The Democrats 

Went all in with an inside straight draw on the on the Kavanaugh charges and lost the pot. I think they'll lose the midterms and 2020 presidential reelection over this.

Irony is, by going batshit on the Russia probe and Kavanaugh, I think they've missed the real dirt, which is the Trump family tax fraud. Politically speaking, the Democratic base are making the Trump lead Republican party look like the sane adults in the room.

My guess on the matter:

5% chance Kavanaugh assaulted Ford like she claimed and he managed through luck, conspiracy, and a really convincing lie to avoid corroborating evidence.

10% chance Kavanaugh and Ford had some unusual interaction that Ford remembers as worse than it was and Kavanaugh (and no one else) can remember it at all.

30% chance a case of mistaken identity or confusion due to the long time before she confronted the issue. That is, something happened to Ford and she somehow got in her head it was Kavanaugh, but it was actually someone else.

10% chance Ford is batshit crazy and nothing like it happened, but she believes it did.

10% chance Ford is lying.

35% something else, I have no clue what.

I'd be interested in hearing someone who totally disagrees with me on the issue would lay out the percentage odds.