Notes on Luttwak Podcast

From Hidden Forces:

-Xi Jiping planning for Taiwan invasion. Why? War starts with a concept. Xi has it in his head Chinese to establish themselves as a war fighting people. 

-Evidence: promoting violent, unprovoked actions against India on the border.

-Evidence: ordering the production of wheat/grain against growing oranges, fruit, etc because planning for future sanctions.

-Evidence: leading political theorist right now in China (and Xi's intellectual boss) believes China's communist party will fall unless democracies proven to be weak/ineffectual.

-How? Xi will put pressure on Taiwan and count upon treason from Generals within Taiwanese army. He sees some KMT members in powerful military positions in Taiwan as essentially mainlanders who when push comes to shove will lose on purpose. Evidence: they already have apartments build for them in Beijing.

-What else? Xi wants a skirmish against the US to prove China is tough. Maybe over Taiwan.

-Luttwak makes the point the Han are wonderful people, but not warlike. They've been controlled by other groups for centuries - the Mongols and the Japanese. He said there would still be Japanese garrisons in China if not for the Americans.