Breaking Bad Finale

Final episodes are tough.  Felt like 45 minutes of set up and then one pretty good scene.  On my Breaking Bad pool, I correctly predicted every single death and every single survivor, but was wrong about who-killed-who.  I predicted Walt would kill Todd, but should have seen it coming that it would be Jesse.  I predicted Jack would kill Walt and got that wrong.

Overall, a pretty damn good final season of TV.  I think it is easy to get hyperbolic about these things and worry too much about what is the best TV show of all time, etc.  Who cares?  Lists, lists, lists.  Enough already.  It's just a goddamn TV show.

Seymour Hersh

The Bin Laden raid story is one big lie.

Hmmm.  And this:

“It’s pathetic, they are more than obsequious,” Hersh said of the American media. “They are afraid to pick on this guy (Obama).”

"It used to be when you were in a situation when something very dramatic happened, the president and the minions around the president had control of the narrative, you would pretty much know they would do the best they could to tell the story straight,” he said.

“Now that doesn't happen anymore. Now they take advantage of something like that and they work out how to re-elect the president.”

Logging

Film:  Drug War

Maybe my expectations were a bit high.  "The French Connection meets the Wire."  "Better than anything Michael Mann's done in years."  These were my primers going in.  The film was okay.  There was some spectacular action sequences, but nothing that tops Michael Mann's work.  More similar to John Woo.  The film was ridiculously complicated and lacked the verisimilitude of French Connection or the Wire.  This was stylized.  Anyhow, a disappointment given my high expectations.

Are The Niners Back?

I'd hardly say so.  The Rams are terrible and the Niners couldn't hardly get a first down in the first half. If Gore doesn't break that 4th and inches, it is 7-3 or 10-3 at halftime.  Getting up 14-3 was huge and then we put the game away nicely in the 2nd half.  You can't make too much of Thursday games, but the game plan finally matched our talent.  We kept Kaepernick on training wheels, which is still where he needs to be.  Still, he pressed some passes and the guy is easy to read, he just stares at receivers and doesn't know what the defense is doing.  He still runs when there is an easy slot pass available.  I don't like he's always barking at the other team and getting in little shit-talk sessions.  I don't like how he can't read the defense and I don't like how he winds up and takes too long to throw.

Still, this is how we need to play:  run to set up the pass.  Get ourselves into 3rd and short situations when we can roll Kaepernick out and utilize his legs.  Long drives.

Buying High

People are rushing back into stocks now that they are overpriced.  Real bright.

Maybe

A retort to the idea that technology is killing jobs and the middle class.  Perhaps government regulations and insider-scheming are causing joblessness.  But either way, something is amiss in America today -- fewer adults are working and in particular, way fewer men are working than in the past.  I don't think it is a good thing.

AMEN!

The first sports column I've read which addresses the faulty decision the Niners made at QB.

Imagine what the Niners could have gotten for Kaepernick if we traded him at the end of the year instead of Smith.  Or, hell, just keep him as a talented back up.

Window Closed

Perhaps this is an overreaction, but just like that, it seems like the window has closed on the 49ers.  I don't see how they (or anyone else) gets through Seattle this year.  I don't see our team getting better in the next couple years.  Four of our best players:  Frank Gore, Justin Smith, Vernon Davis, and Patrick Willis are in their prime or past their prime.  We will not be able to replace those guys with equal quality players.  Our young "stars" are erratic and not personalities to build a team around:  Kaepernick, Crabtree, and Aldon Smith.  Perhaps our offensive line will remain potent, but they haven't looked good the last two weeks.  And I heard an announcer say the other day "Quarterbacks make offensive lines, not the other way around."  I fear he might be right.

We have no Steve Young to transition to.  We have no Jerry Rice to bridge the legacy.  We have no young Bryant Young on defense.  We have Willis, who is the heart of the team, but we are lacking a head.  When we were great, we had Ronnie Lott as the heart and Joe Montana as the head.

We have lost our identity.  We tried to be something else by bringing in Kaepernick and the team is breaking around it.  I see a few flashy wins and a lot of frustrating losses.  8-8, 9-7 this year.  Could even miss the playoffs.

Logging

Film:  Rush

I rather enjoyed this film.  Didn't know much about Formula 1 racing and the mano v. mano rivalry story was done well.  Wasn't Michael Mann going to do an F1 movie?  Would like to see that.

Ceilings and It's Not Kaepernick's Fault

The sports media is a joke and utterly biased by highlights.

Nearly every dumbass article about the Niners cite the fact that "it isn't all Kaepernick's fault" and the receivers stink.  No one offered this explanation for our glamor-less offensive during Alex Smith's reign when our record was 19-5 and we never lost by double-digits.  Why is everyone pointing it out now?  No one pointed it out during the Giant's game when we were down to two receivers.  Unbelievable.

And if I hear one more person talk about offensive "ceilings," I'm going to vomit.  Who cares about "ceilings?"  So what if in a perfect world an offense "could" score a lot of points.  I'm more concerned about what happens in an actual game with actual opponents and actual situations than some metaphysical notion of possibility.  This guy on a podcast I listened to this morning talked about how the Chiefs offense didn't have a high ceiling and this would hurt them.  Really?  How so?  They are 3-0.  And guess who has a high ceiling:  The Eagles offense.  The same offense that make 5 turnovers and just got their ass kicked at home by the Chiefs.  Then, the guys point out the Eagles made 5 turnovers and the Chiefs had zero and they "only" won by 10 points....as if the two had no relation to one another...

So dumb.  It is as if they don't consider the idea of risk.  The Eagles offense is high risk.  So yes, the ceiling is high, but so is the floor.

Man, I'd love to get in a room and sell speculative real estate investments to all this idiots who talk about high ceilings.  I can see them throwing their retirement savings into dumbass investments all over the place.

Yikes

I don't remember the Niners getting humiliated this badly two weeks in the row with Alex Smith at QB under Harbaugh.  And let's not use the no wide receivers excuse, because during our 13-3 season, we had no wideouts either.

Logging

Film:  Prisoners

A good but not great film.  Quite a lot of tension and chills.  I'm disposed to like these kind of mysteries.  People are all talking about Hugh Jackman's rageful performance and he is good, but performance-wise, I was most impressed with Gyllenhaal.  I'm not sure I've liked him in any movie since Donnie Darko.  He was the one sore spot in Zodiac.  But he tries something different in this film and I thought it worked.  Plus, the calm detective is a tougher role to bring emotion to than the raging father.

Not that it ruins the movie, but I knew basically what had happened around the midpoint, the result of seeing too many mysteries.  I can claim credit for also predicting the Killing season 3 and the two major twists in Top of the Lake.  My fiance is impressed, anyway.  (The Secrets in their Eyes is a recent mystery I didn't see coming).  Still, the ultimate resolution of the crime and the "why" of the crime was not as satisfying as the great films of this genre.  And the movie is overly long.  I wasn't sitting in my seat hoping it would end, but the steam started to come out right around the 4th act (yes, there are 4-5 acts).  Gyllenhaal's 3rd act realization was a tad hackneyed, a version of putting a glass over a picture in order to focus-in, the type of happenstance that only would happen in movies.

But these are minor quibbles.  I wish this movie well because I'd love it if there were more like it.

My final note is that Silence of the Lambs set the bar so high for the mystery thriller, it has almost ruined the genre.  I'm almost not sure where the genre can go.  The most interesting post-Lambs serial killer film is Zodiac, but that film is more a procedural and the impact of the crimes on the people involved and less about the "why" or "who" of the crime.  Se7en was a bit hit and a good film, but I'd call it an anomaly.  Se7en is so close to being a terrible movie, it really is a miracle it works.

Good Article

I think a lot of people will relate to this.  A very pessimistic view of the future for the US.

Agreed

Reports Obama only reads The New York Times.  I'd hope anyone, and certainly the President, read more than one newspaper.

2-16-16

The Chiefs are 3-0 and 2-16-16 is the amount of points they've allowed in each game.  Sixteen points each for the Cowboys and Eagles, two of the most explosive offenses in the NFL.  How are they slowing these guys down?  Is their defense that good?  Maybe.  But perhaps there is another factor:  Alex Smith.

Do you watch the drives?  Nothing flashy.  No mistakes.  Make a couple of first downs, chew up clock.  Play for field position.  Get your defense rest.  Don't let the Eagles run a ton of plays.  In fact, if you discount the long McCoy run, they could have held the Eagles to single digits.

Counting the playoffs, in the last three years, here is Smith's record as a starter:

13-3
1-1
6-2
3-0

23-6 (win percent 79%)

Perhaps he had elite defenses, but Kansas City had similar guys last year and they were 2-14 and gave up about 25 points a game.  This year, they are 3-0 and giving up around 11 points a game.  And it's not like Andy Reid is known as a defensive coach.

**Side note:  Kaepernick and the Niners since Alex Smith left:

5-2-1
2-1
1-1

7-4-1 (win percent 58%)

Smith has developed into a quarterback who knows how to win.  He has crafted himself into the anti-Brett Favre.  He is not flashy, does not make spectacular plays, and does not take risks.  There is a problem with this style -- they will have trouble coming from behind to win.  But you know what?  They don't fall behind very often or by very much.  Smith knows what he is doing at the line of scrimmage.  He knows what the defense is trying to do and runs plays that give his offense just a slight advantage.  That's why they reel off so many 4-5-6-7 yard runs.

There is an old adage:  if it ain't broken, don't fix it.  The Niners were 13-3 and a couple fumbled punt returns from the Super Bowl.  I still think we made a mistake ditching Smith for Kaepernick.  I know Kap brings some things Smith doesn't, but no one pays any attention to think things Smith does that Kap doesn't.  And perhaps one of the best arguments for Kap over Smith is how much future upside he brings to the franchise -- but look at Seattle.  That team is a juggernaut now.  We can't really play with them, certainly on their field.  Justin Smith and Frank Gore are getting old and our team will not be the same without them.  I'm just not sure what the future holds and I'm not convinced Kaepernick will be elite in the way Peyton Manning or Brady or Brees or Rodgers is elite, and so I still don't understand what the move was truly about.

Let me put it another way:  you either have an elite quarterback (who makes your team automatically good) or you don't.  If you don't have an elite qb, you want a qb who can play to your teams strengths and not lose games for you.  Smith developed into this type of quarterback - perhaps one of the best in the league.  I think Eli Manning, Joe Flacco, and a few others fall into this same category.  The only elite QBs are really Peyton, Brees, Brady, and Rodgers.

Libertarian Agenda

First on my libertarian political agenda is to imitate this new Sweedish policy:

SWEDEN: IT’S ‘OK’ TO MASTURBATE IN PUBLIC: Didn’t “target a specific person,” or just horrible aim? A Swedish man charged with sexual assault for masturbating on a beach in Stockholm was acquitted after a court ruled the act was not “directed towards one or more people.” The 65-year-old Swede in question was caught with his pants around his ankles, pleasuring himself near the water’s edge in June. Thanks to this monumental ruling, Swedes can pleasure themselves in public so long as they’re somewhat discreet about it. “With that we can conclude that it is okay to masturbate on the beach,” the prosecutor declared. But don’t get too carried away on the shores of Stockholm: “disorderly conduct” charges may still apply.

You Don't Say

Insiders reaping profit after drafting the Obamacare law.

Whatever your politics, this whole idea that "nobody understands the law" is a pretty good indication the policy is destined to be lousy.

Why Gen Y Yuppies Are Unhappy

Pretty accurate.

Logging

Film:  The Year of Living Dangerously

I love this kind of sprawling, political dramas.  Reminded me of The Killing Fields.  Who said the 80s were lousy for movies?  In the entire 2000s, I can't think of a sprawling political drama that engages with questions of great moral weight.  The English Patient comes to mind, but that was so long ago now.  Sigourney Weaver plays a hot British spy, a nice turn for her.  Another Mel Gibson movie before he became a huge star - he did quite a few.

What's Wrong With The Modern World

Jonathan Franzen discusses Karl Krauss.