Fascinating Round Ups On Iran

To start off, a rather reasonable, even hopeful analysis of the Iranian situation from the Chicago Boyz outlining explanations for Iran's bizarre recent behavior. On the flip side, is the pessemistic look from Winds of Change, who basically believes a war showdown with Iran is inevitable. (I just realized I am totally copying an Instapundit post...)

For those not following too closely, including myself, a brief round-up of recent events:

1. Iran very publically re-starts development on nuclear plants. They've made it painfully obvious, by any standard, to be interested in developing their own nuke. It is pissing of the Europeans a lot, and even the Russians (who rely upon Iranian oil) are offering compromise solutions to an obvious problem.

2. The most far right candidate in their recent election becomes president and announces the holocaust was a myth, organizes a holocaust convention to debunk the myth perpetrated by Jews and the West. This is the difference between the crazy radical in office and his predecessor, who slightly less radical.

Many in the foreign policy establishment believe that if Iran develops a nuke, it is inevitable that a nuke will be used in the near future. Reasons:

1. A nuclear Iran will spark an arms race in the Middle East where Saudi Arabia (who is already talking with Pakistan about getting a nuke), Syria, Lebannon, and Turkey all need a nuke to maintain a deterrent. The reason: Iranian Shi'ia don't see eye to eye with the Sunni majorities in each of their neighbors.

2. An nuclear arms race in the Middle East GREATLY enhances the possibility of a terrorist organization getting access to a device.

3. Iran, with it's known terrorist ties, could at any time hand off a nuke to Hezbollah or like organization to wreck havoc or blackmail the world.

4. Iranian mullah's are happy to use the nuke against Israel to provoke a war if they become fearful that their internal grip of power is coming apart to moderates (infidels to them).

5. Iran is happy to have nukes and appear all crazy to invite a pre-emptive attack from Israel or the US, thus hoping to consolidate Muslim support for a full on holy war with the West...which is secretly what they've been hoping for years...