Grantland Podcast:  Nate Silver

Interesting podcast with Nate Silver.  Toward the end, they talk about sports betting and confirmed what I've long suspected:  you can't beat the house.  They talked about a guy who they both considered the most mathematically sound and best bettor in the country and he gets 57% of his bets correct.  That is big enough to make a handsome profit, but he works 80 hours a week in order to stay ahead of the curve while already being essentially the most knowledgeable dude in the world.  A somewhat less skilled guy, if he can predict 55% correct, can still make a living.  Any less than that, down to 52 or 53% and you get into trouble turning a profit because of deviations, etc.

What an incredibly difficult racket.

Silver also talked about online poker gambling.  He made a really smart point - for awhile there was easy money out there - but it quickly went away.  He said he was in the top 90 percentile for awhile and making dough online, but then all the losers either stop playing or get good and soon, the easy money disappears.  The only way to sustain easy money in poker is continually getting new people to play.

By the way, I see the same trend of social media - the currency of social media is new people joining.  Once everyone is on it - what's the point?