Playoffs?  Did You Say Playoffs?

All I care about is the 49ers.  I'll watch the other games - Seahawks vs. Redskins will be fun, another Peyton-Brady match up will be for the ages, watching AP run for at least one game will be fun, but the only story which truly matters for me is the Niners and going with Kaepernick.

I still disagree with the decision - on both levels - the heart and the head.  I'll try to break it down.

Heart:  Smith earned his starting spot.  There are no two ways about it.  The guy earned it.  He lost two bad games in the Harbaugh era - both against the Giants - who just might be a match up problem for the Niners.  Two games!  What did Kaepernick do?  Look good in one game?  And he gets the job?  Kaepernick didn't earn his position as a starting QB.  He didn't do anything over time.  Smith showed steady improvement and an ability to win.  He won over people (like me) who gave up on him years ago.  He earned a shot at taking this team to glory and it was taken from him by the guy who got him there.

Head:  The Niners can still only win one way:  jumping out to a lead and holding it with our strong defense.  We are not a come from behind team - not with Smith, not with Kaepernick.  We are not built that way.  We are built to physically destruct teams.  We do this by "game management."  We try to put together long, time consuming drives on offense where our superior offensive line wears down the other team.  This keeps our superior defense fresh throughout the game.

Last year, the first half of many Niner games would look ugly.  We'd dominate the game and be ahead 6-0 or 9-0 on several field goals.  Superficially, it seemed like we couldn't convert in the red zone and weren't putting away teams.  In reality, we were controlling the game with possession and putting teams into positions too difficult to score.  We were limiting the other teams offensive possessions.  In a league built around passing attacks, this Niner strategy could throw many teams for a loop and cause offenses to get "out of rhythm."  This strategy was developed even before Harbaugh and actually employed by the Saints when they beat the 15-1 Peyton Manning Colts in the Super Bowl in 2010.

People would not be impressed with Smith for going 10-14 for 95 yards and no touchdowns, as if this was a mark against his big play ability.  What in fact he was doing was chewing up clock, keeping our defense fresh, not turning the ball over, putting up 3 points on the board or pinning the other team inside their own 20.  The results:  13-3.  And I still hold we win the NFC Championship game if we have more than one healthy receiver.  Smith had no one to throw the ball to.

With Kaepernick, we are built differently.  And granted, Akers sucks this year, so our kicking game cannot help us control games like it did last year.  But with Kaepernick, we are better at getting the ball downfield and better at scoring quickly.  But does this help us win games?  It puts more points on the board, but it makes our defense get out there and need to play more snaps.  Evidence:  New England game and the Seattle game.  This tires our defense out and because we don't use many substitutions, makes us vulnerable.  I'm not sure this caused the Justin Smith injury, but we've certainly given up more points of late...and this is logical because we're giving the team the ball more.

But something else is going on that is more concerning.  Our run game.  Our rushing average has gone down since Kaepernick took over.  Why?  Kaepernick was supposed to make our offense more dynamic with his running ability and his "stretching of the field" it should open more running lanes.  But it hasn't.  I'm not sure why, but I think it has to do with not wearing out the defense.  We have too many 3 and outs, more sloppy play, turnovers, etc, and too many quick scores.  Last year, on the long drives, teams could not stop Gore even if they wanted to because their legs and strength were gone.

Here's the thing:  we went with potential over the sure thing.  In many cases, this is the right thing to do.  If you are a rebuilding team looking for the future, you get the guy of the future the reps.  I get it.  But not when you are built to win now and the Niners are built to win now.  Gore is 29.  Justin Smith is 33.  Our secondary is not full of young guys.  Vernon Davis and Patrick Willis are in their primes.  Sure, we have some good young guys - Bowman, Crabtree, Aldon Smith, our offensive line, but it isn't like our future is brighter than our present.  Our time is now.  The division is catching up.  Seattle is the team of the future with Wilson and their cornerbacks and Lynch.  There is no way we are going to get players of the Gore, Justin Smith, Patrick Willis, and Vernon Davis quality to replace those guys.  Maybe Harbaugh sees the future and sees Kaepernick as the way to replace the ability to physically dominate teams through superior quarterback play.  Fine.  But let Smith play out this year - like we did with Montana - and see where he can take us.  He earned that much and the Niner fans deserved to see it.  If we can't get over the hump, fine, move on with Kaepernick next year.

Anyway, this is my logic as we head into the playoffs.  I feel no where near as confident this year as last year and last year the Saints, Packers, and Giants were better than any team we may need to face in the playoffs this year - and that includes red hot Seattle.  The Niners, as presently constructed, have taken a step back.