All About Iran?

Sullivan (or a reader, rather) asks whether Iraq was all about Iran.

So long as we're being conspiratorial, I would suggest it was never about Iran, but rather about Saudi Arabia. The Saudis control the oil reserves of the world. Only the Saudis can ramp up and down oil production to manage the oil flow in any type of crisis. After 9/11, it was obvious to everyone that the Saudis are incredibly dangerous allies. They are also notoriously secretive and misleading about their oil reserves. This month's Atlantic offers a mathematical analysis showing that the largest oil field in Saudi Arabia may be drying up. The Saudi Wahhabists are hardcore fundamentalists, the population is young, overeducated, and unable to find jobs, the per capita income is much lower than 20 years ago. In short, the world economy is resting on a VERY unstable country.

Which brings us to Iraq...the one country in the Middle East whose oil production was severly under-developed (because Saddam, in addition to being a thug, was also an idiot). Iraq has the second most oil reserves in the world. What we need, medium term, to avoid worldwide recession, is a more stable oil supply. Iraq could be that place...or at least has a better chance at being that place than Saudi Arabia.

Anyhow, the plan doesn't seem to be going very well right now.