacy rights, but I don't think you are entitled to make Facebook posts and then get pissed off when people look at them. And cell phones - no one forced any of us to use cell phones - that's a choice - and you can deduce by the very basics of the technology, they aren't exactly secure. So...you want privacy, close the window shades. Stop using Facebook and Google. No one's forcing you to.
Facebook sued because they sell private data to advertisers.
I was listening to Left, Right, and Center today and they were talking about the Edward Snowden leaks. Continenti mae some good points:
1. If Snowden's act was true civil disobedience, he would accept the consequences of his data release, and go to jail. Instead, he runs off to Russia like a pussy and does this slow-motion leaking of data to remain in the public eye (or some other bizarro reason).
2. The meta-data the US government is PROVIDED by people. The government isn't recording conversations in living rooms without our knowledge or following us around and figuring out who we meet up with. They are collecting and sifting through cell phone data (which you know is tracked if you ever look at your cell phone bill), your Facebook, and Google, and websearches, etc, all of which WE KNOW IS BEING LOOKED AT AND COLLECTED. I'm a huge proponent of privacy rights, but I don't think you are entitled to make Facebook posts and then get pissed off when people look at them. And cell phones - no one forced any of us to use cell phones - that's a choice - and you can deduce by the very basics of the technology, they aren't exactly secure. So...you want privacy, close the window shades. Stop using Facebook and Google. No one's forcing you to.
Cosmic Justice
Chinese man meets internet crush and turns out to be daughter-in-law.
And the logline doesn't do the story justice.
Chinese man meets internet crush and turns out to be daughter-in-law.
And the logline doesn't do the story justice.
Sunday, January 05, 2014
Logging
Film: Her
I didn't buy it. I'm sorry. I don't believe these kind of premises for movies or in this outlook toward the world. I don't believe three people and a Siri voice can sit atop the Santa Monica mountains having a picnic and a jolly old conversation. I call bullshit.
I'm just a good old fashioned humanist, okay? This means I believe in the intrinsic value of human life and that our politics, our culture, and our social institutions evolve out of this premise and not others. Human life has value not because we are conscious or because we are rational, but because we are human. That's why we can eat animals and it is not okay to kill babies.
Anyhow, this is largely the root of my dislike and distrust of hipsterism, Facebook, internet dating, and digital/computer culture in general. They are all part of a movement to treat other people primarily as objects of amusement as opposed to something of intrinsic value. It reduces people to an accumulation of Facebook posts, status bars, what kind of cutesy clothes they wear, or band they went to listen to last night. And so of course, if you view other people this way, there certainly IS no difference between a person and the computer voice of Scarlett Johansson.
Film: Her
I didn't buy it. I'm sorry. I don't believe these kind of premises for movies or in this outlook toward the world. I don't believe three people and a Siri voice can sit atop the Santa Monica mountains having a picnic and a jolly old conversation. I call bullshit.
I'm just a good old fashioned humanist, okay? This means I believe in the intrinsic value of human life and that our politics, our culture, and our social institutions evolve out of this premise and not others. Human life has value not because we are conscious or because we are rational, but because we are human. That's why we can eat animals and it is not okay to kill babies.
Anyhow, this is largely the root of my dislike and distrust of hipsterism, Facebook, internet dating, and digital/computer culture in general. They are all part of a movement to treat other people primarily as objects of amusement as opposed to something of intrinsic value. It reduces people to an accumulation of Facebook posts, status bars, what kind of cutesy clothes they wear, or band they went to listen to last night. And so of course, if you view other people this way, there certainly IS no difference between a person and the computer voice of Scarlett Johansson.
Niners Win
It was closer than it could have been, but we'll take it. Kaepernick once again mixes dumbass plays with great ones using his legs. His 3rd and 8 scramble on the final drive was the biggest play of the game.
Our game plan was good, but once again, there is some type of communication problem between Kaepernick and the sideline or something, because the Niners constantly are wasting time outs during games. In the beginning of the 2nd half, Kaepernick forgot his wristband with all the plays on it and needed a time out on the first play of the 2nd half.
My only gripes were not running the ball on 1st and goal from the 5 and not finishing in the redzone on those early possessions. Rodgers almost made us pay.
The final drive was great, however, burning 4 plus minutes and getting down into field goal range. Great clock management.
Crabtree played great and the defense was stout all day. We let them back in it, but I could tell we were playing not to give up the big pass play, which is why Lacy's had a decent running day. (a game plan the Chiefs should have used in the 2nd half yesterday). Rodgers made some great plays - the fourth down play and one of the TD throws. Hard to complain with how the defense acquitted itself overall.
Onto Carolina. In my fake better, I'll be putting $40 or so on the Niners.
It was closer than it could have been, but we'll take it. Kaepernick once again mixes dumbass plays with great ones using his legs. His 3rd and 8 scramble on the final drive was the biggest play of the game.
Our game plan was good, but once again, there is some type of communication problem between Kaepernick and the sideline or something, because the Niners constantly are wasting time outs during games. In the beginning of the 2nd half, Kaepernick forgot his wristband with all the plays on it and needed a time out on the first play of the 2nd half.
My only gripes were not running the ball on 1st and goal from the 5 and not finishing in the redzone on those early possessions. Rodgers almost made us pay.
The final drive was great, however, burning 4 plus minutes and getting down into field goal range. Great clock management.
Crabtree played great and the defense was stout all day. We let them back in it, but I could tell we were playing not to give up the big pass play, which is why Lacy's had a decent running day. (a game plan the Chiefs should have used in the 2nd half yesterday). Rodgers made some great plays - the fourth down play and one of the TD throws. Hard to complain with how the defense acquitted itself overall.
Onto Carolina. In my fake better, I'll be putting $40 or so on the Niners.
Stop Reading About Sports
All you need to do is go backwards and read articles written before sporting contests were played to demonstrate the inanity of predictive sports writing.
And yet, I'll keep reading. It's like getting suckered by movie previews.
All you need to do is go backwards and read articles written before sporting contests were played to demonstrate the inanity of predictive sports writing.
And yet, I'll keep reading. It's like getting suckered by movie previews.
Even Smarter
On why Netflix streaming is a lousy service for customers and the algorithms are dumbed down.
I always thought the studios could make their own Netflix streaming service if it ever became valuable enough to do so. But they have an even smarter policy: let Netflix make them money.
On why Netflix streaming is a lousy service for customers and the algorithms are dumbed down.
I always thought the studios could make their own Netflix streaming service if it ever became valuable enough to do so. But they have an even smarter policy: let Netflix make them money.
What’s more, the studios can watch the Netflix share price as easily as anybody else, and when they see it ending 2013 at $360 a share, valuing the company at well over $20 billion, that’s their sign to start raising rates sharply during the next round of negotiations. Which in turn helps explain why Netflix is losing so many great movies.I still get the DVDs.
Insane Football
Got home after a wedding last night and watched the Chiefs-Colts game. Wild stuff. In the second half, the Chiefs defense didn't make a single stop of the Colts. They got two interceptions, but literally could not make them punt. And the Colts, I think, only made one fourth down.
That is getting dominated. And horrible coaching. The Colts were throwing on them with ease for the most part. They barely could get pressure on Luck. Why not put in 8 defensive backs and make the Colts run? At least that would have chewed up clock. Why not blitz Luck more often if your regular guys couldn't put pressure on him? Just horrible strategic, in game, decision making.
Alex Smith was awesome. 378 yards, 4 TDs, No Ints. Missed a pass toward the end and the strip sack was bad, but losing their best player on the first drive and then putting up 44 points. Are you kidding? What a strange game.
Got home after a wedding last night and watched the Chiefs-Colts game. Wild stuff. In the second half, the Chiefs defense didn't make a single stop of the Colts. They got two interceptions, but literally could not make them punt. And the Colts, I think, only made one fourth down.
That is getting dominated. And horrible coaching. The Colts were throwing on them with ease for the most part. They barely could get pressure on Luck. Why not put in 8 defensive backs and make the Colts run? At least that would have chewed up clock. Why not blitz Luck more often if your regular guys couldn't put pressure on him? Just horrible strategic, in game, decision making.
Alex Smith was awesome. 378 yards, 4 TDs, No Ints. Missed a pass toward the end and the strip sack was bad, but losing their best player on the first drive and then putting up 44 points. Are you kidding? What a strange game.
Saturday, January 04, 2014
Oye
The tournament model of employment in academia and the theater.
The tournament model of employment in academia and the theater.
The “tournament model” of employment, in which a lucky few win the lottery while most people scrape by on very little, is a cruel and unattractive way to run a business. But it is cruelest in glamour industries such as the arts. Growing up on the Upper West Side, before it became the exclusive province of the wealthy, I inevitably met a lot of the people this model destroyed. The worst off were the folks who’d kept getting just a taste of success -- a minor part in a Broadway show, a critically acclaimed performance at a second-tier festival. Those folks kept waiting until their late 30s or early 40s for success and security that never arrived. By the time it was clear it never would, they were broke, and trying to start another career at a time when most people are heading into their peak earnings years. And the slow crushing of hope over a process of decades often did something tragic to their souls.Sounds eerily familiar.
Friday, January 03, 2014
10 Years Ago
I have an old IRA from my very first job. I got an end of the year statement email and looked back at the value from 10 years ago. I was pleased to find the IRA had doubled in value. Note, I never added or subtracted a penny to this account since then. There are two ways to look at this: 1) the number is misleading because I'm calculating after a huge stock market rally. or, 2) that time period included the great recession. Regardless, this was the time I was alive and working, so doubling money over ten years seems pretty cool. But then I got to thinking...is that money actually any more valuable?
Cost of things then versus now --
2002 - Bought a Subaru Impreza - cost - around $20,000
2014 - Subaru Impreza still costs around $20,000
2003 rent in SF - $1000 per month
2004 rent in LA - $750 per month
2014 rent in LA - $925 per month
(this would be significantly higher if I upgraded or had to rent a new place. there are many factors in rental costs and maybe my rents have stayed low because i'm downwardly mobile)
2004 average cost of lunch - $5-6
2014 average cost of lunch - at least $10
2004 average cost of shirt - $35-40
2014 average cost of shirt - $50-60
2004 - cost of leather jacket - $300 range
2014 - cost of leather jacket - $300 range
2004 - cost of everyday shoes - $100-200
2014 - cost of everyday shoes - $60-200
2004 - drink at bar - $3-5
2014 - drink at bar - $5-9
2004 - gas per gallon - around $2 per gallon
2014 - gas per gallon - near $4 per gallon
2004 - movie tix - $8
2014 - movie tix - $12-15
2004 - movie rental - $3
2014 - movie rental - $1-3
This is just off the top of my head, but my basic impression is that very few things have doubled in price. Gas and food, really, are the only costs I've noticed going way through the roof. I imagine housing costs did the same, but I don't know much about those. And obviously, you can spend more on items should you choose to upgrade. If you wanted to buy a nicer car, you could easily spend $40,000. Or a bigger place, you could spend as much as you want on rent/mortgage. But my point is that, for the same things, costs haven't gone up commensurate with investment yield.
This leads me to believe if you can invest in the stock market over the long run, you are increasing your spending power. Of course, if you are forced to sell at a bad time, this does not apply.
I have an old IRA from my very first job. I got an end of the year statement email and looked back at the value from 10 years ago. I was pleased to find the IRA had doubled in value. Note, I never added or subtracted a penny to this account since then. There are two ways to look at this: 1) the number is misleading because I'm calculating after a huge stock market rally. or, 2) that time period included the great recession. Regardless, this was the time I was alive and working, so doubling money over ten years seems pretty cool. But then I got to thinking...is that money actually any more valuable?
Cost of things then versus now --
2002 - Bought a Subaru Impreza - cost - around $20,000
2014 - Subaru Impreza still costs around $20,000
2003 rent in SF - $1000 per month
2004 rent in LA - $750 per month
2014 rent in LA - $925 per month
(this would be significantly higher if I upgraded or had to rent a new place. there are many factors in rental costs and maybe my rents have stayed low because i'm downwardly mobile)
2004 average cost of lunch - $5-6
2014 average cost of lunch - at least $10
2004 average cost of shirt - $35-40
2014 average cost of shirt - $50-60
2004 - cost of leather jacket - $300 range
2014 - cost of leather jacket - $300 range
2004 - cost of everyday shoes - $100-200
2014 - cost of everyday shoes - $60-200
2004 - drink at bar - $3-5
2014 - drink at bar - $5-9
2004 - gas per gallon - around $2 per gallon
2014 - gas per gallon - near $4 per gallon
2004 - movie tix - $8
2014 - movie tix - $12-15
2004 - movie rental - $3
2014 - movie rental - $1-3
This is just off the top of my head, but my basic impression is that very few things have doubled in price. Gas and food, really, are the only costs I've noticed going way through the roof. I imagine housing costs did the same, but I don't know much about those. And obviously, you can spend more on items should you choose to upgrade. If you wanted to buy a nicer car, you could easily spend $40,000. Or a bigger place, you could spend as much as you want on rent/mortgage. But my point is that, for the same things, costs haven't gone up commensurate with investment yield.
This leads me to believe if you can invest in the stock market over the long run, you are increasing your spending power. Of course, if you are forced to sell at a bad time, this does not apply.
Thursday, January 02, 2014
If I Bet On Sports...
Several weeks ago, my big bet was Carolina at 65-1 to win the Super Bowl. I didn't think they could win, but I would have put $20 on it and hedged it all the way out. So, like in middle school where you get a fake 20,000 to put into stocks, I'm doing my fake playoff betting:
1. Carolina $20 at 65-1 to win Super Bowl.
Since I see no clear favorite, I'm opting for higher payout potential.
2. Kansas City - $20 at 15-1 to win the AFC. (better value than the 30-1 Super Bowl because if they won the AFC, they'd be underdogs against any NFC team).
3. Indianpolis - $20 at 30-1 to win the Super Bowl. (at 12-1 to win the AFC, the Super Bowl is a better value bet).
All the wild card games are toss ups against the spread if you ask me. I truly have no idea what's going to happen in any of them. This is why I'm opting only for decent futures bets that I can later hedge or parlay. Going into the semi-finals, I'll have 2 of 3 future bets still alive.
Several weeks ago, my big bet was Carolina at 65-1 to win the Super Bowl. I didn't think they could win, but I would have put $20 on it and hedged it all the way out. So, like in middle school where you get a fake 20,000 to put into stocks, I'm doing my fake playoff betting:
1. Carolina $20 at 65-1 to win Super Bowl.
Since I see no clear favorite, I'm opting for higher payout potential.
2. Kansas City - $20 at 15-1 to win the AFC. (better value than the 30-1 Super Bowl because if they won the AFC, they'd be underdogs against any NFC team).
3. Indianpolis - $20 at 30-1 to win the Super Bowl. (at 12-1 to win the AFC, the Super Bowl is a better value bet).
All the wild card games are toss ups against the spread if you ask me. I truly have no idea what's going to happen in any of them. This is why I'm opting only for decent futures bets that I can later hedge or parlay. Going into the semi-finals, I'll have 2 of 3 future bets still alive.
Logging
NFL Pick Em Record 2013: 130-120 against the spread.
Second year in a row finishing over .500. Barely. Probably statistically insignificant improvement over flipping a coin to make picks. Still, finished 2nd out of 9 people and in the money for the first time. I'll take it. And be playing again next year.
Note: Finished 3rd in 2012, but probably with roughly the same record, around 130 wins.
NFL Pick Em Record 2013: 130-120 against the spread.
Second year in a row finishing over .500. Barely. Probably statistically insignificant improvement over flipping a coin to make picks. Still, finished 2nd out of 9 people and in the money for the first time. I'll take it. And be playing again next year.
Note: Finished 3rd in 2012, but probably with roughly the same record, around 130 wins.
Tuesday, December 31, 2013
I Love British Teenagers!
"What we've learned from working with 16-18 year olds in the UK is that Facebook is not just on the slide, it is basically dead and buried," Daniel Miller, professor of material culture at University College London, writes in a blog post. "Mostly they feel embarrassed even to be associated with it."Hope.
Income Inequality
Not sure whether it's relevant or silly to discuss income inequality and racial preference with regard to the NBA.
Not sure whether it's relevant or silly to discuss income inequality and racial preference with regard to the NBA.
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