Wrong Model

Some push back on the claim Iran does not seek nuclear weapons.

The question about rouge states gaining nuclear weapons centers around intelligence gathering and finding a smoking gun. Our instinct, especially because the intelligence was wrong about Iraq, is to try and prove that rouge regimes possess or are in the final stages of possessing a nuke before taking any radical action against it. This strikes me as foolish. The cost of being wrong - in the case of allowing rouge regimes to gain nukes - are immensely high. Much higher than letting a criminal go free. Not only for the possibility of the nuke being used by a rouge regime or terrorist proxies, but also in terms of global power and emboldening illegitimate regimes.

I'm not arguing we need to go in and conquer Iran, but it strikes me that we are using the wrong metric in terms of evaluating the cost/benefits of action vs. inaction.