Maybe I'm Just a Neocon

This is pretty much how I felt, and continue to feel, about the Iraq War. Money quote:

I would summarize my position as follows: all alternatives in these situations (prewar Iraq, for example) are fraught with danger and possible chaos. But we must nevertheless choose the course that looks best given all the knowledge we have at the time, knowing that it might lead to failure. That's the risk one must take.

In fact, it's impossible not to take a risk. Because don't think you can avoid making a decision by simply choosing to do nothing. That has consequences, too, although they are easier to deny. And, since we don't have a variety of worlds in which we can try out all the different actions as a sort of scientific experiment, we have to make all decisions with very imperfect knowledge, making it up as we go along, never quite knowing whether we were correct or not--even ex post facto.

If you just sit around in poker and never bet, you'll eventually lose your money and you can argue - I didn't make any bad bets. Well, yeah, not betting was a bad idea.