Very Interesting

Life logic embedded in football logic.

At the very end of the game, the Lions faced a mostly theoretical decision that is worth discussing, too. When Brandon Pettigrew scored with 1:29 left, the Lions went down by nine points, pending the conversion. They chose to kick an extra point, bringing them within one score, and then failed on an onside kick that essentially ended the game. Should the Lions have gone for two? It doesn't really matter because their odds of winning were so low,7 but they probably should have, yes. The natural argument is that the Lions should take the extra point and make it a one-score game, but that's just delaying the moment of truth. 

Analyst Chase Stuart has written a bunch about this recently, and he makes a very good point: Essentially, people are afraid of missing the two-point attempt and trailing by 9 points. But it's not a one-score game. Trailing by 8 isn't a one-score game if you are going to fail on your two-point try. And there's no reason to think your odds of converting a 2-point attempt are higher when trailing by 2 than by 9. Trailing by 8 is a 1.5-possession game; half the time it is a 1-possession game, and half the time it is a 2-possession game. 

To simply put your head in the sand and say "I don't wanna know!!" may keep hope alive longer but it lowers your odds of winning. Let's pretend for a moment that the Lions scored with five minutes left and faced this same decision. If they go for two and don't make it, they're down two scores with five minutes left. They're pretty screwed. On the other hand, what if they kick the extra point, score again with 20 seconds left, and then don't get the two-point conversion? They're really screwed. If you fail with five minutes left, you at least know that you need two scores and can plan the rest of the game accordingly. By delaying the decision, you're trading that tangible knowledge for a glimmer of hope in being able to put off the really tough part until later. Unless there's some significant reason to think that a two-point conversion after the second touchdown is more likely to succeed than one after the first, delaying it doesn't offer an advantage.

Repeat: delaying does not offer an advantage. Good life lesson.