Friday, August 17, 2012

Math

They say you should save 10% of you income for retirement.  Assuming your cost of living is basically the same while you are working as when you are retired (a safe assumption, I don't see why anyone would assume otherwise), we're talking a 10-1 ratio of work years to post-work years.  So say you work from 24-67 (a fairly reasonable estimate given the nature of schooling, time off, etc, etc.).  That gives you 33 work years.  And saving 10% of that money towards retirement would give you 3.3 years of retirement.  Not much, right?

No one should reasonably expect the magic of compound interest to make up the rest - certainly not the way the stock market has performed lately.  You'll be lucky if you have a little bump up from the simple cost of living adjustment (inflation).

So how is this supposed to work?  One of the dumb aspects of retirement planning is the idea that your income is constant.  Craziness.  People will work for jobs for years in order to build themselves up for a big payoff moment.  People start businesses and can work for years without income, but if they establish a good business, can later sell it for massive profit.  Or fail, I suppose, too.  Or you may be earning a lot at the moment as corporate lawyer, a studio executive, or an investment banker.  But all these jobs are up or out, and the majority of those people will be out.  Not everyone becomes a partner or the president of the studio, or an owner of a company.  So save while you can -- and don't raise your nut.

I guess my point in all this - don't listen to dumb advice.  Save WAAAAY more than you think you'll ever need, if you can.  And time is money.  You are either getting ahead or falling behind.  There is no such thing as cruising.

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