Logging
Film: Oldboy
Really enjoyed this film. I missed the entire Vengeance trilogy and have for whatever reason never caught up. It was showing at the New Bev last night, so I caught it. Goofy, surreal, with some unbelievably awesome moments. It feels wonkily plotted, until the end it all comes together. Terrific.
Friday, November 08, 2013
Critical Re-Evaluation of Starship Troopers?
A beginning. I was a huge fan of this film. It came out at a time when I wasn't going to a lot of movies, and I dragged people to the theater to see it.
A beginning. I was a huge fan of this film. It came out at a time when I wasn't going to a lot of movies, and I dragged people to the theater to see it.
Thursday, November 07, 2013
Good Title
I'd like to read this book: The Antidote.
Blurb:
I'd like to read this book: The Antidote.
Blurb:
Looking both east and west, in bulletins from the past and from far afield, Oliver Burkeman introduces us to an unusual group of people who share a single, surprising way of thinking about life. Whether experimental psychologists, terrorism experts, Buddhists, hardheaded business consultants, Greek philosophers, or modern-day gurus, they argue that in our personal lives, and in society at large, it’s our constant effort to be happy that is making us miserable. And that there is an alternative path to happiness and success that involves embracing failure, pessimism, insecurity, and uncertainty—the very things we spend our lives trying to avoid. Thought-provoking, counterintuitive, and ultimately uplifting, The Antidote is the intelligent person’s guide to understanding the much-misunderstood idea of happiness
Logging
Reading: Blood's A Rover by James Ellroy
Man, I really loved American Tabloid, but am having a tough time with the other two. Ellroy is fun to read and I made it through The Cold Six Thousand just on the fumes from American Tabloid. Blood's A Rover is suffering from plotting. I'm 200 pages in and not even sure what these guys are trying to accomplish. At the moment, they're trying to infiltrate these weak-ass black power organizations and it just feels like super small stakes given the language and power of Ellroy's prose.
I'm having a hard time finding really good big novels. Started reading this Machado book Philosopher and Dog and it feels like it came from a different writer than the Alienist. Maybe it is a translator thing.
Reading: Blood's A Rover by James Ellroy
Man, I really loved American Tabloid, but am having a tough time with the other two. Ellroy is fun to read and I made it through The Cold Six Thousand just on the fumes from American Tabloid. Blood's A Rover is suffering from plotting. I'm 200 pages in and not even sure what these guys are trying to accomplish. At the moment, they're trying to infiltrate these weak-ass black power organizations and it just feels like super small stakes given the language and power of Ellroy's prose.
I'm having a hard time finding really good big novels. Started reading this Machado book Philosopher and Dog and it feels like it came from a different writer than the Alienist. Maybe it is a translator thing.
This is a Real Thing
Tony Dorsett and others showing signs of CTE.
Tony Dorsett and others showing signs of CTE.
The former Cowboys running back, now 59, said that when he took his Oct. 21 flight from Dallas to Los Angeles for testing, he repeatedly struggled to remember why he was aboard the plane and where he was going.
Such episodes, he said, are commonplace when he travels. Dorsett said he also gets lost when he drives his two youngest daughters, ages 15 and 10, to their soccer and volleyball games. "I've got to take them to places that I've been going to for many, many, many years, and then I don't know how to get there," he said.
The 1976 Heisman Trophy winner and eighth all-time leading NFL rusher said he has trouble controlling his emotions and is prone to outbursts at his wife and daughters. "It's painful, man, for my daughters to say they're scared of me." After a long pause, he tearfully reiterated, "It's painful."Another guy says he played for years and never was diagnosed for a concussion but probably suffered from 100s of them. That's right: 100s. Man, it really surprises me it didn't cross people's minds that suffering all these bell-ringing hits would have some long term consequences even without all the science. This is a problem with the way "men" handle problems, by not talking about them and being perceived as weak if they do.
The Plot Thickens
Many of the Miami players are defending Incognito and not Martin. And this former lineman explains the logic behind the various incidents. And Martin isn't talking. Also, rumor I heard on the radio was that Miami coaching staff wanted Martin to "toughen up." All very strange. Guess I should shut my trap with opinions, until the full story comes to light.
Many of the Miami players are defending Incognito and not Martin. And this former lineman explains the logic behind the various incidents. And Martin isn't talking. Also, rumor I heard on the radio was that Miami coaching staff wanted Martin to "toughen up." All very strange. Guess I should shut my trap with opinions, until the full story comes to light.
Wednesday, November 06, 2013
No Duh
Student loans could delay retirement for young grads.
How many articles can be written about how student loans affect young people's ability to buy homes, save for retirement, or just have money, in general? The math is so obvious. Any money spent on loans or interest is money not spent on other things. And one of the good things to spend money on is investments that accrue interest or value, like homes or retirement savings invested in stock. Math:
20,000 loan at 5% paid off in 10 years - total price paid: $212.13 per month = $25,455
20,000 investment at 5% in 35 years - total value: $110,320
So while it seems like that 20-25 grand is a reasonable amount, over time the value is really much more.
Student loans could delay retirement for young grads.
How many articles can be written about how student loans affect young people's ability to buy homes, save for retirement, or just have money, in general? The math is so obvious. Any money spent on loans or interest is money not spent on other things. And one of the good things to spend money on is investments that accrue interest or value, like homes or retirement savings invested in stock. Math:
20,000 loan at 5% paid off in 10 years - total price paid: $212.13 per month = $25,455
20,000 investment at 5% in 35 years - total value: $110,320
So while it seems like that 20-25 grand is a reasonable amount, over time the value is really much more.
The End of TV's Golden Age
Normally, I don't agree much with Greenwald, but he is spot-on with his analysis of The Walking Dead being the quintessential show of the moment and the symbol of the end of TVs golden age.
In the 70s, Orsen Welles lamented we were brutalizing the audience. I can only imagine what he would have thought of this particular Walking Dead sequence which I find emblematic of the show: a major character needs an amateur c-section to save a baby. The mother dies and then is murdered to avoid becoming a walker. The father goes to see the dead mother and finds a zombie with a full stomach, who has obviously eaten the mother. He kills the zombie and stabs it in the stomach multiple times. And this is the most popular show on television. Something is wrong with our society and I'm a freaking fan of violence in movies and tv...but this is just too ridiculous.
Normally, I don't agree much with Greenwald, but he is spot-on with his analysis of The Walking Dead being the quintessential show of the moment and the symbol of the end of TVs golden age.
In the 70s, Orsen Welles lamented we were brutalizing the audience. I can only imagine what he would have thought of this particular Walking Dead sequence which I find emblematic of the show: a major character needs an amateur c-section to save a baby. The mother dies and then is murdered to avoid becoming a walker. The father goes to see the dead mother and finds a zombie with a full stomach, who has obviously eaten the mother. He kills the zombie and stabs it in the stomach multiple times. And this is the most popular show on television. Something is wrong with our society and I'm a freaking fan of violence in movies and tv...but this is just too ridiculous.
The Gentleman Athlete
This article does wax nostalgic for a different type of era and different type of game. I rather like the overall attitude:
This article does wax nostalgic for a different type of era and different type of game. I rather like the overall attitude:
Instead of focusing on creating academic or athletic top dogs, our educational institutions should focus on what Baker valued above all: character. Not only is good character a worthy goal in itself, it has an additional bonus: It can lead to success. Consider the research of Angela Duckworth, a renowned social scientist, who, looking at places like the Chicago public high schools, the military’s West Point, and the Scripps National Spelling Bee, has studied the differences between those who excel and those who do not. She has found that “grit”—the persistent pursuit of a long-term goal—better predicts success than “standardized achievement test scores.” She also finds that self-control, a close cousin of grit, predicts good grades better than raw intelligence does.That said, like anything else, the gentlemanly aspect of sport can be taken too far and create soft players.
What Kind of World Do We Live In?
I already read Deadline too much as it is, but this will give me an excuse to give it up completely (I surely won't).
Nikki Finke is gone from the site she basically created from scratch, herself. Literally, this woman created THE SPOT for entertainment reporting and took down Variety and the Hollywood reporter and became one of the most influential people in town. And look: I doubt many people are 100% fans. She's caustic, editorializes, needs constant praise, and has all sorts of annoying qualities. I don't think she'd be a fun companion to be around. But she was fun to read and had an earned chip on her shoulder as any person of character might develop by being around Hollywood too much.
The people who run this site ought to be pretty ashamed, right? I mean, how do they spin this without coming across as carpet-bagging vultures? They take her creation and are now turning it into online Variety, the exact type of reporting she wanted to toss in the dustbin. Ugly world. This is the same thing as Walmart coming to town and forcing all the mom and pop shops to close down. And the only thing I really hate about this reality is the people involved with Deadline are the types who would criticize Walmart and deny what they've done as the same exact thing.
I already read Deadline too much as it is, but this will give me an excuse to give it up completely (I surely won't).
Nikki Finke is gone from the site she basically created from scratch, herself. Literally, this woman created THE SPOT for entertainment reporting and took down Variety and the Hollywood reporter and became one of the most influential people in town. And look: I doubt many people are 100% fans. She's caustic, editorializes, needs constant praise, and has all sorts of annoying qualities. I don't think she'd be a fun companion to be around. But she was fun to read and had an earned chip on her shoulder as any person of character might develop by being around Hollywood too much.
The people who run this site ought to be pretty ashamed, right? I mean, how do they spin this without coming across as carpet-bagging vultures? They take her creation and are now turning it into online Variety, the exact type of reporting she wanted to toss in the dustbin. Ugly world. This is the same thing as Walmart coming to town and forcing all the mom and pop shops to close down. And the only thing I really hate about this reality is the people involved with Deadline are the types who would criticize Walmart and deny what they've done as the same exact thing.
Tuesday, November 05, 2013
Logging
Film: The Counselor
There was no plot. There were just scenes of people talking. And I didn't want it to be over.
UPDATE: As I lay in bed last night, I thought to myself: Does Cormac McCarthy really believe we are destined for an old testament slaughter? It strikes me as the organizing principle in his notable works: No Country, Blood Meridian, The Counselor, The Road (I have yet to read the Border Trilogy). His stories are sort of centered around this very idea and the violence he displays exists in relation to this brutality. Or is this old testament stuff just an excuse to get your jollies off lopping people's heads off?
Film: The Counselor
There was no plot. There were just scenes of people talking. And I didn't want it to be over.
UPDATE: As I lay in bed last night, I thought to myself: Does Cormac McCarthy really believe we are destined for an old testament slaughter? It strikes me as the organizing principle in his notable works: No Country, Blood Meridian, The Counselor, The Road (I have yet to read the Border Trilogy). His stories are sort of centered around this very idea and the violence he displays exists in relation to this brutality. Or is this old testament stuff just an excuse to get your jollies off lopping people's heads off?
Monday, November 04, 2013
Rigging The Numbers
I wish someone had pointed this out before...when you remove car accidents and violent crime from statistics related to life expectancy in the United States, we actually have really good outcomes. And if you have cancer, you can be expected to live longer. Basically, using the metric of "broad life expectancy" takes into account factors unrelated to the healthcare system and misled our thinking that our health system is super flawed.
I wish someone had pointed this out before...when you remove car accidents and violent crime from statistics related to life expectancy in the United States, we actually have really good outcomes. And if you have cancer, you can be expected to live longer. Basically, using the metric of "broad life expectancy" takes into account factors unrelated to the healthcare system and misled our thinking that our health system is super flawed.
Asshole
Incognito (how did he get that last name) suspended from Dolphins for bullying, racist taunts, and forcing this dude to pay $15,000 for a trip to Vegas. I agree with Cowherd on this point: forcing rookies to pay for big ass dinners and trips is fucked up. Most of these guys aren't gonna last in the league and the vets know it. Forcing them to shell our major dough as a hazing process is super shitty. Good for this Martin kid for saying F-you to the Dolphins and Incognito. You know this guy can't be too soft - you don't get to the NFL being soft.
Incognito (how did he get that last name) suspended from Dolphins for bullying, racist taunts, and forcing this dude to pay $15,000 for a trip to Vegas. I agree with Cowherd on this point: forcing rookies to pay for big ass dinners and trips is fucked up. Most of these guys aren't gonna last in the league and the vets know it. Forcing them to shell our major dough as a hazing process is super shitty. Good for this Martin kid for saying F-you to the Dolphins and Incognito. You know this guy can't be too soft - you don't get to the NFL being soft.
Thursday, October 31, 2013
What Fun
A review claiming The Counselor is the worst film every made...and it makes me want to see it. Reviews are rarely fun to read. Maybe at one time, reviews were meant to discriminate for the audience how to spend their time and money. I no longer read them that way. I read them now as texts unto themselves, like accessories to outfits. This is a fun quote:
A review claiming The Counselor is the worst film every made...and it makes me want to see it. Reviews are rarely fun to read. Maybe at one time, reviews were meant to discriminate for the audience how to spend their time and money. I no longer read them that way. I read them now as texts unto themselves, like accessories to outfits. This is a fun quote:
If you eat dinner at Burger King and the food sucks, it’s disingenuous to get all mad about it. This is more like having Alice Waters and Mario Batali labor in the kitchen for a while and then serve you a gray-green burger on Wonder Bread, with what looks like somebody’s pubic hair stuck to it. But surrounded with whimsical garnishes of fresh herbs.
Narrative Lies
A new book on the Matthew Shepard hate crime case suspects the killing had more to do with a burgeoning crystal meth scene than a hate crime.
Yikes.
And Big Papi winning the World Series MVP. And everyone knows he's juicing. What a joke. I know how we can stop steroids: you get caught, your career is over. Kaput. We lock up 18 year old poor kids in jail for dealing pot, effectively throwing their lives down the toilet and we reward millionaire drug users with MVP trophies, multi-million dollar contracts, and a slap on the wrist and wink, wink, nod, nod. We're getting to a breaking point with this stuff...I think....
A new book on the Matthew Shepard hate crime case suspects the killing had more to do with a burgeoning crystal meth scene than a hate crime.
Yikes.
And Big Papi winning the World Series MVP. And everyone knows he's juicing. What a joke. I know how we can stop steroids: you get caught, your career is over. Kaput. We lock up 18 year old poor kids in jail for dealing pot, effectively throwing their lives down the toilet and we reward millionaire drug users with MVP trophies, multi-million dollar contracts, and a slap on the wrist and wink, wink, nod, nod. We're getting to a breaking point with this stuff...I think....
Heath Care
Costs are going up for some people. But of course they are -- you don't insure the uninsured for free.
Costs are going up for some people. But of course they are -- you don't insure the uninsured for free.
Wednesday, October 30, 2013
Offensive!
Blackface for Halloween.
Blackface for Halloween.
As a black man, I find myself wondering two things. First, why do I need white people to be offended on my behalf? Second and far more importantly, why should I be offended by something as trivial as a Halloween costume?
I’ve never quite understood why blackface should offend me. The act of wearing blackface does not harm me. It does not take something from me. It does not prevent me from acting upon my own judgment. It does not violate my rights. I accept that blackface offends some people. I understand that it may be distasteful. But I’m not sure why academics and journalists are so desperate to snuff blackface out of existence while ignoring or even advocating practices which actually harm black people.People get offended because you get to feel righteousness without it costing anything. A win-win.
Monday, October 28, 2013
Horrible Play Calling
Rams on the goal line at the end of a pretty good MNF game -- horrible play call on 4th down. You have a back up QB and shit receivers and you throw a fade? Huh? The fade is for 1st down or if you have Calvin Johnson.
Spread the defense and draw up the middle. Or pack the box and do a QB rollout with a run/pass option. Let someone make a play. That wasn't even close.
Rams on the goal line at the end of a pretty good MNF game -- horrible play call on 4th down. You have a back up QB and shit receivers and you throw a fade? Huh? The fade is for 1st down or if you have Calvin Johnson.
Spread the defense and draw up the middle. Or pack the box and do a QB rollout with a run/pass option. Let someone make a play. That wasn't even close.
Profits Up, Earnings Down
Yep. Profits are up because firms are cutting the fat and working people too hard. Revenue is down across the board. This is bad news.
Yep. Profits are up because firms are cutting the fat and working people too hard. Revenue is down across the board. This is bad news.
Thursday, October 24, 2013
Hard Out There For A Villain
Myanmar's villains are having trouble getting work.
I suppose we all have to agree globalization is good. And we all need to be nimble and crafty to get work. But at some point -- shouldn't we even pause to consider -- all the workers and craftsmen and various skilled laborers who lose their livings to the companies who merely aggregate data on the internet? Can I be skeptical of this system without being a Communist pinko bastard? I mean, isn't it obvious we are cannibalizing ourselves?
Myanmar's villains are having trouble getting work.
I suppose we all have to agree globalization is good. And we all need to be nimble and crafty to get work. But at some point -- shouldn't we even pause to consider -- all the workers and craftsmen and various skilled laborers who lose their livings to the companies who merely aggregate data on the internet? Can I be skeptical of this system without being a Communist pinko bastard? I mean, isn't it obvious we are cannibalizing ourselves?
Wednesday, October 23, 2013
Do Trades Work in the NFL?
I don't know. But Tony Gonzalez to the Chiefs is a good idea. If anyone could come in and fit on a team, it would be Gonzalez. And the Chiefs are at least one offensive player away from a true Super Bowl contender. But who knows? Maybe this only improves them incrementally and in the end, it will still just come down to luck.
I don't know. But Tony Gonzalez to the Chiefs is a good idea. If anyone could come in and fit on a team, it would be Gonzalez. And the Chiefs are at least one offensive player away from a true Super Bowl contender. But who knows? Maybe this only improves them incrementally and in the end, it will still just come down to luck.
Average is Over
Tyler Cowen argues we are headed towards an increasingly stratified economy. This will spell the end for democracy should it happen.
Tyler Cowen argues we are headed towards an increasingly stratified economy. This will spell the end for democracy should it happen.
Logging
TV: Masters of Sex, ep 1 and 2
I really enjoyed the 2nd episode. I commented after the first episode "this is a girl's show" and I'm probably right. I imagine the drama running out eventually. There's only so long you can string us along on this will-they or won't-they type of stuff. This is why I stopped watching Mad Men. But that said, I'll keep watching this until I get bored. The writing and characters and design of the show are quite good. I actually think I prefer it to Mad Men, at least at the moment, and maybe just because it is something new.
TV: Masters of Sex, ep 1 and 2
I really enjoyed the 2nd episode. I commented after the first episode "this is a girl's show" and I'm probably right. I imagine the drama running out eventually. There's only so long you can string us along on this will-they or won't-they type of stuff. This is why I stopped watching Mad Men. But that said, I'll keep watching this until I get bored. The writing and characters and design of the show are quite good. I actually think I prefer it to Mad Men, at least at the moment, and maybe just because it is something new.
Tuesday, October 22, 2013
Commenting on The Internet
I have the top rated comment on this internet post. Should I be worried about myself? Commenting on the internet?
I have the top rated comment on this internet post. Should I be worried about myself? Commenting on the internet?
Monday, October 21, 2013
Most Disliked Players in NFL by the Public
The list:
1. Michael Vick
2. Manti Teo
3. Suh
4. Big Ben
5. Mark Sanchez
Interesting. I diverge with the public a bit...I don't mind Vick or Big Ben...I imagine women are driving the dislike of Big Ben because of his sexual assault history. And Vick -- well -- people love dogs. Don't mess with dogs if you want to be liked. The others are interesting because clearly, they are disliked for different reasons.
Teo is disliked because he is weird and foolish. We don't like that. Suh is disliked because he is evil and out to hurt people. We don't like that. Sanchez is disliked because he is overpraised and receives undeserved accolades. We don't like that.
The list:
1. Michael Vick
2. Manti Teo
3. Suh
4. Big Ben
5. Mark Sanchez
Interesting. I diverge with the public a bit...I don't mind Vick or Big Ben...I imagine women are driving the dislike of Big Ben because of his sexual assault history. And Vick -- well -- people love dogs. Don't mess with dogs if you want to be liked. The others are interesting because clearly, they are disliked for different reasons.
Teo is disliked because he is weird and foolish. We don't like that. Suh is disliked because he is evil and out to hurt people. We don't like that. Sanchez is disliked because he is overpraised and receives undeserved accolades. We don't like that.
Awesome
Build your own car.
If you lived in a modestly trafficked area, this would be a load of fun.
Build your own car.
If you lived in a modestly trafficked area, this would be a load of fun.
NFL
Kaepernick played great yesterday, even though he threw several risky throws and got bailed out of an interception by a silly roughing the passer call. That moment changed the game. But overall, the Niners going into Tennessee and getting a convincing win was impressive. We are back to our style of football we were playing with Smith at QB and I love it.
Watched some of the Kansas City game as well. It was not as close as the final score. The Chiefs got cocky for a moment and Sean Smith let some back up receiver beat him over the top by Case Keenum. You could see this was a moment of taking the foot off the gas pedal for the Chiefs D. They also fumbled near the goal line when they were about to put the game away and then obviously kneeled it out at the 2 yard line. I'm saying the game "should" have been 24-16 at least. But who cares? They are the only 7-0 team. If they can manage to split with Denver (who is looking kinda vulnerable, especially on D), they might even take the division, which would be a huge advantage to them in the playoffs. Certainly, they are benefitting from a pretty easy schedule, but still. 7-0 is no joke, especially given a new coach, QB, and the 2-14 record from last year. And it's not like any of the wins were exactly "lucky" anyway. They've basically just beat every team so far.
Is it just me or do Peyton Manning's throws look weak? It seems like his arm strength has regressed back to last year. What's up with that? Still, Denver is the only team that can be down 22 points in the fourth quarter and I'm keeping the TV on because there is a decent chance of a comeback. Shit, when it was 30-36 and they got the ball back, I was pretty sure they were going to score and then we'd get to see if Luck could drive the Colts back. Huge bummer about Reggie Wayne. Right as I saw the play, I knew it was an ACL. Turf, right? I hate seeing that. Can a 34-year old WR return from an ACL to play in the NFL? Man...I dunno. Bummer, too because the Colts have become the most interesting team in the NFL - beating Denver, Seattle, and the Niners, but losing to Miami and the Chargers and almost losing to the Raiders.
Who do I like for the Super Bowl at this point?
Buying: Niners, Saints, Colts, Kansas City, Cincy
Selling: Denver, New England, Green Bay
Don't really see any other possible contenders...some decent teams, but no one I see winning 3-4 playoff games.
Kaepernick played great yesterday, even though he threw several risky throws and got bailed out of an interception by a silly roughing the passer call. That moment changed the game. But overall, the Niners going into Tennessee and getting a convincing win was impressive. We are back to our style of football we were playing with Smith at QB and I love it.
Watched some of the Kansas City game as well. It was not as close as the final score. The Chiefs got cocky for a moment and Sean Smith let some back up receiver beat him over the top by Case Keenum. You could see this was a moment of taking the foot off the gas pedal for the Chiefs D. They also fumbled near the goal line when they were about to put the game away and then obviously kneeled it out at the 2 yard line. I'm saying the game "should" have been 24-16 at least. But who cares? They are the only 7-0 team. If they can manage to split with Denver (who is looking kinda vulnerable, especially on D), they might even take the division, which would be a huge advantage to them in the playoffs. Certainly, they are benefitting from a pretty easy schedule, but still. 7-0 is no joke, especially given a new coach, QB, and the 2-14 record from last year. And it's not like any of the wins were exactly "lucky" anyway. They've basically just beat every team so far.
Is it just me or do Peyton Manning's throws look weak? It seems like his arm strength has regressed back to last year. What's up with that? Still, Denver is the only team that can be down 22 points in the fourth quarter and I'm keeping the TV on because there is a decent chance of a comeback. Shit, when it was 30-36 and they got the ball back, I was pretty sure they were going to score and then we'd get to see if Luck could drive the Colts back. Huge bummer about Reggie Wayne. Right as I saw the play, I knew it was an ACL. Turf, right? I hate seeing that. Can a 34-year old WR return from an ACL to play in the NFL? Man...I dunno. Bummer, too because the Colts have become the most interesting team in the NFL - beating Denver, Seattle, and the Niners, but losing to Miami and the Chargers and almost losing to the Raiders.
Who do I like for the Super Bowl at this point?
Buying: Niners, Saints, Colts, Kansas City, Cincy
Selling: Denver, New England, Green Bay
Don't really see any other possible contenders...some decent teams, but no one I see winning 3-4 playoff games.
Sunday, October 20, 2013
Redistribution
How older generations rip off the younger. Several schemes:
1. Social Security. People get more money than they put in. Why do we even have this system?
2. Low capital gains taxes. People in their 60s have five times as much wealth as those in their 30s. All those capital gains are taxed at a lower rate than the folks who are working for income. The guy has a good proposal to tax capital gains as income and lower the corporate tax rate to zero.
3. Mortgage interest deduction and any policies designed to help homeowners. He doesn't mention this one, but every cent you give to a homeowner is a cent out of the pocket of a potential homeowner. There is no way around this logic and it obviously this benefits those who own homes (ie older generations) against younger one's.
How older generations rip off the younger. Several schemes:
1. Social Security. People get more money than they put in. Why do we even have this system?
2. Low capital gains taxes. People in their 60s have five times as much wealth as those in their 30s. All those capital gains are taxed at a lower rate than the folks who are working for income. The guy has a good proposal to tax capital gains as income and lower the corporate tax rate to zero.
3. Mortgage interest deduction and any policies designed to help homeowners. He doesn't mention this one, but every cent you give to a homeowner is a cent out of the pocket of a potential homeowner. There is no way around this logic and it obviously this benefits those who own homes (ie older generations) against younger one's.
Friday, October 18, 2013
Insanity
Teenage streaker was going to be charged as an adult sex offender and instead, killed himself.
Who are these prosecutors? What the hell is wrong with them.
One of my fondest high school memories was a streaker during halftime during a huge soccer game. One of the funniest moments in all of high school. Loosen up.
Teenage streaker was going to be charged as an adult sex offender and instead, killed himself.
Who are these prosecutors? What the hell is wrong with them.
One of my fondest high school memories was a streaker during halftime during a huge soccer game. One of the funniest moments in all of high school. Loosen up.
Logging
Film: Sweetwater
A festival western starring January Jones as a vengeful whore killing her husband's murderers. The film is not good, but it also wasn't totally terrible for a small film. Ed Harris is in the movie and it is shocking how better he is than everyone else in the film. If you ever need evidence to support paying actors well, just show people this film and you can picture a world where there are only subpar actors. No one would watch a thing.
Film: Sweetwater
A festival western starring January Jones as a vengeful whore killing her husband's murderers. The film is not good, but it also wasn't totally terrible for a small film. Ed Harris is in the movie and it is shocking how better he is than everyone else in the film. If you ever need evidence to support paying actors well, just show people this film and you can picture a world where there are only subpar actors. No one would watch a thing.
For Real?
Arian Foster is going public and selling shares of his future earnings.
I don't see how this is ever is going to be a good investment.
Arian Foster is going public and selling shares of his future earnings.
I don't see how this is ever is going to be a good investment.
Thursday, October 17, 2013
Enjoy the Decline
The more the government tries to tinker with the lives of of its citizens, the more perverse incentives result.
In screenwriting, a bad fundamental idea always leads to goofy patch-work solutions. In the case of our healthcare system, there is a fundamental flaw of linking the majority of healthcare to the workplace. This worked in a specific time in America and is simply no longer relevant to the global economy. The residue, however, is nearly impossible to politically shake. A quick understanding of how Singapore created their health system and you'll understand why they spend 10-15% less of their GDP on healthcare and get better outcomes -- basically you are forced to set aside money for your family into a "health plan." When you go to the doctor, all services cost something. In addition, the government subsidizes some health services to effect the overall cost (in theory, very smart because some health services are public issues - ie flu shots, other diseases, versus acute issues like broken bones).
And here is an interesting part -- the set aside money can also be used for retirement and housing.
It can easily be said this type of thing can only work in a small country versus a big, diverse one. But if I'm the state of Oregon or North Carolina -- why do I not consider trying something like this?
The more the government tries to tinker with the lives of of its citizens, the more perverse incentives result.
In screenwriting, a bad fundamental idea always leads to goofy patch-work solutions. In the case of our healthcare system, there is a fundamental flaw of linking the majority of healthcare to the workplace. This worked in a specific time in America and is simply no longer relevant to the global economy. The residue, however, is nearly impossible to politically shake. A quick understanding of how Singapore created their health system and you'll understand why they spend 10-15% less of their GDP on healthcare and get better outcomes -- basically you are forced to set aside money for your family into a "health plan." When you go to the doctor, all services cost something. In addition, the government subsidizes some health services to effect the overall cost (in theory, very smart because some health services are public issues - ie flu shots, other diseases, versus acute issues like broken bones).
And here is an interesting part -- the set aside money can also be used for retirement and housing.
It can easily be said this type of thing can only work in a small country versus a big, diverse one. But if I'm the state of Oregon or North Carolina -- why do I not consider trying something like this?
Tuesday, October 15, 2013
Doing Well
People born in the 1930s and 1940s made significantly more money that people born in the 1950s and 1960s.
I'm sure there are many reasons for this, among them, luck. Should we redistribute? Why not?
My advice would be to follow the habits of the people from the 30s and 40s.
People born in the 1930s and 1940s made significantly more money that people born in the 1950s and 1960s.
I'm sure there are many reasons for this, among them, luck. Should we redistribute? Why not?
My advice would be to follow the habits of the people from the 30s and 40s.
Logging
Novella: The Alienist by Machado de Assis
In a mere 84 pages, this guy immediately became one of my favorite writers. I can't believe he was writing in the late 1800s. His style is incredibly modern. The little book was part Confederacy of Dunces, part Bolano (Bolano wishes he could write like this guy), part Woody Allen. Hilarity. I loved it.
This is the series of novellas recently republished -- all by terrific writers. Great little project.
Novella: The Alienist by Machado de Assis
In a mere 84 pages, this guy immediately became one of my favorite writers. I can't believe he was writing in the late 1800s. His style is incredibly modern. The little book was part Confederacy of Dunces, part Bolano (Bolano wishes he could write like this guy), part Woody Allen. Hilarity. I loved it.
This is the series of novellas recently republished -- all by terrific writers. Great little project.
Logging
TV: Broadchurch
This was one of the better executed mysteries of the four I've watched recently: Top of the Lake, The Killing, Prisoners, and Broadchurch. Somehow, it got more compelling toward the end. The mystery was only the plot engine, it was really a social examination of small town life in the UK. I imagine many American audiences will find it a tad boring. BBC, after all. But if you like just straight ahead mystery stories, this one does the form quite well.
TV: Broadchurch
This was one of the better executed mysteries of the four I've watched recently: Top of the Lake, The Killing, Prisoners, and Broadchurch. Somehow, it got more compelling toward the end. The mystery was only the plot engine, it was really a social examination of small town life in the UK. I imagine many American audiences will find it a tad boring. BBC, after all. But if you like just straight ahead mystery stories, this one does the form quite well.
Not Working
When do they decide and scrap the Obamacare website for another year?
If this was such important legislation, you'd a thunk they could figure out how to make the system work. This isn't brain surgery. My car insurance is incredible simple to purchase. When I get healthcare through my employer, it is just a straight sign up. Obama is making Republican opposition look prescient - something they can't do for themselves.
When do they decide and scrap the Obamacare website for another year?
If this was such important legislation, you'd a thunk they could figure out how to make the system work. This isn't brain surgery. My car insurance is incredible simple to purchase. When I get healthcare through my employer, it is just a straight sign up. Obama is making Republican opposition look prescient - something they can't do for themselves.
Sunday, October 13, 2013
Logging
Film: Captain Phillips
I was surprised I didn't enjoy this film more. It started well and did a clever thing with the first act break, separating the pirate attack into two separate events (this was probably based in reality, not so much cleverness on the filmmakers part). As a side note, so often "real life stories" are able to do more interesting narrative things since the audience will "buy" odd storytelling techniques because it adheres to real life. An easy example is bringing in major characters very late into the movie, which Captain Phillips does. But anyhow, after the movie gets onto the lifeboat, it got repetitive and frankly, a little boring. Too procedural. And I couldn't help but a feel like the whole thing was this immense waste of resources. How about you just put a machine gun or a rocket launcher on the cargo ship to ward off little pirate skiffs? Do we really need a battleship, an aircraft carrier, and a team of Navy Seals flown in from Virginia to handle four fisherman?
Anyhow, towards the end, I was just hoping the movie was going to end and this is never a good sign. Although in fairness, it was a late Friday night show and I get tired at that time.
Film: Captain Phillips
I was surprised I didn't enjoy this film more. It started well and did a clever thing with the first act break, separating the pirate attack into two separate events (this was probably based in reality, not so much cleverness on the filmmakers part). As a side note, so often "real life stories" are able to do more interesting narrative things since the audience will "buy" odd storytelling techniques because it adheres to real life. An easy example is bringing in major characters very late into the movie, which Captain Phillips does. But anyhow, after the movie gets onto the lifeboat, it got repetitive and frankly, a little boring. Too procedural. And I couldn't help but a feel like the whole thing was this immense waste of resources. How about you just put a machine gun or a rocket launcher on the cargo ship to ward off little pirate skiffs? Do we really need a battleship, an aircraft carrier, and a team of Navy Seals flown in from Virginia to handle four fisherman?
Anyhow, towards the end, I was just hoping the movie was going to end and this is never a good sign. Although in fairness, it was a late Friday night show and I get tired at that time.
Friday, October 11, 2013
No Longer A Story
Facebook does not allow you to remove yourself from search. I suppose we just need to come to terms with the idea that all google and facebook searches and information can and will be viewed by those powerful enough to access it.
Facebook does not allow you to remove yourself from search. I suppose we just need to come to terms with the idea that all google and facebook searches and information can and will be viewed by those powerful enough to access it.
Logging
Book: David and Goliath: Underdogs, Misfits, and the Art of Battling Giants
Much like his others, the original premise is quite interesting and the book gets progressively less interesting by the end. Perhaps because the argument is so convincing early on. To me, it could have been 100 pages just as well as 280.
Film: Key Largo
John Huston does a hell of job with ensembles.
Book: David and Goliath: Underdogs, Misfits, and the Art of Battling Giants
Much like his others, the original premise is quite interesting and the book gets progressively less interesting by the end. Perhaps because the argument is so convincing early on. To me, it could have been 100 pages just as well as 280.
Film: Key Largo
John Huston does a hell of job with ensembles.
Wednesday, October 09, 2013
Soul Mates
Are made, not found.
When someone talks of finding a soul mate, I know I'm talking to a moron.
Are made, not found.
When someone talks of finding a soul mate, I know I'm talking to a moron.
Save Your Cash
"America needs a stock market crash."
In our current climate, it is very possible. If you are young, the best thing to do is save your cash and buy after it crashes. If you are old, you should have a significant portion of your money outside of stocks.
I've come around to the idea there are only two ways to smartly buy stocks: on a regular dollar-cost-averaging basis and/or when they are ridiculously low and you can't possibly lose money in the long run. All other retail purchases are speculative. Hoard cash for the once every five to ten years when stocks go super low because that's the only time to buy.
"America needs a stock market crash."
In our current climate, it is very possible. If you are young, the best thing to do is save your cash and buy after it crashes. If you are old, you should have a significant portion of your money outside of stocks.
I've come around to the idea there are only two ways to smartly buy stocks: on a regular dollar-cost-averaging basis and/or when they are ridiculously low and you can't possibly lose money in the long run. All other retail purchases are speculative. Hoard cash for the once every five to ten years when stocks go super low because that's the only time to buy.
Tuesday, October 08, 2013
"Save Your Money"
My history of jazz teacher in college would tell us everyday as we left class "Save your money! Save your money!" One of better lessons I learned. I guess Curt Schilling didn't take his class.
Poor guy blew every cent he earned playing bball on a video game company. A video game company! Jesus.
My history of jazz teacher in college would tell us everyday as we left class "Save your money! Save your money!" One of better lessons I learned. I guess Curt Schilling didn't take his class.
Poor guy blew every cent he earned playing bball on a video game company. A video game company! Jesus.
Sunday, October 06, 2013
Waiting Tables
"I remember when you could pay your way through college waiting tables."
Equality of opportunity depends on having a system where someone can get a college degree debt-free if they want to work for it.
"I remember when you could pay your way through college waiting tables."
Equality of opportunity depends on having a system where someone can get a college degree debt-free if they want to work for it.
Logging
Film: Gravity
A great reason to see 3D IMAX. Rather enjoy the design of the film - a small genre piece about an astronaut getting home - done as a spectacular formal spectacle. Is this a film or a ride? There are certainly a few emotional moments, but the reason you watch the movie is for the shots, the action, the movement of the floating camera. I can't say the narrative is anything other than a vehicle to deliver the images. I suppose this is what makes it a good and not great film. In some ways, it is a technical experiment. This is not a criticism. Curon is moving the cinema forward. He is making a spectacle that is not a stupid comic book for nerds. A film unquestionably worth seeing in the theater. Bravo.
Film: Gravity
A great reason to see 3D IMAX. Rather enjoy the design of the film - a small genre piece about an astronaut getting home - done as a spectacular formal spectacle. Is this a film or a ride? There are certainly a few emotional moments, but the reason you watch the movie is for the shots, the action, the movement of the floating camera. I can't say the narrative is anything other than a vehicle to deliver the images. I suppose this is what makes it a good and not great film. In some ways, it is a technical experiment. This is not a criticism. Curon is moving the cinema forward. He is making a spectacle that is not a stupid comic book for nerds. A film unquestionably worth seeing in the theater. Bravo.
Saturday, October 05, 2013
Fascinating Guy
The Vietnamese General who defeated the French and the United States died today. He didn't even have a military background.
The Vietnamese General who defeated the French and the United States died today. He didn't even have a military background.
Thursday, October 03, 2013
Two Nations Under Mammon
Ouch.
Ouch.
But there is currently no major figure in the public sphere that sees with any clarity the deep collusion of the all key players in its construction. So we continue down a road that will give rise to two nations, the winners wringing their hands all the way to the bank, the losers narcotized on a steady diet of cheap and deforming delights.
True
Vic Fangio jokes quarterbacks should be the ones getting fined for big hits.
In soccer, they are called "hospital balls," when you play a guy a ball that sets him up to go to the hospital. I was just watching Bills/Browns and EJ Manual tossed a ball to a receiver going over the middle on 3rd down, just lining him up to be drilled by a linebacker.
These flags on illegal hits are getting ridiculous. If you have any common sense and watch the speed of the game, you can't possibly expect these guys to make the plays and then pull back on those last 1/2 seconds. And if your QB throws a dangerous ball, why do you punish the defenders?
Vic Fangio jokes quarterbacks should be the ones getting fined for big hits.
In soccer, they are called "hospital balls," when you play a guy a ball that sets him up to go to the hospital. I was just watching Bills/Browns and EJ Manual tossed a ball to a receiver going over the middle on 3rd down, just lining him up to be drilled by a linebacker.
These flags on illegal hits are getting ridiculous. If you have any common sense and watch the speed of the game, you can't possibly expect these guys to make the plays and then pull back on those last 1/2 seconds. And if your QB throws a dangerous ball, why do you punish the defenders?
Wednesday, October 02, 2013
Logging
TV: Re-watching Deadwood Season 1
Enjoying quite a bit. Really enjoy how everyone - even allies - are continually at each other's throats, running schemes, and at times, overcome with moral behavior. Quite enjoy the humor as well. EB makes a side comment when Calamity Jane is going to talk to Alma Garrett something along the lines of "that foul-mouthed heathen going upstairs to converse with the junkie -- must be a conversation for the ages."
TV: Re-watching Deadwood Season 1
Enjoying quite a bit. Really enjoy how everyone - even allies - are continually at each other's throats, running schemes, and at times, overcome with moral behavior. Quite enjoy the humor as well. EB makes a side comment when Calamity Jane is going to talk to Alma Garrett something along the lines of "that foul-mouthed heathen going upstairs to converse with the junkie -- must be a conversation for the ages."
Tuesday, October 01, 2013
Breaking Bad Death Dream...
...waaah? A theory the end of Breaking Bad was a Walter White death dream. Ahh...no. Not even close. Taxi Driver makes a whole lot more sense as a death dream ending and even that is debatable. There is no indication or suggestion Breaking Bad was meant this way. I suppose it means Walter had a death dream about Jesse having a dream. It's just hard to end TV shows because TV shows are not designed to end.
On Bill Simmon's podcast the other week, Cousin Sal makes a funny point about the Sopranos finale, which is now the standard bearer for "artistic" endings. He says "how can an ending be considered successful, when 70% of their audience thought their TV power went out?" He makes a fair point.
...waaah? A theory the end of Breaking Bad was a Walter White death dream. Ahh...no. Not even close. Taxi Driver makes a whole lot more sense as a death dream ending and even that is debatable. There is no indication or suggestion Breaking Bad was meant this way. I suppose it means Walter had a death dream about Jesse having a dream. It's just hard to end TV shows because TV shows are not designed to end.
On Bill Simmon's podcast the other week, Cousin Sal makes a funny point about the Sopranos finale, which is now the standard bearer for "artistic" endings. He says "how can an ending be considered successful, when 70% of their audience thought their TV power went out?" He makes a fair point.
Jordan
I actually appreciate the entertainment factor of Michael Jordan's pettiness. He claims he could beat LeBron one on one and Kobe steals all his moves. Awesome.
How good was Jerry West? He was before my time, but when asked who Jordan would want to play one-on-one, his mind goes to Jerry West first. Interesting.
I actually appreciate the entertainment factor of Michael Jordan's pettiness. He claims he could beat LeBron one on one and Kobe steals all his moves. Awesome.
How good was Jerry West? He was before my time, but when asked who Jordan would want to play one-on-one, his mind goes to Jerry West first. Interesting.
Monday, September 30, 2013
Breaking Bad Finale
Final episodes are tough. Felt like 45 minutes of set up and then one pretty good scene. On my Breaking Bad pool, I correctly predicted every single death and every single survivor, but was wrong about who-killed-who. I predicted Walt would kill Todd, but should have seen it coming that it would be Jesse. I predicted Jack would kill Walt and got that wrong.
Overall, a pretty damn good final season of TV. I think it is easy to get hyperbolic about these things and worry too much about what is the best TV show of all time, etc. Who cares? Lists, lists, lists. Enough already. It's just a goddamn TV show.
Final episodes are tough. Felt like 45 minutes of set up and then one pretty good scene. On my Breaking Bad pool, I correctly predicted every single death and every single survivor, but was wrong about who-killed-who. I predicted Walt would kill Todd, but should have seen it coming that it would be Jesse. I predicted Jack would kill Walt and got that wrong.
Overall, a pretty damn good final season of TV. I think it is easy to get hyperbolic about these things and worry too much about what is the best TV show of all time, etc. Who cares? Lists, lists, lists. Enough already. It's just a goddamn TV show.
Seymour Hersh
The Bin Laden raid story is one big lie.
Hmmm. And this:
The Bin Laden raid story is one big lie.
Hmmm. And this:
“It’s pathetic, they are more than obsequious,” Hersh said of the American media. “They are afraid to pick on this guy (Obama).”
"It used to be when you were in a situation when something very dramatic happened, the president and the minions around the president had control of the narrative, you would pretty much know they would do the best they could to tell the story straight,” he said.
“Now that doesn't happen anymore. Now they take advantage of something like that and they work out how to re-elect the president.”
Friday, September 27, 2013
Logging
Film: Drug War
Maybe my expectations were a bit high. "The French Connection meets the Wire." "Better than anything Michael Mann's done in years." These were my primers going in. The film was okay. There was some spectacular action sequences, but nothing that tops Michael Mann's work. More similar to John Woo. The film was ridiculously complicated and lacked the verisimilitude of French Connection or the Wire. This was stylized. Anyhow, a disappointment given my high expectations.
Film: Drug War
Maybe my expectations were a bit high. "The French Connection meets the Wire." "Better than anything Michael Mann's done in years." These were my primers going in. The film was okay. There was some spectacular action sequences, but nothing that tops Michael Mann's work. More similar to John Woo. The film was ridiculously complicated and lacked the verisimilitude of French Connection or the Wire. This was stylized. Anyhow, a disappointment given my high expectations.
Are The Niners Back?
I'd hardly say so. The Rams are terrible and the Niners couldn't hardly get a first down in the first half. If Gore doesn't break that 4th and inches, it is 7-3 or 10-3 at halftime. Getting up 14-3 was huge and then we put the game away nicely in the 2nd half. You can't make too much of Thursday games, but the game plan finally matched our talent. We kept Kaepernick on training wheels, which is still where he needs to be. Still, he pressed some passes and the guy is easy to read, he just stares at receivers and doesn't know what the defense is doing. He still runs when there is an easy slot pass available. I don't like he's always barking at the other team and getting in little shit-talk sessions. I don't like how he can't read the defense and I don't like how he winds up and takes too long to throw.
Still, this is how we need to play: run to set up the pass. Get ourselves into 3rd and short situations when we can roll Kaepernick out and utilize his legs. Long drives.
I'd hardly say so. The Rams are terrible and the Niners couldn't hardly get a first down in the first half. If Gore doesn't break that 4th and inches, it is 7-3 or 10-3 at halftime. Getting up 14-3 was huge and then we put the game away nicely in the 2nd half. You can't make too much of Thursday games, but the game plan finally matched our talent. We kept Kaepernick on training wheels, which is still where he needs to be. Still, he pressed some passes and the guy is easy to read, he just stares at receivers and doesn't know what the defense is doing. He still runs when there is an easy slot pass available. I don't like he's always barking at the other team and getting in little shit-talk sessions. I don't like how he can't read the defense and I don't like how he winds up and takes too long to throw.
Still, this is how we need to play: run to set up the pass. Get ourselves into 3rd and short situations when we can roll Kaepernick out and utilize his legs. Long drives.
Tuesday, September 24, 2013
Maybe
A retort to the idea that technology is killing jobs and the middle class. Perhaps government regulations and insider-scheming are causing joblessness. But either way, something is amiss in America today -- fewer adults are working and in particular, way fewer men are working than in the past. I don't think it is a good thing.
A retort to the idea that technology is killing jobs and the middle class. Perhaps government regulations and insider-scheming are causing joblessness. But either way, something is amiss in America today -- fewer adults are working and in particular, way fewer men are working than in the past. I don't think it is a good thing.
AMEN!
The first sports column I've read which addresses the faulty decision the Niners made at QB.
Imagine what the Niners could have gotten for Kaepernick if we traded him at the end of the year instead of Smith. Or, hell, just keep him as a talented back up.
The first sports column I've read which addresses the faulty decision the Niners made at QB.
Imagine what the Niners could have gotten for Kaepernick if we traded him at the end of the year instead of Smith. Or, hell, just keep him as a talented back up.
Window Closed
Perhaps this is an overreaction, but just like that, it seems like the window has closed on the 49ers. I don't see how they (or anyone else) gets through Seattle this year. I don't see our team getting better in the next couple years. Four of our best players: Frank Gore, Justin Smith, Vernon Davis, and Patrick Willis are in their prime or past their prime. We will not be able to replace those guys with equal quality players. Our young "stars" are erratic and not personalities to build a team around: Kaepernick, Crabtree, and Aldon Smith. Perhaps our offensive line will remain potent, but they haven't looked good the last two weeks. And I heard an announcer say the other day "Quarterbacks make offensive lines, not the other way around." I fear he might be right.
We have no Steve Young to transition to. We have no Jerry Rice to bridge the legacy. We have no young Bryant Young on defense. We have Willis, who is the heart of the team, but we are lacking a head. When we were great, we had Ronnie Lott as the heart and Joe Montana as the head.
We have lost our identity. We tried to be something else by bringing in Kaepernick and the team is breaking around it. I see a few flashy wins and a lot of frustrating losses. 8-8, 9-7 this year. Could even miss the playoffs.
Perhaps this is an overreaction, but just like that, it seems like the window has closed on the 49ers. I don't see how they (or anyone else) gets through Seattle this year. I don't see our team getting better in the next couple years. Four of our best players: Frank Gore, Justin Smith, Vernon Davis, and Patrick Willis are in their prime or past their prime. We will not be able to replace those guys with equal quality players. Our young "stars" are erratic and not personalities to build a team around: Kaepernick, Crabtree, and Aldon Smith. Perhaps our offensive line will remain potent, but they haven't looked good the last two weeks. And I heard an announcer say the other day "Quarterbacks make offensive lines, not the other way around." I fear he might be right.
We have no Steve Young to transition to. We have no Jerry Rice to bridge the legacy. We have no young Bryant Young on defense. We have Willis, who is the heart of the team, but we are lacking a head. When we were great, we had Ronnie Lott as the heart and Joe Montana as the head.
We have lost our identity. We tried to be something else by bringing in Kaepernick and the team is breaking around it. I see a few flashy wins and a lot of frustrating losses. 8-8, 9-7 this year. Could even miss the playoffs.
Monday, September 23, 2013
Ceilings and It's Not Kaepernick's Fault
The sports media is a joke and utterly biased by highlights.
Nearly every dumbass article about the Niners cite the fact that "it isn't all Kaepernick's fault" and the receivers stink. No one offered this explanation for our glamor-less offensive during Alex Smith's reign when our record was 19-5 and we never lost by double-digits. Why is everyone pointing it out now? No one pointed it out during the Giant's game when we were down to two receivers. Unbelievable.
And if I hear one more person talk about offensive "ceilings," I'm going to vomit. Who cares about "ceilings?" So what if in a perfect world an offense "could" score a lot of points. I'm more concerned about what happens in an actual game with actual opponents and actual situations than some metaphysical notion of possibility. This guy on a podcast I listened to this morning talked about how the Chiefs offense didn't have a high ceiling and this would hurt them. Really? How so? They are 3-0. And guess who has a high ceiling: The Eagles offense. The same offense that make 5 turnovers and just got their ass kicked at home by the Chiefs. Then, the guys point out the Eagles made 5 turnovers and the Chiefs had zero and they "only" won by 10 points....as if the two had no relation to one another...
So dumb. It is as if they don't consider the idea of risk. The Eagles offense is high risk. So yes, the ceiling is high, but so is the floor.
Man, I'd love to get in a room and sell speculative real estate investments to all this idiots who talk about high ceilings. I can see them throwing their retirement savings into dumbass investments all over the place.
The sports media is a joke and utterly biased by highlights.
Nearly every dumbass article about the Niners cite the fact that "it isn't all Kaepernick's fault" and the receivers stink. No one offered this explanation for our glamor-less offensive during Alex Smith's reign when our record was 19-5 and we never lost by double-digits. Why is everyone pointing it out now? No one pointed it out during the Giant's game when we were down to two receivers. Unbelievable.
And if I hear one more person talk about offensive "ceilings," I'm going to vomit. Who cares about "ceilings?" So what if in a perfect world an offense "could" score a lot of points. I'm more concerned about what happens in an actual game with actual opponents and actual situations than some metaphysical notion of possibility. This guy on a podcast I listened to this morning talked about how the Chiefs offense didn't have a high ceiling and this would hurt them. Really? How so? They are 3-0. And guess who has a high ceiling: The Eagles offense. The same offense that make 5 turnovers and just got their ass kicked at home by the Chiefs. Then, the guys point out the Eagles made 5 turnovers and the Chiefs had zero and they "only" won by 10 points....as if the two had no relation to one another...
So dumb. It is as if they don't consider the idea of risk. The Eagles offense is high risk. So yes, the ceiling is high, but so is the floor.
Man, I'd love to get in a room and sell speculative real estate investments to all this idiots who talk about high ceilings. I can see them throwing their retirement savings into dumbass investments all over the place.
Sunday, September 22, 2013
Saturday, September 21, 2013
Logging
Film: Prisoners
A good but not great film. Quite a lot of tension and chills. I'm disposed to like these kind of mysteries. People are all talking about Hugh Jackman's rageful performance and he is good, but performance-wise, I was most impressed with Gyllenhaal. I'm not sure I've liked him in any movie since Donnie Darko. He was the one sore spot in Zodiac. But he tries something different in this film and I thought it worked. Plus, the calm detective is a tougher role to bring emotion to than the raging father.
Not that it ruins the movie, but I knew basically what had happened around the midpoint, the result of seeing too many mysteries. I can claim credit for also predicting the Killing season 3 and the two major twists in Top of the Lake. My fiance is impressed, anyway. (The Secrets in their Eyes is a recent mystery I didn't see coming). Still, the ultimate resolution of the crime and the "why" of the crime was not as satisfying as the great films of this genre. And the movie is overly long. I wasn't sitting in my seat hoping it would end, but the steam started to come out right around the 4th act (yes, there are 4-5 acts). Gyllenhaal's 3rd act realization was a tad hackneyed, a version of putting a glass over a picture in order to focus-in, the type of happenstance that only would happen in movies.
But these are minor quibbles. I wish this movie well because I'd love it if there were more like it.
My final note is that Silence of the Lambs set the bar so high for the mystery thriller, it has almost ruined the genre. I'm almost not sure where the genre can go. The most interesting post-Lambs serial killer film is Zodiac, but that film is more a procedural and the impact of the crimes on the people involved and less about the "why" or "who" of the crime. Se7en was a bit hit and a good film, but I'd call it an anomaly. Se7en is so close to being a terrible movie, it really is a miracle it works.
Film: Prisoners
A good but not great film. Quite a lot of tension and chills. I'm disposed to like these kind of mysteries. People are all talking about Hugh Jackman's rageful performance and he is good, but performance-wise, I was most impressed with Gyllenhaal. I'm not sure I've liked him in any movie since Donnie Darko. He was the one sore spot in Zodiac. But he tries something different in this film and I thought it worked. Plus, the calm detective is a tougher role to bring emotion to than the raging father.
Not that it ruins the movie, but I knew basically what had happened around the midpoint, the result of seeing too many mysteries. I can claim credit for also predicting the Killing season 3 and the two major twists in Top of the Lake. My fiance is impressed, anyway. (The Secrets in their Eyes is a recent mystery I didn't see coming). Still, the ultimate resolution of the crime and the "why" of the crime was not as satisfying as the great films of this genre. And the movie is overly long. I wasn't sitting in my seat hoping it would end, but the steam started to come out right around the 4th act (yes, there are 4-5 acts). Gyllenhaal's 3rd act realization was a tad hackneyed, a version of putting a glass over a picture in order to focus-in, the type of happenstance that only would happen in movies.
But these are minor quibbles. I wish this movie well because I'd love it if there were more like it.
My final note is that Silence of the Lambs set the bar so high for the mystery thriller, it has almost ruined the genre. I'm almost not sure where the genre can go. The most interesting post-Lambs serial killer film is Zodiac, but that film is more a procedural and the impact of the crimes on the people involved and less about the "why" or "who" of the crime. Se7en was a bit hit and a good film, but I'd call it an anomaly. Se7en is so close to being a terrible movie, it really is a miracle it works.
Friday, September 20, 2013
Good Article
I think a lot of people will relate to this. A very pessimistic view of the future for the US.
I think a lot of people will relate to this. A very pessimistic view of the future for the US.
Agreed
Reports Obama only reads The New York Times. I'd hope anyone, and certainly the President, read more than one newspaper.
Reports Obama only reads The New York Times. I'd hope anyone, and certainly the President, read more than one newspaper.
2-16-16
The Chiefs are 3-0 and 2-16-16 is the amount of points they've allowed in each game. Sixteen points each for the Cowboys and Eagles, two of the most explosive offenses in the NFL. How are they slowing these guys down? Is their defense that good? Maybe. But perhaps there is another factor: Alex Smith.
Do you watch the drives? Nothing flashy. No mistakes. Make a couple of first downs, chew up clock. Play for field position. Get your defense rest. Don't let the Eagles run a ton of plays. In fact, if you discount the long McCoy run, they could have held the Eagles to single digits.
Counting the playoffs, in the last three years, here is Smith's record as a starter:
13-3
1-1
6-2
3-0
23-6 (win percent 79%)
Perhaps he had elite defenses, but Kansas City had similar guys last year and they were 2-14 and gave up about 25 points a game. This year, they are 3-0 and giving up around 11 points a game. And it's not like Andy Reid is known as a defensive coach.
**Side note: Kaepernick and the Niners since Alex Smith left:
5-2-1
2-1
1-1
7-4-1 (win percent 58%)
Smith has developed into a quarterback who knows how to win. He has crafted himself into the anti-Brett Favre. He is not flashy, does not make spectacular plays, and does not take risks. There is a problem with this style -- they will have trouble coming from behind to win. But you know what? They don't fall behind very often or by very much. Smith knows what he is doing at the line of scrimmage. He knows what the defense is trying to do and runs plays that give his offense just a slight advantage. That's why they reel off so many 4-5-6-7 yard runs.
There is an old adage: if it ain't broken, don't fix it. The Niners were 13-3 and a couple fumbled punt returns from the Super Bowl. I still think we made a mistake ditching Smith for Kaepernick. I know Kap brings some things Smith doesn't, but no one pays any attention to think things Smith does that Kap doesn't. And perhaps one of the best arguments for Kap over Smith is how much future upside he brings to the franchise -- but look at Seattle. That team is a juggernaut now. We can't really play with them, certainly on their field. Justin Smith and Frank Gore are getting old and our team will not be the same without them. I'm just not sure what the future holds and I'm not convinced Kaepernick will be elite in the way Peyton Manning or Brady or Brees or Rodgers is elite, and so I still don't understand what the move was truly about.
Let me put it another way: you either have an elite quarterback (who makes your team automatically good) or you don't. If you don't have an elite qb, you want a qb who can play to your teams strengths and not lose games for you. Smith developed into this type of quarterback - perhaps one of the best in the league. I think Eli Manning, Joe Flacco, and a few others fall into this same category. The only elite QBs are really Peyton, Brees, Brady, and Rodgers.
The Chiefs are 3-0 and 2-16-16 is the amount of points they've allowed in each game. Sixteen points each for the Cowboys and Eagles, two of the most explosive offenses in the NFL. How are they slowing these guys down? Is their defense that good? Maybe. But perhaps there is another factor: Alex Smith.
Do you watch the drives? Nothing flashy. No mistakes. Make a couple of first downs, chew up clock. Play for field position. Get your defense rest. Don't let the Eagles run a ton of plays. In fact, if you discount the long McCoy run, they could have held the Eagles to single digits.
Counting the playoffs, in the last three years, here is Smith's record as a starter:
13-3
1-1
6-2
3-0
23-6 (win percent 79%)
Perhaps he had elite defenses, but Kansas City had similar guys last year and they were 2-14 and gave up about 25 points a game. This year, they are 3-0 and giving up around 11 points a game. And it's not like Andy Reid is known as a defensive coach.
**Side note: Kaepernick and the Niners since Alex Smith left:
5-2-1
2-1
1-1
7-4-1 (win percent 58%)
Smith has developed into a quarterback who knows how to win. He has crafted himself into the anti-Brett Favre. He is not flashy, does not make spectacular plays, and does not take risks. There is a problem with this style -- they will have trouble coming from behind to win. But you know what? They don't fall behind very often or by very much. Smith knows what he is doing at the line of scrimmage. He knows what the defense is trying to do and runs plays that give his offense just a slight advantage. That's why they reel off so many 4-5-6-7 yard runs.
There is an old adage: if it ain't broken, don't fix it. The Niners were 13-3 and a couple fumbled punt returns from the Super Bowl. I still think we made a mistake ditching Smith for Kaepernick. I know Kap brings some things Smith doesn't, but no one pays any attention to think things Smith does that Kap doesn't. And perhaps one of the best arguments for Kap over Smith is how much future upside he brings to the franchise -- but look at Seattle. That team is a juggernaut now. We can't really play with them, certainly on their field. Justin Smith and Frank Gore are getting old and our team will not be the same without them. I'm just not sure what the future holds and I'm not convinced Kaepernick will be elite in the way Peyton Manning or Brady or Brees or Rodgers is elite, and so I still don't understand what the move was truly about.
Let me put it another way: you either have an elite quarterback (who makes your team automatically good) or you don't. If you don't have an elite qb, you want a qb who can play to your teams strengths and not lose games for you. Smith developed into this type of quarterback - perhaps one of the best in the league. I think Eli Manning, Joe Flacco, and a few others fall into this same category. The only elite QBs are really Peyton, Brees, Brady, and Rodgers.
Thursday, September 19, 2013
Libertarian Agenda
First on my libertarian political agenda is to imitate this new Sweedish policy:
First on my libertarian political agenda is to imitate this new Sweedish policy:
SWEDEN: IT’S ‘OK’ TO MASTURBATE IN PUBLIC: Didn’t “target a specific person,” or just horrible aim? A Swedish man charged with sexual assault for masturbating on a beach in Stockholm was acquitted after a court ruled the act was not “directed towards one or more people.” The 65-year-old Swede in question was caught with his pants around his ankles, pleasuring himself near the water’s edge in June. Thanks to this monumental ruling, Swedes can pleasure themselves in public so long as they’re somewhat discreet about it. “With that we can conclude that it is okay to masturbate on the beach,” the prosecutor declared. But don’t get too carried away on the shores of Stockholm: “disorderly conduct” charges may still apply.
You Don't Say
Insiders reaping profit after drafting the Obamacare law.
Whatever your politics, this whole idea that "nobody understands the law" is a pretty good indication the policy is destined to be lousy.
Insiders reaping profit after drafting the Obamacare law.
Whatever your politics, this whole idea that "nobody understands the law" is a pretty good indication the policy is destined to be lousy.
Tuesday, September 17, 2013
Logging
Film: The Year of Living Dangerously
I love this kind of sprawling, political dramas. Reminded me of The Killing Fields. Who said the 80s were lousy for movies? In the entire 2000s, I can't think of a sprawling political drama that engages with questions of great moral weight. The English Patient comes to mind, but that was so long ago now. Sigourney Weaver plays a hot British spy, a nice turn for her. Another Mel Gibson movie before he became a huge star - he did quite a few.
Film: The Year of Living Dangerously
I love this kind of sprawling, political dramas. Reminded me of The Killing Fields. Who said the 80s were lousy for movies? In the entire 2000s, I can't think of a sprawling political drama that engages with questions of great moral weight. The English Patient comes to mind, but that was so long ago now. Sigourney Weaver plays a hot British spy, a nice turn for her. Another Mel Gibson movie before he became a huge star - he did quite a few.
Saturday, September 14, 2013
I'm Becoming More Libertarian By The Day
CBS uncovers "unregulated" dinner parties, ie underground supper clubs.
Oh yeah, this is really something government ought to be involved with.
And George Will on his libertarian evolution. "Too many barnacles on the ship."
CBS uncovers "unregulated" dinner parties, ie underground supper clubs.
Oh yeah, this is really something government ought to be involved with.
And George Will on his libertarian evolution. "Too many barnacles on the ship."
Friday, September 13, 2013
Logging
Film: Blue Jasmine
Woody Allen gets away with a lot more than other filmmakers. Is it the track record? Or skill? In Blue Jasmine, people fall in and out of love more quickly than they change their clothes. I don't really buy it in a real-world dramatic sense. But I suppose I go with it in the whimsical Woody Allen world. I see this clearer now that I've written (or, tried writing) characters who fall in love.
I feel like people didn't like this movie much, but I actually found the Cate Blanchett character to be pretty interesting. Structure-wise and other character-wise, there was nothing innovative or special, but the movie can stand alone as a character study. Well worth a $6.50 matinee at the big screen at the Los Feliz 3 theater.
Film: Blue Jasmine
Woody Allen gets away with a lot more than other filmmakers. Is it the track record? Or skill? In Blue Jasmine, people fall in and out of love more quickly than they change their clothes. I don't really buy it in a real-world dramatic sense. But I suppose I go with it in the whimsical Woody Allen world. I see this clearer now that I've written (or, tried writing) characters who fall in love.
I feel like people didn't like this movie much, but I actually found the Cate Blanchett character to be pretty interesting. Structure-wise and other character-wise, there was nothing innovative or special, but the movie can stand alone as a character study. Well worth a $6.50 matinee at the big screen at the Los Feliz 3 theater.
Thursday, September 12, 2013
Great Quote
Grantland's pop culture round up.
Grantland's pop culture round up.
Backdoor Teen Mom Farrah Abraham a Feminist? "I'm pretty feminine I think so." The Miami New Times journalist interviewing Farrah explained that they'd actually said feminist. "What does [feminist] mean? You're a lesbian or something?" Sigh.Heh.
Putin Speaks
Now the KGB has a direct line to the American people.
Now the KGB has a direct line to the American people.
No one doubts that poison gas was used in Syria. But there is every reason to believe it was used not by the Syrian Army, but by opposition forces, to provoke intervention by their powerful foreign patrons, who would be siding with the fundamentalists. Reports that militants are preparing another attack — this time against Israel — cannot be ignored.Feels like decline.
Monday, September 09, 2013
Logging
TV: Breaking Bad - 4th to last episode
In my opinion, this was the best episode of the season. Alliances formed. Each making major moves. The end was awesome. Only confusing bit was Landry and Lydia scene. Wasn't sure what was going on there...was Landry making a Marlo-esque move to steal the European connection? Weren't these white power prison dudes just happy to be getting paid a month ago? Now they want the whole pie?
TV: Breaking Bad - 4th to last episode
In my opinion, this was the best episode of the season. Alliances formed. Each making major moves. The end was awesome. Only confusing bit was Landry and Lydia scene. Wasn't sure what was going on there...was Landry making a Marlo-esque move to steal the European connection? Weren't these white power prison dudes just happy to be getting paid a month ago? Now they want the whole pie?
Football Round Up
Great game between Packers and Niners. Kaepernick and Boldin played awesome, making tons of huge plays. Makes me a bit nervous that we couldn't run the ball, but I imagine the Packers were scheming to stop the run, which is one of the reasons we three for 400 plus yards.
I noticed the Chiefs look to be adopting the personality of the Niners under Alex Smith. 28-2 game against Jacksonville. Smith was routinely said to be a benefactor of a strong Niners defense. I haven't looked at the stats, but I'd be willing to be the Niners let in a whole lot fewer points with Smith at QB than Kaepernick. Why would that happen? A couple reasons:
1. Smith tends to play ball-control offense, running, short passes, etc. Not a lot of big plays, but not a lot of turnovers or plays for losses. His offense tends to hold onto the ball longer and then the defense doesn't have to play as much. They are fresher and the other team has fewer opportunities to score. You also don't give the other team good field position.
2. Kaepernick plays bigger. Big plays put points on the board, but give the ball right back to the opponent. He turns it over more (that was the most impressive part of yesterdays game - no turnovers). We also get bigger leads, which causes the other team to become more aggressive offensively. The flip side, is we are able to come from behind.
No real huge surprises yesterday. Looks like Pittsburgh might finally be running out of steam. Tampa got screwed on that call to put the Jets in field goal range at the end of the game. The Giants demonstrated that running backs are still important.
Great game between Packers and Niners. Kaepernick and Boldin played awesome, making tons of huge plays. Makes me a bit nervous that we couldn't run the ball, but I imagine the Packers were scheming to stop the run, which is one of the reasons we three for 400 plus yards.
I noticed the Chiefs look to be adopting the personality of the Niners under Alex Smith. 28-2 game against Jacksonville. Smith was routinely said to be a benefactor of a strong Niners defense. I haven't looked at the stats, but I'd be willing to be the Niners let in a whole lot fewer points with Smith at QB than Kaepernick. Why would that happen? A couple reasons:
1. Smith tends to play ball-control offense, running, short passes, etc. Not a lot of big plays, but not a lot of turnovers or plays for losses. His offense tends to hold onto the ball longer and then the defense doesn't have to play as much. They are fresher and the other team has fewer opportunities to score. You also don't give the other team good field position.
2. Kaepernick plays bigger. Big plays put points on the board, but give the ball right back to the opponent. He turns it over more (that was the most impressive part of yesterdays game - no turnovers). We also get bigger leads, which causes the other team to become more aggressive offensively. The flip side, is we are able to come from behind.
No real huge surprises yesterday. Looks like Pittsburgh might finally be running out of steam. Tampa got screwed on that call to put the Jets in field goal range at the end of the game. The Giants demonstrated that running backs are still important.
Thursday, September 05, 2013
Logging
Film: Transporter 3
There's an absurd genius going on in films like this. On the one hand, they are utterly terrible and almost unwatchable. Cringeworthy dialog. Completely absurd situations. But you would be foolish to think the filmmakers are not aware of it. The principal organizing factor is handcuffing your hero. In this film, Jason Statham is handcuffed to a girl and his car. They will both literally explode from an explosive bracelet if they get outside of 75 feet from the car. This makes for all sorts of insane set pieces, including the car sinking in water, the car driving on top of a train, etc.
I find a strange inspiration from films like these, who take a basic populist pleasure in action-cinema. I am reminded of being a young man and the coded messages in such movies about bravery, doing good, having strength, and so forth. I actually don't think they are such bad lessons to learn.
Watched Sorcerer the other night and it reminded me of a saying that the ancients only valued courage. I loved the end when the people were cheering and happy for Roy Scheider because he was brave (in contrast to hating gringos during the earlier part of the film). Same message (although the movie is changed by the end beat when the guys come for him).
Reading a book right now that describes Orwell's opinion of Kipling: when he was young, he loved Kipling, as he got to be a teenager and twenty-something, he despised him. Later on, he grew to appreciate him again. The actual detail of the reading-relationship was more nuanced, but basic premise holds. I'm wondering if I will come back to enjoying just the dumb B-action films of my youth, the Segal, Schwarzenegger films.
Film: Transporter 3
There's an absurd genius going on in films like this. On the one hand, they are utterly terrible and almost unwatchable. Cringeworthy dialog. Completely absurd situations. But you would be foolish to think the filmmakers are not aware of it. The principal organizing factor is handcuffing your hero. In this film, Jason Statham is handcuffed to a girl and his car. They will both literally explode from an explosive bracelet if they get outside of 75 feet from the car. This makes for all sorts of insane set pieces, including the car sinking in water, the car driving on top of a train, etc.
I find a strange inspiration from films like these, who take a basic populist pleasure in action-cinema. I am reminded of being a young man and the coded messages in such movies about bravery, doing good, having strength, and so forth. I actually don't think they are such bad lessons to learn.
Watched Sorcerer the other night and it reminded me of a saying that the ancients only valued courage. I loved the end when the people were cheering and happy for Roy Scheider because he was brave (in contrast to hating gringos during the earlier part of the film). Same message (although the movie is changed by the end beat when the guys come for him).
Reading a book right now that describes Orwell's opinion of Kipling: when he was young, he loved Kipling, as he got to be a teenager and twenty-something, he despised him. Later on, he grew to appreciate him again. The actual detail of the reading-relationship was more nuanced, but basic premise holds. I'm wondering if I will come back to enjoying just the dumb B-action films of my youth, the Segal, Schwarzenegger films.
Becoming A Morning Person
Camp. Or at least mimic what campers do.
One of my favorite feelings in the world comes when you get up super early for a road trip - either to ski or just get somewhere - and the feeling of driving with a cup of hot coffee, a nice talk radio show going, and the sun coming up over the horizon and the road is open. Few better feelings in the world.
I am actively trying to become more of a morning person when it comes to work habits. There's a nice feeling to getting an hours work done before the morning cup of coffee. Get two hours of work in before 9am and your day is guaranteed to be good.
Camp. Or at least mimic what campers do.
One of my favorite feelings in the world comes when you get up super early for a road trip - either to ski or just get somewhere - and the feeling of driving with a cup of hot coffee, a nice talk radio show going, and the sun coming up over the horizon and the road is open. Few better feelings in the world.
I am actively trying to become more of a morning person when it comes to work habits. There's a nice feeling to getting an hours work done before the morning cup of coffee. Get two hours of work in before 9am and your day is guaranteed to be good.
Wednesday, September 04, 2013
Logging
Film: Sorcerer
Enjoyed this film more this time than when I originally saw it. Looking forward to the Bluray version. Incredible tension once they are driving the trucks. Closest non-Herzog film to a Herzog film, if that makes sense. Funny imaging being a cinema fan in 1977 and watching this the week after Star Wars came out.
Film: Sorcerer
Enjoyed this film more this time than when I originally saw it. Looking forward to the Bluray version. Incredible tension once they are driving the trucks. Closest non-Herzog film to a Herzog film, if that makes sense. Funny imaging being a cinema fan in 1977 and watching this the week after Star Wars came out.
Does Wealth Making Us Lazy
Perhaps. I like this part:
Perhaps. I like this part:
I’d say most long-term trends can be understood reasonably well as due to increasing wealth and lifespans. These include less monogamy, religion, work ethic, and violence.And you might want to add in birth control technology.
Tuesday, September 03, 2013
Breakfast Burritos
10 best in LA.
The breakfast burrito might be the most quintessential Los Angeles food. The burger would be number 2, but I imagine many cities can claim the burger. What other city can boast of the breakfast burrito?
10 best in LA.
The breakfast burrito might be the most quintessential Los Angeles food. The burger would be number 2, but I imagine many cities can claim the burger. What other city can boast of the breakfast burrito?
NFL Predictions
I'm not a fan of Barnwell over at Grantland. He way overvalues statistics as a predictor. Last year, he predicted a major 49er regression because most teams who jumped in performance from 7-9 to 13-3 had regressions. I thought this was an entirely stupid argument because the reason the 49ers jumped was because Harbaugh was a good coach and there was no reason to think they would regress to under-performing. His logic was akin to flipping a coin 9 times and 7 of them hitting tails and figuring the next flip therefore has a higher probability to hit heads. Wrong. The probability is still just 50/50.
This year, in his analysis of the Falcons, he points out how they perform well in close games and are due to regress because over time close game results tend to even out. Really? Wouldn't you conclude the reason they perform well in close games is Matt Ryan and Mike White know how to manage the clock and have good offensive weapons? Their performance, in other words, isn't random. I watched the 49ers all growing up during the Montana and Steve Young era. Montana always managed the clock at the end of games well. This is why he is known as the greatest quarterback of all time. Young did not. They used the same scheme and had similarly good offensive players. There was a difference between players and that's the reason Montana won 4 Super Bowls and Young won 1. It wasn't random.
In any case, here are my predictions:
1. At least one team that looks shitty on paper will be decent - Oakland, San Diego, Tennessee, Jacksonville, Arizona, Buffalo. I'm picking Tennessee, although Arizona and Buffalo have a shot.
2. At least one team that looks like a contender will suck - Denver, New England, New Orleans, Atlanta, Seattle, 49ers, Green Bay, Houston. My prediction is Denver or the 49ers, sadly. I am picking them based solely on if their quarterbacks get hurt, I think the team will really suffer and they both have a decent likelihood for different reasons.
3. Kansas City, Philadelphia, Baltimore, Cincinnati, Chicago, and Tampa Bay will all be over .500 and vying for the playoffs.
4. The most competitive divisions will be the AFC North, NFC East, NFC South. In some ways, I think any of the four teams in all these divisions could steal it.
5. I am terrified of the Seahawks.
I'm not a fan of Barnwell over at Grantland. He way overvalues statistics as a predictor. Last year, he predicted a major 49er regression because most teams who jumped in performance from 7-9 to 13-3 had regressions. I thought this was an entirely stupid argument because the reason the 49ers jumped was because Harbaugh was a good coach and there was no reason to think they would regress to under-performing. His logic was akin to flipping a coin 9 times and 7 of them hitting tails and figuring the next flip therefore has a higher probability to hit heads. Wrong. The probability is still just 50/50.
This year, in his analysis of the Falcons, he points out how they perform well in close games and are due to regress because over time close game results tend to even out. Really? Wouldn't you conclude the reason they perform well in close games is Matt Ryan and Mike White know how to manage the clock and have good offensive weapons? Their performance, in other words, isn't random. I watched the 49ers all growing up during the Montana and Steve Young era. Montana always managed the clock at the end of games well. This is why he is known as the greatest quarterback of all time. Young did not. They used the same scheme and had similarly good offensive players. There was a difference between players and that's the reason Montana won 4 Super Bowls and Young won 1. It wasn't random.
In any case, here are my predictions:
1. At least one team that looks shitty on paper will be decent - Oakland, San Diego, Tennessee, Jacksonville, Arizona, Buffalo. I'm picking Tennessee, although Arizona and Buffalo have a shot.
2. At least one team that looks like a contender will suck - Denver, New England, New Orleans, Atlanta, Seattle, 49ers, Green Bay, Houston. My prediction is Denver or the 49ers, sadly. I am picking them based solely on if their quarterbacks get hurt, I think the team will really suffer and they both have a decent likelihood for different reasons.
3. Kansas City, Philadelphia, Baltimore, Cincinnati, Chicago, and Tampa Bay will all be over .500 and vying for the playoffs.
4. The most competitive divisions will be the AFC North, NFC East, NFC South. In some ways, I think any of the four teams in all these divisions could steal it.
5. I am terrified of the Seahawks.
In Defense of Maps
A new book about the future:
But I also remember going on family vacations when I was young and my dad studying the map of wherever we were the night before. And I don't remember getting lost very often, if at all. To this day, I notice my father able to discuss details of geography and driving routes of places all around the country. Also, he would have a more general "lay of the land" approach and not get disoriented. I feel like when you relay on GPS, turn left here, right here, etc, etc., you are more easily flustered and lost than if you have a broader understanding of the city or area you are visiting.
Not only that, when you become broadly literate on geography, you will more easily be able to navigate foreign places. I imagine once you learn how to use one subway system, it is much easier to use other subways systems.
We should apply such principles to the adaptation of new technology. Yes, they can be useful. But the old ways should not be fully abandoned. Although my younger self may have benefited at some time or another from a text message telling me to make a move on a girl, I think I prefer the world in which I had to figure it out for myself.
A new book about the future:
Your smartphone will record data on your life and, when asked, will tell you what to do, drawing on data from your home or from your spouse and friends if need be. “You’ve thrown out that bread the last three times you’ve bought it, give it a pass” will be a text message of the future. How about “Now is not the time to start another argument with your wife”? The GPS is just the beginning of computer-guided instruction.
Take your smartphone on a date, and it might vibrate in your pocket to indicate “Kiss her now.” If you hesitate for fear of being seen as pushy, it may write: “Who cares if you look bad? You are sampling optimally in the quest for a lifetime companion.” Those who won’t listen, or who rebel out of spite, will be missing out on glittering prizes. Those of us who listen, while often envied, may feel more like puppets with deflated pride.I will admit the cell phone 3G internet is very handy while on vacation and trying to find stuff. That alone was one of my major reasons for switching from my old flip phone (incidentally, I noticed Walter White used the exact phone I used to have in last night's Breaking Bad episode).
But I also remember going on family vacations when I was young and my dad studying the map of wherever we were the night before. And I don't remember getting lost very often, if at all. To this day, I notice my father able to discuss details of geography and driving routes of places all around the country. Also, he would have a more general "lay of the land" approach and not get disoriented. I feel like when you relay on GPS, turn left here, right here, etc, etc., you are more easily flustered and lost than if you have a broader understanding of the city or area you are visiting.
Not only that, when you become broadly literate on geography, you will more easily be able to navigate foreign places. I imagine once you learn how to use one subway system, it is much easier to use other subways systems.
We should apply such principles to the adaptation of new technology. Yes, they can be useful. But the old ways should not be fully abandoned. Although my younger self may have benefited at some time or another from a text message telling me to make a move on a girl, I think I prefer the world in which I had to figure it out for myself.
Monday, September 02, 2013
Mental Bandwidth
Poverty taxes the brain. More than simply adding stress, it actually takes much more mental energy to live and thus makes other, more routine tasks harder.
Interesting stuff. I am very cognisant of mental energy and try my best not to waste it on stupid things.
Poverty taxes the brain. More than simply adding stress, it actually takes much more mental energy to live and thus makes other, more routine tasks harder.
Interesting stuff. I am very cognisant of mental energy and try my best not to waste it on stupid things.
Logging
Labor day movie round up
Film in theater: The Grandmaster
DVDs: The Other Guys, Logan's Run, Smokey and the Bandit, The Raid Redeption
The Grandmaster was a disappointment. Was hoping to be washed over and relaxed on a hot afternoon by Won Kar Wai images. Was actually surprised by how lame the slow motion shots looked. Seemed like he was adjusting to shooting a new format or something. Maybe going digital for the first time? I honestly don't know, nor do even care enough to research it. Story telling was bad. How is it possible to have Tony Leung, Zi Zhang, and Won Kar Wai and make a lousy movie? Goes to show how hard movie making is.
The Other Guys was laugh out loud funny in parts and yet I still fell asleep. My theory is the plot sucks and they blow their comedy wad in the first half of the movie and don't set anything up and so the third act becomes total absurdity.
The Raid Redemption, however, embraces absurdity and is a vehicle for kick-ass action sequences. I thought it was a pretty awesome in the way old Jet Li or Van Damme movies were awesome.
Smokey and the Bandit is a lot of fun and I appreciate it more now than when I was younger. I'm not an instinctive fan of the "Southern" as Tarantino puts it, but Jackie Gleason is a delight and damn, Burt and Sally Field had some real chemistry going there. I still prefer White Lighting.
Logan's Run...eh...would like to see the Nic Refn remake if that ever happens.
Labor day movie round up
Film in theater: The Grandmaster
DVDs: The Other Guys, Logan's Run, Smokey and the Bandit, The Raid Redeption
The Grandmaster was a disappointment. Was hoping to be washed over and relaxed on a hot afternoon by Won Kar Wai images. Was actually surprised by how lame the slow motion shots looked. Seemed like he was adjusting to shooting a new format or something. Maybe going digital for the first time? I honestly don't know, nor do even care enough to research it. Story telling was bad. How is it possible to have Tony Leung, Zi Zhang, and Won Kar Wai and make a lousy movie? Goes to show how hard movie making is.
The Other Guys was laugh out loud funny in parts and yet I still fell asleep. My theory is the plot sucks and they blow their comedy wad in the first half of the movie and don't set anything up and so the third act becomes total absurdity.
The Raid Redemption, however, embraces absurdity and is a vehicle for kick-ass action sequences. I thought it was a pretty awesome in the way old Jet Li or Van Damme movies were awesome.
Smokey and the Bandit is a lot of fun and I appreciate it more now than when I was younger. I'm not an instinctive fan of the "Southern" as Tarantino puts it, but Jackie Gleason is a delight and damn, Burt and Sally Field had some real chemistry going there. I still prefer White Lighting.
Logan's Run...eh...would like to see the Nic Refn remake if that ever happens.
Sunday, September 01, 2013
More on Syria
Listening to the radio makes me think we need to import Tywin Lannister to help us deal with the situation. Seriously. The foreign policy world is like Game of Thrones right now, except there is no throne.
Now, Obama is going to wait on Congress to vote to attack. Some general thoughts:
1. Are we democracy is best for Arab societies? The Germany, Japan, and South Korean models have not, thus far, proven to work in Iraq. And it is presently failing in Egypt. The cases of Germany and Japan might be unique to the historical moment and countries who were utterly defeated in war. No such situation exists in the Arab world.
2. We've done limited missile strikes in the past and it isn't clear they work to our long term benefit. They almost always provoke a reaction from the other side and do not deal with the underlying problem.
3. Why is there a rush to punish Assad over his chemical weapons? Punishment could apply in a year, just as easily as next week.
4. Why are we not better off letting two enemies hostile to the United States fight - and presumably weaken - one another?
5. We know the Syrian rebels have no preferable government to replace the Assad regime and over 50% of their fighters are Al Queda-like groups. Why would we pursue any policy to assist them?
6. Will "punishing" Assad with limited missile strikes really deter other countries from pursuing such weapons?
7. Why are we reacting to the 1,400 dead from the chemical weapons and not the other 80-90,000 who have died from "legitimate" fighting?
8. Aren't we glad Israel blew up the Syrian nuclear reactor right now?
9. How do we know missile strikes will not prolong the conflict? If we have a dog in the fight, why not support that dog and help them win decisively. It seems like the missile strikes would serve the purpose of "evening" the playing field and thus prolonging the conflict.
10. Why is the United States concerned with acting "consistently" in the lawless world of foreign policy? Even if we didn't punish Assad for chemical weapon usage, we could still punish other countries for usage in the future. Clearly, there are no international norms or governing body who has sway. There are institutions which can occasionally assist in creating an international consensus, but such consensus is almost always rooted in aligned political interests of the moment. Just look at the breakdown of international consensus in the following conflicts:
a. Iran-Iraq War. Chemical weapons used. No international intervention.
b. Gulf War 1. International intervention because Kuwait was invaded (could be viewed as aftermath of Iran-Iraq war). No intervention when Saddam used chemical weapons against Kurds.
c. Gulf War 2. No international consensus. US-Brit coalition intervention. Saddam overthrown. No evidence of weapons, but could be considered later punishment from prior use.
d. Libya intervention. International consensus for invasion. No illegal weapons involved.
e. Egyptian coup. No international intervention. No illegal weapons used.
f. Syria intervention. No international intervention. Chemical weapons used. US may intervene on own.
There is no consistency whatsoever, from any of the parties involved.
Listening to the radio makes me think we need to import Tywin Lannister to help us deal with the situation. Seriously. The foreign policy world is like Game of Thrones right now, except there is no throne.
Now, Obama is going to wait on Congress to vote to attack. Some general thoughts:
1. Are we democracy is best for Arab societies? The Germany, Japan, and South Korean models have not, thus far, proven to work in Iraq. And it is presently failing in Egypt. The cases of Germany and Japan might be unique to the historical moment and countries who were utterly defeated in war. No such situation exists in the Arab world.
2. We've done limited missile strikes in the past and it isn't clear they work to our long term benefit. They almost always provoke a reaction from the other side and do not deal with the underlying problem.
3. Why is there a rush to punish Assad over his chemical weapons? Punishment could apply in a year, just as easily as next week.
4. Why are we not better off letting two enemies hostile to the United States fight - and presumably weaken - one another?
5. We know the Syrian rebels have no preferable government to replace the Assad regime and over 50% of their fighters are Al Queda-like groups. Why would we pursue any policy to assist them?
6. Will "punishing" Assad with limited missile strikes really deter other countries from pursuing such weapons?
7. Why are we reacting to the 1,400 dead from the chemical weapons and not the other 80-90,000 who have died from "legitimate" fighting?
8. Aren't we glad Israel blew up the Syrian nuclear reactor right now?
9. How do we know missile strikes will not prolong the conflict? If we have a dog in the fight, why not support that dog and help them win decisively. It seems like the missile strikes would serve the purpose of "evening" the playing field and thus prolonging the conflict.
10. Why is the United States concerned with acting "consistently" in the lawless world of foreign policy? Even if we didn't punish Assad for chemical weapon usage, we could still punish other countries for usage in the future. Clearly, there are no international norms or governing body who has sway. There are institutions which can occasionally assist in creating an international consensus, but such consensus is almost always rooted in aligned political interests of the moment. Just look at the breakdown of international consensus in the following conflicts:
a. Iran-Iraq War. Chemical weapons used. No international intervention.
b. Gulf War 1. International intervention because Kuwait was invaded (could be viewed as aftermath of Iran-Iraq war). No intervention when Saddam used chemical weapons against Kurds.
c. Gulf War 2. No international consensus. US-Brit coalition intervention. Saddam overthrown. No evidence of weapons, but could be considered later punishment from prior use.
d. Libya intervention. International consensus for invasion. No illegal weapons involved.
e. Egyptian coup. No international intervention. No illegal weapons used.
f. Syria intervention. No international intervention. Chemical weapons used. US may intervene on own.
There is no consistency whatsoever, from any of the parties involved.
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