3 Nights

Taken me 3 nights to get through 40 minutes of White Lotus S3E3. Not a good sign. We've passed peak White Lotus.

Good Luck With That

Palestinian woman says she will "never surrender." Not really sure exactly what she means but that. Oh wait...yes I do. Her people will be further immiserated for the next 75 years.

The obvious thing for the Palestinians to do is give up the violence and get rich and beat the Israelis demographically. But that would require discipline, patience, and strategic thinking.

Democrats

Used to be fun and have their hearts in the right place - standing up for the little guy against the powerful. 

Now...they've become the party of the dysfunctional neurotics - joyless, envious scolds.

No wonder they're losing.

This Bit

Is better than anything in the film. 

Logging

Film: Conclave

My least favorite film of the nominees so far (that I've seen). Ridiculo 3rd act.

Zelenskyy-Trump-Vance Blow Up

I watched the entire interview. Several thoughts:

1) This was not a prep-planned ambush as some in the American media ridiculously suggest. Clearly, it was a formalization of a deal that did indeed blow up at the last minute.

2) Anyone whose ever dealt with a difficult deal in business or law will recognize the emotionality and tone of the discussion. The strange element was that it was all caught on live TV. But don't listen to pearl clutchers.

3) Zelenskyy did indeed "start it" but Vance quickly escalated, rather than de-escalated. I found this dynamic rather odd as Vance had been silent the entire time and it was clearly Trump's show. But Trump then seemed to jump to Vance's defense and get really mad at Zelenskyy.

4) Deep annoyance with Zelenskyy clearly preexisted.

5) I really did not like Vance's escalation, asking a guy fighting for his country and life to come here and "thank" (grovel at the feet) the current admin. Trump and Vance are perfectly willing to fawn over Putin in diplomatic terms. How about giving a guy and a country who are fighting a much larger and more powerful foe a bit of respect for being the front line of freedom.

6) Side note - for those of us few true blue "liberals" who remain, the person in the US we should most worry about is Vance. Trump is a moderate, a deal maker and egomaniac who wants things like peace and economic opportunities to build. Is this such a bad thing? Vance is not cut from the same cloth. This guy is a real deal hardcore social conservative the likes of which we have not seen wielding significant power in the United States. Stop comparing him to other conservatives for a moment and think about this. JD Vance is smart and learning on the job. Consider how Biden sidelined Kamala within the first year of his presidency and sent her to the kids table. She did nothing for four years. Trump is training Vance. He's in the room with Zelenskyy and Putin. This guy is young and in 4 years will inherit Trump's campaign and political apparatus. He stands to be elected President for 8 years. And this guy is hardcore pro-life. He is not joking around on this issue. This guy would abandon Ukraine in a heartbeat. He does not for one second care "what's happening over there." This guy is not what we would call a "man of the world." He believes in "America first" and we will find out what that means. He's a hillbilly, essentially. Is he evil? No. Not at all. But he is also not a liberal. And he's going to run a superpower unless somehow the democrats can get their act together (they won't).

7) Despite the blow up, all the same incentives for a deal exist. And they will continue to exist. 

8) I wish Trump or Vance could articulate this better, but the proper historical consideration here is Germany post WW2. We did not insist on "freeing" all of Germany and go to war with the Soviets over it. The West kept hold of what we could - West Germany and drew a line in the sand. I recognize what Zelenskyy is saying about not rewarding invasion, etc., but ideas are not concrete reality. Europe and Ukraine cannot deter or defeat Russia on the battlefield. They can hold the line and so hold the line is what they will do. They cannot expect America to jump into the fight against a nuclear armed power and risk WW3 for 19% of their territory. It's a ludicrous ask.

9) And here's what needs to be said behind the scenes. Of course Putin will break the ceasefire when he can. So make it difficult for him to do and play for time. Crimea was 10 years ago. So keep your country alive for 10 more years. What happens then? Putin will be 82 years old. 

Logging

Film: Back In Action

Bad but not as bad as the ratings and rotten tomatoes suggest. This is exactly the type of thing Cameron Diaz does better than anyone in the world. It made me think of Knight and Day, a hugely underrated film. This one doesn't quite live up to that level because Netflix cheaps out on the set pieces and Jamie Foxx is no Tom Cruise. Pulling off this tone is real difficult.

Gavin Newsom's Destiny

Become a political podcaster in the Colin Cowherd podcast network.

Ukraine

Fascinating dynamics in these Ukraine discussions. More moderate takes here by Edward Luttwak and Tyler Cowen, both seemingly in mild support of Trump's efforts.

And then there's a former UK spy chief intelligently discussing the issue.

Spy chief points on an interesting angle - Putin needs Trump. If he angers Trump and the deal goes away - what's Putin's plan B? Will he have a better chance to make a deal in the future? Does he risk Beijing ever having second thoughts? Their own agenda? What if Europe gets their act together? What if Trump decides to continue to bleed Russia out of annoyance? 

On the positive side for Ukraine - giving up land looks bad from the Western perspective - it looks like it rewards Putin. But a reminder of what Putin loses in a ceasefire. Ukraine will exist. The Europeans will have awakened to the need to defend Europe. 

Putin is 72 years old. Maybe Russia regroups for rounds 2 and 3. When do those occur? And how old is Putin when they do?